In November 2006, there are 6,159 partisan legislative races in the 45 states that hold such elections in even-numbered years. Of those races, in 2,316 there is either no Democrat running, or no Republican running. This means that there is no contest between a Democrat and a Republican in 37.60% of all state legislative races this year.
In 2004, the story was similar; 38.7% of all legislative races had no contest between a Democrat and a Republican.
There are 10,725 individuals on the ballot as candidates for a state legislative election this year. That includes 5,178 Democrats, 4,824 Republicans, 272 Libertarians, 111 Constitution Party nominees, 75 Greens, 22 Working Families nominees, 17 Vermont Progressives, 16 Minnesota Independence nominees, 14 New York Conservatives, 9 Personal Choice nominees in Utah, 8 Reform nominees, 7 Peace & Freedom nominees in California, 5 New York Independence nominees, 5 Delaware Independent Party nominees, 4 Liberty Union nominees in Vermont, 2 Socialist Equality nominees, and one nominee from each of these parties: Alabama Freedom, Alaskan Independence, Idaho Unity, Socialist Workers, Socialist, Populist, Right to Life, United Citizens, and Mountain.
There are also 147 independent candidates, some of whom have labels other than just the word “independent”.
Almost all political parties in the U.S. have nominees in a smaller share of districts than they did in 2004. The only exceptions are the Democratic Party, the Peace & Freedom Party, the Delaware Independent Party, the Socialist Equality Party, and the Vermont Progressive Party. In 2004 the Republicans had nominees in 81.2% of the districts, but this year they have nominees in 78.3% of the districts. The Democrats, by contrast, had nominees in 80.2% of the districts in 2004, and have them in 84.1% this year.
The November 1, 2006 Ballot Access News paper edition will have the state-by-state details. In the case of individuals who have the nomination of more than one party, that individual was only counted once, according to his or her party membership.
38% is a serious understatement of the extent to which elections are really uncontested, because it does not include all of the districts in which the second major candidate is running only a token race with little or even no funding.
The 1st congressional district in Michigan is a good example of what Bob’s talking about. I get to choose between an incumbent Democrat, A “crazy-old man” Republican, and a Libertarian who no-one’s heard of. I’ll vote for the Libertarian, Ken Proctor, but his media buys are roughly zero, and the below-average, soft on war, incumbent Democrat will win.