On October 2, Research & Polling released a presidential poll for New Mexico, taken after the September 26 presidential debate. The results: Hillary Clinton 35%, Donald Trump 31%, Gary Johnson 24%, undecided or other 8%. See this story.
Ballot Access News
Edited By Richard Winger
538 gives Johnson a 1.2-4.6% chance of winning New Mexico
Among Independents, Johnson is at 42%, while Clinton and Trump are at 43% _combined_ (20% and 23%, respectively). That’s extraordinary.
NM is turning into a true 3-way race. Now if the people that are backing Trump and Clinton out of fear for the other winning the state went to Johnson he’d win NM.
I think if the LP passes the 5% threshold and gets public funding that things will be set up to provide a nice springboard for Bill Weld to make a run in 2020 if he so desires.
@Will Fenwick:
I don’t think Weld will run in 2020. Look for the possibility that Rand Paul may go Libertarian, like his dad, if Trump wins.
The large number of states they will have achieved ballot access on from Johnson’s run this year will save the LP large sums of money that it can use on the actual campaign rather than paying for ballot access expenditures.
Will, Walter… neither are going to happen. Rand Paul isn’t a Libertarian, he’s a Paleo-Conservative (he would fit in the Constitution Party) and the core of the Libertarian Party is furious that Weld is the VP candidate. He won’t make it past the convention as the Prez nominee… he barely got the VP nod this time.
I have this uneasy feeling that the Libertarians will go the way of the Reform Party and fall off the map. If Adam Kokesh wins the nomination, it throws the LP’s credibility out the door. Look for Austin Petersen or Rep. Steve Rigell, the only sitting congressmen endorsing Johnson.
The Libertarians don’t necessarily have to focus on only the 2020 Presidential Election if they get the 5%. One of the Senate Seats for New Mexico is up in 2018 and Gary Johnson could always make a play for it. Winning would be a reasonable goal for Libertarians and would introduce them to the mainstream even more.
I was polled in a KOBTV poll last night, and when I chose “Jill Stein” as one of the five options (Trump, Clinton, Johnson, Stein, other), the poll actually asked if I would be voting “for Jill Stein”, “against Clinton”, or “against Trump”. New one on me.
Vulpes that really is their only play barring a Presidential win. Johnson and Weld run in NM and MA respectively for senate. They also will have a solid candidate in Larry Sharpe who is considering a run for NY governor in 2018. If the three of them get elected at those levels they’d have two solid candidates (Johnson and Sharpe) for the presidency in 2020. I don’t see Johnson getting a third nomination though. So the clear front runner, if he gets elected in NY, would be Sharpe.
If none of the happens they’re screwed for 2020. They have no existing viable candidate related to the party besides Johnson and Weld. I foresee three of the four currently sitting Lib state legislatures losing re-election this year. The only reason the fourth won’t lose her seat is because she’s not up for re-election.
Ultimately, the Libertarian party is going to need to get candidates elected down ballot to be successful in the long term. US Senate races are a good place to start. If you get elected to the Senate, you have a platform for six years. I’ve read that the Libertarian US Senate candidate in Florida is polling around 10%.
Johnson has disclaimed interest in running again in 2020 and in doing so made it sound like he’s going to retire from politics altogether.
I hope Gary Johnson campaign is doing one thing .That is ending the misinformation and ignorance about the Libertarian party that has been going around for several years .The claim the Libertarian party was founded and associated with the political extremist LyndoLarouche Jr There are those who think the Green party was founded by Ralph Nader to .There is misinformation that the Libertarian party is a Socialist party oran extreme right wing party .Or someone who has no mind thinks that Tim Mcveigh and Terry Nichols who were associated with the Oklahoma city bombing were associated with Libertarian party and the branch Dravidians were associated with Libertarian party .Someone who got there information watching the old tabloid. show Hard Copy . Misinformation and ignorance political wise makes me very angry .
I guess many people are to stupid to pay attention to politics and don’t bother to register to vote .
I don’t mean to sound like iam down on non voters or those who still vote for the major party’s .I live in Southwest Missouri where there is very little Libertarian party presence and hardly no green party presence.I use to Live in Houston Texas where there are an active Libertarian and Green party presence .The Libertarian party longer.Gary Johnson hasn’t really campaigned here in Missouri yet .I don’t know if there are any door to door campaigning yet by the Libertarian and Green party’s yet .Northwest and North Central Missouri has a Libertarian and Green party Presence in some areas.I personally advocate a bill board campaign on interstate 49 and I 435 here in Missouri.
AMcCarrick–Rand Paul will not go C.P. because he’s not as conservative as he claims. Brady Olson–the L.P. will not go the way of the Reform Party.They’ve done an excellent job of getting the party together on the state and local levels. Something the Reform Party could only dream of.
The Libertarian party is philosophical party not a party of personality like the Democratic and Republican party’s .They should run their campaigns as grass roots campaigns that will be successful.
Lots of folks are marginal ILLITERATE — i.e. can NOT read — even the instructions and names on a ballot.
See the ballots in various foreign nations having party logos/symbols and even mini-pictures of candidates.
Did you hear about William welds plan .Sounds like another Wayne Allyn Root .He wants to work with Mitt Romney to rebuild the GOP
He wants to spend the rest of the cpaign to attack Trump and guess he is frustrated with Johnson over his minor gaffes . According to reports .He also might give up the Libertarian party altogether.Guess he could be like Lowell weicker .Joke Candidate .
Johnson/Weld is a joke, especially the latter. Hopefully 2020 will nominate some actual libertarians.