Professor Michael P. McDonald of George Mason University, one of the nation’s leading experts on voter registration data, has calculated that since November 2008, the number of registered voters in the states that have registration by party has declined 2.6%. This is not surprising, because elections officials customarily work between elections to purge the lists of deadwood. See his summary here.
McDonald has also calculated that since November 2008, the number of registered Republicans has declined 3.5%, the number of registered Democrats has declined 2.7%, the number of registered independents has declined 1.6%, and the number of voters registered in minor parties has increased 2.4%. McDonald also notes that research has shown that voters who are registered in minor parties are more sophisticated and more politically active than average voters. Thanks to Rick Hasen for the link.
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I posted the following comment in regards to his conclusions about the phenomenal growth of the Maryland Independent Party:
“As a Maryland resident and third-party activist, I contend that the growth of the Maryland Independent Party is not due to any measurable political trend except that Marylanders believe that they are registering as “independent†voters, not as a member of an “Independent Partyâ€. Maryland ballots have an “unaffiliated†option meant for voters to check if they do not wish to affiliate with a political party. But voters check the “Independent†box instead, not knowing that they are affiliating with a party. There is no organized “Independent Party” in Maryland.
The Maryland Independent Party website linked to in the article is not the political organization recognized by the state as the “Independent Party”. The organization recognized by the Maryland Board of Elections was formed by Ralph Nader’s 2008 Presidential campaign. He chose the “Independent Party” name in Maryland and several others states. Although he and his supporters have not been organizing campaigns in Maryland since that election, the party continues to grow for the reason above.”
Because of the ambiguity in the name, the Maryland Independent Party is close to becoming a major party in Maryland having its own state-funded primaries. This should be an interesting development for ballot-access watchers.
Brian Bittner does not clarify if he favorably supports the possibility that a “Maryland Independent Party” may become, because of its registration growth,a major or recognized party in that state with the right to hold its own primary elections. He seems to take the position that because some voters may think they are registering as straight-out or no party “independent” that this somehow taints the significance of what is happening.
There are millions of Americans who think of themselves as “independents” (lower case “i”) or “Independents” (capital “I”). And I am convinced that most of them do not care whether such ambiguity results in “partisan” efforts under that label or not, but they are expressing the way they feel politically and that is of being “INDEPENDENT!”
Yes, there are “left-wing” Independents just as they are “right wing” Independents who would fight like cats and dogs in an Independent Primary. But the same is true with Democrats and Republicans.
But most Independents know that this label brings out one thing they all have in common, and that is they are sick and tired of a Democratic and Republican dominated election process.
I trust the Maryland Independent Party will become a ballot-positioned party with its own primary election, and that such phenomenon will be repeated in other states where there is not already an “Independent Party” or a party of a similar name.
I’m only saying that the findings might be slightly skewed because I believe the registration numbers in Maryland do not point to an increase in people affiliating with a minor party called the Independent Party, but to an increase in people who believe they are registering as unaffiliated voters. The author believes this is an important distinction when he writes that “people who identify with minor political parties tend to be more sophisticated than those who are unaffiliated with any political party” and makes further points based on this distinction. So I was just adding some new information to help further the scholarship, which I appreciate.