On November 7, the New Jersey Secretary of State posted new registration data. The percentages: Democratic 35.64%; Republican 20.82%; Libertarian .09%; Conservative .06%; Green .05%; Constitution .04%; Socialist .02%; Natural Law .02%; Reform .01%; independent and miscellaneous 43.24%.
Percentages in January 2016 were: Democratic 32.10%; Republican 19.47%; Libertarian .05%; Green .02%; Conservative .01%; Constitution, Natural Law, Reform, and Socialist, under .01%. Socialist registration back then was only 25 voters in the entire state, but now it is 1,271.
There has been a huge increase for all minor parties, since February 2016.
Green +144% (1801)
Libertarian +107% (2792)
Reform +498% (309)
Constitution +1409% (2438)
Natural Law +2758% (1048)
Conservative +397% (2744)
Socialist +4984% (1246)
Clearly, the previous registration has little to do with the new registrations.
Libertarian (2792)
Conservative (2744)
Constitution (2438)
Green (1801)
Socialist (1246)
Natural Law (1048)
Reform (309)
When a voter registers, the registration form has a party question that is labelled optional. The instructions also say that the question is optional.
(12) Do you wish to declare a political party affiliation? (Optional):
[ ] YES. Name of Party: __________________
[ ] NO. I do not wish to declare a political party affiliation at this time.
No suggested party names are provided.
19:31-6.4.k states:
“k. In the event that the name of any political party entered on the voter registration form by a voter who wishes to declare a political party affiliation is not legible, the commissioner of registration shall mail the voter a political party declaration form and a letter explaining that the voter’s choice was not understood and that the voter should complete and return the declaration form in order to be affiliated with a party.”
I suspect what has happened is that voters who skipped the question; or perhaps selected register with a party and wrote-in “independent” were deemed to have made an illegible choice. New Jersey does not have “independents”. So if someone did not choose the unaffiliated check-box, and wrote-in something that might be equivalent to non-affiliated, what did they mean? Or if someone skipped the “optional” question entirely, what did they mean? Since they could have checked “unaffiliated”, skipping the question can’t be deemed unaffiliated.
I suspect the legislature meant to make party affiliation optional, but the form is written as if the question is optional.
On the other hand, “Political Party Affiliation Declaration Form” strongly encourages selection of a party. If you had registered to vote, and get a letter that said your party was unclear and were given a list of parties, you might choose one on a whim.
Since September when things seem to have stabilized after the presidential primary, new registrations are:
Unaffilliated 52.8%
Democratic 27.2%
Reform 12.5%
Libertarian 0.69%
Green 0.45%
Constitution 0.28%
Conservative 0.25%
Socialist 0.20%
Natural Law 0.10%
Reform 0.06%
In New Jersey, the only real purpose of party registration is to control access to the primary. Petition candidates aren’t really nominees of their parties, but rather petition candidates running with a party name or slogan.
Unaffiliated voters may affiliate with a party on primary election day. While some voters might switch to unaffiliated 55 days before the primary in order to pick a new party, I don’t suspect many voters do. But in 2008 and 2016, there have been large switches around the presidential primary.
Between June and August:
Unaffiliated -9.2%
Republican +8.5%
Democratic +11.1%
Between September and November:
Unaffiliated +4.2%
Republican +1.9%
Democratic +2.4%
I suspect that minor party increases will plateau as there will be relatively few new registrations over the next four years.
IIRC, there is not party qualification by registration in New Jersey, and all the parties listed on the form are there under court order.