Public Policy Poll Includes Libertarians in Montana Poll for Three Statewide Races

Public Policy Polls has released these results for the presidential, U.S. Senate, and U.S. House races in Montana.

For President, when Gary Johnson is included, the results are: Romney 46%, Obama 43%, Johnson 7%, undecided 5%. When Johnson is omitted, the results are: Romney 50%, Obama 45%, 5% undecided.

For U.S. Senate and U.S. House, which are also both 3-way races, the results are: Senate- Democrat Jon Tester 45%, Republican Denny Rehberg 43%, Libertarian Dan Cox 8%, undecided 3%. Also, House- Republican Steve Daines 40%, Democrat Kim Gillan 37%, Libertarian Dave Kaiser 9%, undecided 15%. Thanks to Mike Fellows for the link.

Kansas Reform Party Chooses Virgil Goode for President in Place of Chuck Baldwin

A few days ago, the Kansas Reform Party state committee met via conference call and revised its presidential nominee from Chuck Baldwin (who doesn’t really want to run for President) to Virgil Goode. The Kansas Objections Board will decide whether to permit the party to change its nominee. The Board consists of the Lieutenant Governor, the Secretary of State, and the Attorney General. The Board meets on Thursday, September 13, at 2 p.m.

Tennessee Secretary of State Determines that Rocky Anderson Petition Has Enough Valid Signatures

On September 12, the Tennessee Secretary of State’s office determined that Rocky Anderson does indeed have enough valid signatures to be on the ballot. That office had originally found that he did not have enough. But the Anderson campaign identified some signatures that had been wrongfully disqualified, and the state now agrees that the petition is sufficient.

However, the Justice Party was unable to re-validate enough signatures in Arkansas, so Anderson will not appear on the Arkansas ballot.

The Anderson petition in Rhode Island appears likely to succeed; the state has tallied 995 valid signatures so far, with some towns still not having reported.

Huffington Post Carries Roger Stone Analysis of Gary Johnson’s Impact on Outcome of Presidential Election

Huffington Post has this commentary by Roger Stone. It points out that in nationwide polls, it appears that a majority of voters who intend to vote for Gary Johnson would be more likely to vote for Mitt Romney if Johnson weren’t running. But it also points out that in certain crucial swing states, there is data showing that Gary Johnson voters would be more likely to vote for President Obama if Johnson weren’t running.

Much commentary about the “spoiler effect” of minor party candidates is woefully unsophisticated. The Stone piece is a good reminder of that. There is other empirical evidence that the effect is complicated. In 2004, the nation’s leading polls determined that voters who intended to vote for Ralph Nader, by a slight margin, would have been more likely to vote for President Bush than for Senator Kerry. Also, in 1950, pollster Sam Lubell published his findings in “The Future of American Politics” that Progressive Party nominee Henry Wallace caused President Truman to defeat Thomas Dewey in 1948. And, a recent book called “Predictably Irrational” presented social science evidence to rebut the simplistic interpretation of “spoiling.”