This Quinnipiac Poll, released April 12, shows that Andrew Cuomo, the presumed Democratic Party nominee for Governor of New York, has a more than 2:1 lead over each potential Republican nominee for Governor. Cuomo’s lead over Rick Lazio is 55% to 26%, and the Cuomo lead over other potential Republicans is even greater.
Assuming this race doesn’t change much, 2010 will be a very favorable environment for minor parties that are not ballot-qualified to become ballot-qualified. New York gives groups only one method to become ballot-qualified: to poll at least 50,000 votes for Governor. Voters tend to be aware of polls, and when voters realize the race is, in realistic terms, already settled, they are more willing to vote for a minor party.
The last time a New York gubernatorial race was so overwhelmingly one-sided, in 1990, both the New Alliance Party and the Libertarian Party polled more votes for Governor of New York than at any time in their history, both before and after. In 1990, the New Alliance Party polled 31,089 votes for Governor and the Libertarian Party polled 24,611 votes. Neither party reached the 50,000 vote goal in 1990, but they came closer in 1990 than in any other year.
The New Alliance Party no longer exists as a political party, but the same people who comprised the New Alliance Party are still working together, in the Committee for a Unified Independence Party (CUIP), which seems to be gradually changing its name to Independent Voting.
too bad for the lpny that Golisano decided to challenge pataki/cuomo that year — Stern / Schulz would have easily gotten the 50,000 votes for state recognized party ballot status without Golisano sucking up all the political oxygen on the general election ballot. And of course Pataki/Powers also ran the Tax-cut Now party (aka the Pataki Party) independent nominating petition line.
1994
The Green Party is seeking to regain ballot status this year. The Greens attained ballot status for the first time in 1998, with “Grandpa” Al Lewis as the standard-bearer. They lost it in 2002, and failed to regain it in 2006, but each time received in the neighborhood of 42,000 votes, just missing the threshold.
Hopefully this bodes well for the Greens this year.
If the Kristen Davis campaign receives the Libertarian Party nod, I expect her to receive over 50k votes and qualify the LP. If she doesn’t, she says she’s create her own party, the Personal Freedom Party. I suspect this party would also have a shot at achieving the 50k vote barrier, but I think it is much less likely. Her campaign is going to be covered very well by the media because it is so interesting. She’ll also pull quite a bit of money, I think, because of her…ummm…*unique* friends, fundraisers, and donors.
I’m also hoping Paladino does not get the Republican or Conservative lines (both of which seem unlikely) so that he’ll run as a Tea Party candidate. With the sort of money he has promised to spend, he ought to be able to fetch 50k, too.
Should be interesting for New York.
Spitzer was around 75% in the polls four years ago.
Separate is still NOT equal — even in N.Y. State.
Brown v. Bd of Ed 1954
Every election is NEW and has ZERO to do with any prior election.
Way too difficult for the armies of MORON ballot access case lawyers to understand.
Who are the possible/likely/announced contenders for the NY Green gubernatorial nomination?
Don’t be suprised if the Greens endorse the Democrat this year. But I hope they run Howie Hawkins.
How about any Right To Life Party nominees in 2010?
Richard:
At this time which non-ballot qualified parties are you
aware of that have stated they intend to have someone
run for Governor this year?
The Greens are not going to endorse Cuomo. You are talking through your had, Mr. Clay.
Michael,
Unfortunately the Right to Life is basically defunct in New York, I do not expect them to even try to get back on the ballot–which is sad. They have a long, storied, history.
@ Scott West: Agreed that the Greens are NOT going to endorse a Democrat this year, or any year, for Governor. Howie Hawkins is the presumptive candidate at this point, though the convention is to be held on Saturday, May 15, and, unlike the major parties, the Greens usually hold conventions where the nominee is not a fait accompli.
Stay tuned. I don’t know if I’m allowed to post links here, but google Green Party of New York State. You’ll find the info you need there.
Sure, anyone can post a link.
Thanks, Richard.
That comment was a bit daft, since the login specifically asks for website info.
At any rate, check out, http://www.gpnys.org shortly after May 15 to view the slate of candidates the Green Party plans to offer for 2010.
Howie Hawkins will make a great candidate. He’s certainly been in enough campaigns and he’s an authentic working intellectual.
I often wonder why the Greens never run any candidates who are scientists or deeply respected environmental advocates/theorists. How cool would it be for the next Green Party US Presidential candidate to be James Howard Kunstler, or someone who had headed an organization like GreenPeace, or who maybe had a environmental science phd and had written a major book on global warming.
as a green, i probably wouldn’t support or vote for the greens if they did that. the green party is more than just an environmental party. although if we could get a leader from green peace to run, maybe i would support her/him
Judge Gleeson really took jurisdiction and created his own voter registration/enrollment form for the Green Party when they lost their ballot status and Gleeson kept them on voter enrollment roll list (along with LP/RTP) later modified to “other”. — I felt that Gleeson should have separated enrollment from registration.
@Will
Yes, but they’re called the Green Party and they use a flower as their symbol. That sends a pretty clear message that they’re comitted to environmental issues. Might as well go with it. I’m not saying every candidate the Greens run must be an environmental scientist, but certainly some of them should be. It bugs me that the Greens always run capitol A “Activists” and candidates who seem suspiciously unqualified for office. If your going to run under the banner of a Party that bases its views on a systematic ideology that makes claims of scientific validity, why not have scientists backing it up. Most voters think of the Greens as environmental advocates. They should always, always, always talk about the environment.
@ clay
But you’d take Andrew Cuomo, too? Oh well.
Ballot Access proposed:
– 5% of the votes for the winning candidate in any statewide race
– Small filing fee for each candidate
– For independent and new party candidates, signatures equal to 5% of all the votes for third party candidates
With registration waining (and it is) I think the Greens are gradually going to start holding their noses and just conominating the democrat in ballot access years. It wouldn’t suprise me, at least. I’m not into this at all. But I think it might become a necessity. The Greens are weird. They’re the party that runs a hardline platform of social inclusion, peace, feminism, etc….and that’s great. But the candidates they run for major offices seem to be regularly selected by processes that are pretty undemocratic. They are secretive. They don’t seem as open as they could be.
Derek, I’ll take .50% for the winning candidate statewide and you’ve got a deal.
@Clay: I’m not sure why you say that the Greens are secretive, and select candidates in an undemocratic way. I’m a State Committee member, and have been part of the process of selecting candidates before. The Greens sent out a mailing to all the registered Greens in New York State soliciting their opinion on who our candidates should be this year. While it’s not a binding decision, I don’t know what else we could do, short of inviting all 25,000 or so Greens to the convention, but that would be very unwieldy.
As for registration going down, that’s correct, of course, since we lost ballot status. It’s an extra step of choosing “Other,” then writing in “Green Party” where before, the name of the party was on the registration form. Hopefully we’ll get ballot status back this year, then surely our numbers will begin to climb once again.
I had to comment since your post was really interesting, but I was wondering If the US senate has a hard time understanding the new health care bill from Obama how can common folks? When will we be able to understand what he has done?