On November 5, the Oregon Secretary of State posted new voter registration data. Scroll down to the third chart. It tells not only the number of registered voters in each party, but how many members of each party have already sent in their mail ballots. Percentages are: Democratic 38.45%; Republican 27.86%; Independent Party 4.64%; Libertarian .74%; Working Families .42%; Green .40%; Constitution .14%; Progressive .07%; independent and miscellaneous 27.27%.
Percentages in February 2016 were: Democratic 38.04%; Republican 29.62%; Independent Party 5.09%; Libertarian .79%; Working Families .53%; Green .43%; Constitution .16%; Progressive .09%; independent and miscellaneous 25.24%.
Man, every minor party lost percentages as did the republicans. I wonder why Oregon seems to be going in the opposite direction of most other states.
The cause is that Oregon now automatically registers everyone known to exist who is an adult citizen (except for the people who are notified that they are now registered and they respond that they don’t want to be registered). All those people are automatically considered independent voters, unless they affirmatively bother to choose a party.
Percents of ballots returned by party:
58.1% Republicans
58.0% Democrats
49.0% Independents
45.6% Green
41.7% Constitution
41.6% Other
41.2% Progressive
40.6% Libertarian
32.2% Unafilliated
27.7% Working Families
50.3% Total
Oregon LP needs a GOTV campaign.
Oregon SOS has statistics on their automatic registration program.
When someone has a transaction at the DMV (mostly drivers licenses, new or renewal), and are not currently registered, they are sent a card along with a pre-paid return envelope.
The recipient may:
(1) Opt out from registration, by returning the card. About 9% are opting out (and around 3% are undeliverable, which is treated as an opt out.
(2) Do nothing. They will be registered as unaffiliated. About 3/4 are doing this, but this is about 87% of those who are being registered).
(3) Return the card withing three weeks, with a selection of party (or to be unaffiliated).
The program began January 1, 2016 for current license applications. In June and July they did a mass mailing to those who had DMV license transactions in 2014 and 2015, and were not registered.
Overall, 89.3% of those registered under the program are unaffiliated (this compares to 24.3% of unaffiliated before the program began). Collectively, the Democrats and Republicans are under 10%, while they had 68% of current registrants. Independent Party got 0.89% of new registrants vs. 5.1% of current registrants. Libertarians 0.18% new vs. 0.79% current; Greens 0.07% of new vs. 0.43% of current.
There is some difference between the Phase I for those with transactions in 2016, and Phase II for those from 2014 and 2015. About 86% of 2016 licensees are ending up unaffiliated vs. 92% of 2014/2015 licensees. But those from 2014/2015 have gone through an additional screening.
Someone who got a new license in 2014 or 2015 would have been asked, would you like to register to vote? Some would say yes and be registered. Or since 2014, they would have had other opportunities to become registered over the past two years. These persons would not be sent notice that they were being registered because they were already registered. So the only persons from 2014/2015 being registered automatically, were people who said, “No thanks, I don’t want to be registered.” Some would be tired of the bureaucracy, but others would be totally indifferent about voting.
There seems to be a small uptick of people returning the card, as an election approaches. In the spring, some persons would have wanted to make sure they were registered as Democrat or Republican. If they had not returned the card, they would have been unaffiliated.
Nearing the general election, it would not matter if the card was returned, because they would be registered in any case. But some persons will misread the instructions or be uncertain about the overall registration.
Some voters may go online and change their party. This is probably easier than returning the card for many. In my case, I have to drive to a post office to mail anything. But someone who is casual about voting is not likely to update their party registration. If they were at the DMV and asked if they wanted to fill out a registration application, they might say yes, and select a party.
But now they get something in the mail If they bother to read it, It will give them an assurance that if they don’t do anything they are still registered. It is more effort to actually return a card to select a party.
In the May primary, only 6% of new unaffiliated voters voted, vs. 71% of new Democratic voters. Even 58% of new Green voters voted.
But this was only 19 of 33 voters, and at that that the 33, was only 0.08% of registered voters.
If the program continues, and voters don’t change their party affiliations, it could drive many of the minor parties off the ballot, and push the Independent Party back to minor party status.