Independent Party of Oregon Likely to Nominate by Convention in 2020, Instead of Primary

The Independent Party of Oregon statewide registration has slipped this year, so that it is 4.5% of the state total, below the 5% requirement to be entitled to its own government-administered primary. However, the party is more than willing to return to nominating by convention. It has learned during the years that it had a primary that it loses the ability to block major party candidates from also winning the Independent Party nomination via write-ins in the party primary. But when it nominates by convention, it doesn’t need to worry about that. See this story.


Comments

Independent Party of Oregon Likely to Nominate by Convention in 2020, Instead of Primary — 8 Comments

  1. EQUAL ballot access tests for ALL INDIVIDUAL candidates for the SAME office in the SAME area.

    Difficult ONLY for the 9 SCOTUS robot party HACKS —

    with their many ARBITRARY – aka LAWLESS ops – sig pcts, dates, etc.

  2. They are whistling past the grave when they claim they prefer to nominate by convention.

    About 88% of AVR registrants end up non-affiliated. Before AVR, when people went to the DMV, they were asked if they wanted to register. Most would say sure, and be handed a list of parties, most would pick D or R, but once I was available some would pick that. Some would say I’m in a hurry and say no thanks. Going to the DMV is not a wonderful experience. Wait in line to talk to a bored clerk, who wanders off to check on something. After you get to the head of the line, they open another line. Or they close the window of the most efficient and cheerful clerk as they cycle to breaks. You have to prove citizenship for a driver’s license, and at the end you pay $60. This may be the first experience in the maws of the Oregon Government.
    And of course, some people do not want to be registered to vote.

    Under AVR, the SOS checks whether the registrant is eligible to vote and is currently registered in Oregon. If registered elsewhere in Oregon, the address is updated. If new to Oregon the voter is sent a card that gives the voter the option to do nothing and they will be registered, or send it back in to be not registered, they are also given the option to choose a party.

    It is like the card from the dentist who wants to know how your wisdom tooth extraction went. “Is it a bill?” “It says it is not a bill, they just want to know if you liked the musack and the artwork on the wall – oh and here’s one, on a scale of 1 to 15, where 1 means the anesthetic worked, but the gloves had a mild taste, and 10 is excruciating pain.” “Toss it on the pile, and I might fill it out later after I get around to looking at the IKEA instructions” “You never read instructions”.

    About 6% return the card saying they don’t want to be registered. About 6% say they want to be D, 4% R, and 1% I, and less than 2% nonaffiliated. But the 2% who actively say they want to be non-affiliated are joined by the 85% who don’t bother.

    In the runup to presidential primaries there is a surge in new registrations, and conversions to D and R. This is particularly harmful to Pacific Greens, and Progressives, who lose about 1/3 of their registrations, but also hits the Independents and Libertarians. Then leading up to the general election there are a bunch of new registrations, and it also appears that many voters who had switched to vote in the primaries had switched back. Since many of these voters were conventional registrations, they were more likely to pick a party.

    In 2018, there were not mass conversions to vote in the primary. There was some growth leading in to ther general election. The Independent party barely qualified for a 2016 primary. In 2016, a bill was passed that based the denominator for qualification for the 2018 primary on July 2015, before AVR went into effect. The Independent Party qualified for a 2018 primary based on that.

    A similar bill was passed this year which would apply to the 2020 primary, but it will not go into effect until after the cutoff for qualification which is 275 days before the May primary.

    The article seems to believe that the law will apply to 2022 as well, or perhaps that a similar law will be passed in the future. That might or might not be true. Much of the growth in registration since 2015 was not due to casual voters conscripted by AVR, but growth in the state and interest in the 2016 primaries.

    Oregon should adopt Top 2.

  3. NOOO PARTY HACK REGISTRATIONS.

    NO primaries, caucuses and conventions

    Equal ballot access via equal secret nom petits / filing fees

    ONE election Day.

    All mail secret paper ballots.

    PR and AppV [pending Condorcet] and TOTSOP

  4. I am co-chair of the Independent Party of Oregon.

    First, our registration numbers have not slipped this year, or any year. Our registration of 124,704 is about 5,000 higher than when we were designated a major party 2 years ago and is about 15,500 higher than when we were designated a major party 4 years ago.

    The difference now is that Oregon at the start of 2016 adopted a “automatic motor voter” registration system that strongly discourages membership in any party. Prior to that, 76% of all Oregon registered voters were members of parties. Nearly all new registrations are now done through the motor voter system. Anyone dealing with the state DMV is automatically registered to vote (if not already registered) but is not offered a chance to join a party while at DMV. Instead, the Secretary of State sends each registrant a letter some weeks later, offering the person the opportunity to opt out of registration or to join a party (by returning a form in an envelope). Only 12% of the new registrants return the envelope with a party selection. That means, over the long run, the Independent Party of Oregon must earn as members about 42% of all new voter registrants in order to maintain major party status (which requires 5% of all registered voters, including NAVs). That is obviously impossible.

    The automatic registration numbers are large: 274,000 in 2016, 144,000 in 2017, and 160,000 in 2018. For comparison, Oregon overall voter registration went up by only 82,000 in 2017 and 103,000 in 2018.

    Under the new system, NAVs have increased from 527,000 to 925,000. Since the end of 2016, registration in the IPO has increased 5%, while registration in the Democratic Party has fallen by 1% and in the Republican Party has fallen by 1%.

    Second, IPO has never nominated by convention. It has used several different methods. In 2008 it nominated by means its IPO Caucus, elected by the members. In 2010, 2012, and 2014, it nominated by means of its own online primary election. The method for 2020 has yet to be determined.

  5. Correction to my comment above:

    Only 12% of the new registrants return the envelope with a party selection. That means, over the long run, the Independent Party of Oregon must earn as members about 42% of all new automatic voter registrants in order to maintain major party status (which requires 5% of all registered voters, including NAVs).

  6. Further Correction:

    Only 12% of the new registrants return the envelope with a party selection. That means, over the long run, the Independent Party of Oregon must earn as members about 42% of all new automatic voter registrants who choose a party in order to maintain major party status (which requires 5% of all registered voters, including NAVs).

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