According to this article, an official of the Washington state Secretary of State’s office says the turnout in this month’s primary will be approximately 40%. If the final figures show exactly 40%, or lower, then that will be the lowest turnout in Washington state history in gubernatorial election years, at least back to 1936. Statistics for the number of voters registered in time for primaries, for years before 1936, were not preserved, so no one can calculate precise primary turnout earlier than 1936.
Washington state has always elected its Governors, and its other statewide executive offices, in presidential election years. Turnout (i.e., the number of people who vote in the primary, divided by the number of registered voters at the time of the primary) has been: 1936 64.11%, 1940 61.81%, 1944 44.27%, 1948 43.05%, 1952 53.43%, 1956 51.91%, 1960 49.64%, 1964 55.01%, 1968 44.98%, 1972 49.12%, 1976 43.24%, 1980 46.95%, 1984 40.31%, 1988 40.11%, 1992 45.80%, 1996 42.00%, 2000 40.80%, 2004 45.14%, 2008 42.60%.
Voting in Washington state is easier than ever, because for the first time in a gubernatorial year, this year every county sent every registered voter a ballot in the postal mail. Washington used the top-two system starting in 2008, and proponents insisted that turnout in primaries would rise. No incumbent is running for Governor in 2012, so one would have expected a higher turnout than in 2008, when the incumbent Democratic Governor was running for re-election, so there was no real contest in the Democratic primary in 2008.
1936 and 1940, 60+% turn out in a gubenatorial primary. Impressive. Martin was probably WA State’s “best’ governor, in my opinion.
It’s true. When the Secretary of State office came out with a prediction that there’d be a 46% turnout I did laugh out loud right then, there. At this write less than 36% of ballots have been returned in Shohomish County. More than three-quaters of ballots from the precinct I vote in have been returned. Other precincts are worse.
There’s a lot of baloney in the newspapers about how the primary was moved back to eary August to accomodate overseas ballots and that the electorate must have several election cycles at the same time of the year to get turnout back up to half of ballots being returned. (still, abysmal turnout really) The unfamiliar time of the year explanation is just a load.
The culprit causing bad turnout is the top two format. Without bringinmg up here every repulsive aspect of top two–there are more than several–the turnout killer is its contribution to predictable outcomes.
It is easier to gauge the outcome of an election when there is only one large single electorate as canidates vie for a plurality or plurality runner-up. It’s simply easier to project results before balloting, and that dynamic defacto constitutes most of the contest, before one ballot is even returned. The system discourages credible candidacies, the syatem allows media to report with great accuracy who’ll be standing after the formal vote. Very few upsets. Very little drama. Even in the DelBene-Burner race, the final result was telegraphed real well if only a week or so out.
Voters need, democracy needs, candidates need (though they’d not admit it)electoral contests that cannot be predicted very well. That will boost turnout. Having a multiplicity of ways of advancing and winning even over that of a at-large obsession on plurality is the key to better turnout.
Voters need to ask themselves if they are prepared to get better results by sacrificing knowing who’s going to win before balloting.
It’s the difference between ratifying (mindless sheeple) and choosing (mindful electors)
Top two is great for sheeple. Most don’t really want to be sheeple and so turnout is depressed.
3/4th of ballots in my precinct have NOT been returned.
Turnout in King County is up relative to 2008. While Pierce County was the last holdout, in-person voting was much more significant in King County in 2008.
Oddly enough, Pierce County was one of the leaders in switching to mail balloting, with around 80% of voters getting their ballot by mail when others were around 50%. But then they apparently decided they were special, and even though turnout among non-mail voters was horrid, they clung to the fiction of meeting the neighbors at the polling place.
Had King County been all-mail voting in 2008, it is quite likely that turnout for the initial Top 2 primary would have been greater than for the initial Pick-A-Gulag primary in 2004. Ron Sims, the King County Executive, was a candidate for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in 2004 and pushed turnout in King County. Without Sims on the ballot, and many of his supporters having to make a trip to the polling place, turnout dropped. There was a tiny drop in neighboring Snohomish, Pierce, and Kitsap counties, but generally an increase in the rest of the state. With about 30% of the electorate, King County has a significant effect on turnout.
What is quite notable is the increase in turnout in the off-year general election. 2010 had the highest turnout since 1970, before the introduction of the 18-year-old vote. It is doubtful that this increase can be attributed to the superior quality of the general election candidates produced by Top 2 primary, but is likely directly tied to all mail voting.
If we compare the turnout between the 2nd Pick-A-Gulag primary in 2006, and the 2nd Top 2 primary in 2010, both of which featured not particularly competitive senate races, there is no comparison. While the number of voters plummeted by 26% between 2004 and 2006, it increased by 1% from 2008 to 2010. By focusing on the gubernatorial primary, BAN misses this significant change.
Turnout in 2004 was up because of the presence of Ron Sims on the primary ballot, and it dropped like a rock once he was not on the ballot, and the novelty of the Pick-A-Gulag primary had worn off. Votes cast in the 2nd Top 2 primary in 2010 was slightly higher than 2008, though the turnout was off due to an increased number of registered voters.
The hypothesis that turnout in the primary was due to the Top 2 format simply is not supported by the data.
So why is turnout lower?
BAN suggests that the fact that there is not an incumbent governor running for re-election should have attracted more voters. But the truth is that Jay Inslee and Rob McKenna were no more challenged than Christine Gregoire and Dino Rossi were in 2004. McKenna as Attorney General personally argued the Top 2 case before the US Supreme Court and won. In 2008 he was easily re-elected with 59% of the vote, 12% more than Rossi. Inslee has run for State office before and was willing to give up his congressional seat to run.
Voter registration has increased at a much faster rate than the population. Registration is up 9.2% since the 2008 primary, compared to 4.2% in the previous quadrennium, despite significantly slowed population growth.
Between the 2004 primary and the 2004 general election registration increased 7.0%. But by the 2006 general election it had dropped back 7.0%. In other words, the registration influx for the 2004 presidential election was not permanent, attracting voters who only respond to registration drives or only vote in presidential general elections.
Between the 2008 primary and the 2008 general election registration increased 6.2%, similar to that in 2004. But by the 2010 general election, it had only dropped 0.8%, and instead of having to rebuild after the losses following a presidential election was able to expand either farther.
Turnout is measured as the number of voters divided by the number of registered voters. Either a decreased in voters, or an increase in registration without a commensurate increase in voters can cause a decrease in turnout.
Since the population has not been increasing as fast, it appears that it is now harder to be removed from active registration status. If a mail ballot is successfully delivered, or there is a new mailing address within the county, a voter remains registered. If a voter moves to another county, an effort is made to track the voter down and keep his registration active.
So the most casual voters who only vote in presidential general elections and never in non-presidential elections nor primaries, remain registered.
Younger voters are much less likely to vote in primaries
Age Bracket
in Top 2 Primary, Aug 19, 2008
in General Election, Nov 4, 2008
in General Election, Nov 2, 2010
08P 08G 10P
18-24 18% 68% 40%
25-34 19% 74% 50%
35-44 27% 82% 64%
45-54 41% 87% 75%
55-64 58% 91% 85%
65+ 72% 91% 88%
Those 65+ who were registered in 2008 were 23% more likely than registered 25-34 YO in the 2008 general election, and registration is also higher among older voters.
But only 25% of those general election 25-34 YO voted in the primary. Actually less than 25%, since registration increased by 6.2% between the 2008 primary and general election and this was highly concentrated among younger voters. Meanwhile 80% of the senior-citizen general election voters also voted in the primary. In fact, someone over 65 who was registered was as likely to vote in the primary and a 25-34 YO was to vote in the general election, assuming they were registered.
Traditionally, voter participation increased when people became more connected to their community – getting married, having children, buying a home, where they had a more direct concern about the welfare of other persons and your own property. As fewer people are married, delaying chidren, not buying houses, they are less likely to become regular voters. And it appears that this trend has pushed well past the 20s and 30s, but well into middle age, and this is not enough to be counteracted by an aging electorate (eg 46 YO in 2012 are behaving like 44 YO in 2008).
It does appear that there is some increased interest in the primary when the contests are seen as meaningful, or candidates are actively competing for votes. The gubernatorial and senatorial primaries in 2008 and 2012 had no suspense. But legislative districts in King County had turnout ranging between 35% and 45%, with the highest turnout in those districts that had a competitive primary due to an incumbent not seeking re-election. It appears that 20% to 25% of the voters who did turn their ballots back in may have been driven by competitive legislative race where it was not obvious who the Top 2 would actually be, and there were candidates and supporters running around encouraging voters to actually turn in their ballot.