Greenburg, Quinlan and Rosner, a polling firm that works for Democrats, has released a poll for the 2020 presidential race. Respondents were asked to choose among one of three Democrats, President Trump, and a hypothetical Libertarian nomination of Justin Amash.
Scroll down to question 57 for the Biden hypothethical: Biden 49%, Trump 40%, Amash 4%, someone else 2%, undecided or no answer 5%.
Question 59 has: Warren 48%, Trump 41%, Amash 5%, other 2%, undecided or no answer 4%.
Question 61: Sanders 48%, Trump 43%, Amash 5%, other 2%, undecided or no answer 2%.
Question 53, about the Republican presidential primaries, which was asked only of Republicans, found that Trump has 85% of the Republican primary vote.
Question 56, asked of Democrats, has the Democratic presidential primaries, and shows Biden leading the Democratic race. Thanks to Clifford Thies for the link.
It appears that, no matter who is the Democratic nominee, no candidate for President will get 50% in 2020.
Which 2020 minority rule Prez winner will produce USA Civil WAR II the fastest ???
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PR and AppV and TOTSOP
Due to baaade poll stats — Will Trump cause W-A-R from now [via attack on Saudi oil factory] to Jan 2021
— cancel Nov 2020 election — stay in POWER — aka coup d’etat ???
Will even RED Donkey bleeding heart communists take up 2 Amdt arms ???
Stay tuned — NO limit on LAWLESS wannabee tyrants.
This is the third poll to show Amash getting 4-5% iirc.
A poll you say? Ha ha ha haaa haaaa. F.U. Frank Lutz!
That’s not all that fantastic. Johnson was polling in high single to low double digits until a couple of months before the election last time. Chaffee or Weld would probably do better than Amash.
Biden, Warren and Sanders don’t have an absolute majority in this poll, but they are within margin of error striking distance. Any of these spreads, if they hold up, would amount to a decisive electoral college victory for the Democratic nominee in all probability. Of course, Trump will probably find some sort of war to get into or national emergency to make sure he stays in office, since he would probably go to prison not too long afterwards if he doesn’t.
Look at question 71 from this poll. This question asks for whom you voted in 2016. The poll indicates that 5% voted for someone other than Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Gary Johnson, or Jill Stein. That is way overstated, considering that Egg McMuffin got about half a percent, and his vote total exceeded all other third party candidates combined (almost double the combined vote of other third party candidates). The combined vote for McMuffin and everyone else (other than Clinton, Trump, Johnson, and Stein) was .86%. The poll significantly undersamples Johnson voters, as only 1% of respondents said they voted for Johnson, and, as we know, Johnson ended up with 3.27% of the vote. Hillary and Trump are also undersampled by approximately 2 percentage points. Stein is correctly sampled. Given this, I’m inclined to believe Amash’s support, right now, is closer to 7% than 4-5%.
This poll is meaningless.
LOTS more *meaningless* polls coming ???
— esp for RED Donkey Prez candidates in their debates scheme ???
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ANY polls about *important* stuff ??? –
Saving Democracy –
PR and AppV and TOTSOP
Tom P, the “other vote” for president in November 2016 was 7,829,054 votes, according to America Votes 2016. That was 5.7%. Hillary got 48.2% and Trump got 46.1%.
@TomP good observations. Note that people who were not motivated to vote in 2016, may “remember” voting for someone else. This is a known issue with self reporting of past (or future) behavior. Also keep in mind that Amash served as the “someone else” choice in this poll. If a Green, Constitution, Socialist or independent was also included, they would have split off some of the Libertarian votes.
Richard – Tom P said that Q 71 of the poll showed 5% voting for someone other than Trump, Hillary, AND Johnson and Stein.
According to the survey, 90% voted for either Trump or Hilary, 1% each for Johnson and Stein, 5% for someone else, and 3% either forgot or didn’t vote.
Ed Ng – There were no polls this early for Johnson or a generic libertarian candidate in the 2016 cycle that I can find. The earliest one that I see is from March, 2016, and then there were no more until May, 2016. Polls with 3rd party candidate this far out in the 2016 cycle usually asked about either Michael Bloomberg or… Donald Trump.
So I don’t know how comparable this poll is to the March, 2016 poll.
That poll over samples older folks. It has 42% of respondents age 55 or older when reality is 29%. Libertarians tend not to poll well with that age group. That might explain why the Johnson and Stein vote was under sampled. I’m not saying it would make a huge difference with Amash’s results, but it might add a point or two.
No real world model of socialism is “real socialism” after it has already been tried and, thus, failed. Whether we are talking about social democracy, democratic socialism, authoritarian Marxism, or the lice ridden hippie commune down the road existing in a quasi-market outside context, they’re all “real socialism” when they are in the hopeful planning stages, and the optimistic early stages. Then as yet another socialist experiment gets mired in the muck, it’s no longer “real socialism.” In which socialist countries do workers actually own the means of production, as opposed to bureaucrats claiming to rule in the name of workers, who are as quick to send an army of military and police workers to quell any actual workers uprising in their Potemkin village of a workers’ owned utopia as any robber baron is to call the Pinkerton guards?
How many *socialist* corporations — 1 *worker* = 1 share, ALL *workers* get same pay per hour ???