On October 12, Y2 Analytics released this presidential poll for Utah, showing that no presidential candidate has more than 26%. The results: Hillary Clinton 26%, Donald Trump 26%, Evan McMullin 22%, Gary Johnson 14%, Jill Stein 1%, other 3%, undecided 7%. Probably the bulk of the “other” vote is for Darrell Castle, because the Constitution Party is strong in Utah.
Ballot Access News
Edited By Richard Winger
This news also out of New Mexico: http://independentpoliticalreport.com/2016/10/unm-college-republicans-back-gary-johnson-for-president/
Whoa…at this rate we might see McMullin carry Utah, and Johnson New Mexico. I bet this poll won’t make Real Clear Politics’ list of polls, lol
Joshua, you’re right; so far anyway, Real Clear Politics doesn’t have this poll, even though it has some other state presidential polls today.
Although RCP has been more inclusive at the Presidential level than it was in 2012, the possibility of two third party candidates each winning a state would cause the fans of the “Two-Party System” to have a fit. I wish Jill could manage to win a state; if enough Bernie Sanders supporters would just see that she is more in alignment with their beliefs than Clinton or Johnson, she could end up winning Vermont. Sadly, Correct the Record’s trolls have done a number on us Greens this year, damn them.
I really hope people think twice about casting a ballot for McMullin. Yes, I realize that this particular website might not be the most open to voicing this particular opinion, but I see nothing good that comes from his candidacy.
IMO, he made the decision to run far too late. At least all the other candidates, both major and third party, have been running for a while and thus, have been vetted. By virtue of his late start, he was able to gain a ballot line in only 11 states. Yes, he has a lot of write in access, but as I’ve learned recently, write in access isn’t advertised by the states who would recognize those write in votes. In my mind, if all you have is write in access, you might as well not be on the ballot.
What this means is that he effectively will not be able to be considered by Americans in 39 states and the District of Columbia. I can’t imagine any scenario where he gets more than 1% of the total overall vote cast for President. Despite this, his theory of winning is to pick off one state, deadlock the electoral college, and have the House pick him over Hillary or Trump. Meanwhile, Johnson is on the ballot in all 50 states plus DC, and Stein is on the ballot in 44 states plus DC. A broad cross section of America can evaluate Johnson and Stein and vote for them if that’s what they want. In Johnson’s worst case scenario, he ends up with only 6% of the vote (I think that’s his floor), but that will amount to approximately 8 million votes. Stein will probably get about 3 million. McMullin would have us believe that he should rightfully be selected president over Hillary, Trump, Johnson or Stein, despite getting many millions fewer votes than any of them. I find this completely undemocratic, and the fact that he bases his victory strategy on this is something I find deeply offensive.
Based on his public statements, McMullin views Johnson as unqualified and unserious. That’s laughable, when you consider Johnson’s experience. Yes, Johnson can be inarticulate, but the breadth of experience more than makes up for that, and is far greater than what McMullin brings to the table. Meanwhile, compare that with some of McMullin’s misfires, which include not being able to get on the ballot in TN, despite needing to get only 275 signatures (how hard can that be?) and only now finding a running mate. Those sorts of things should be table stakes when it comes to evaluating a candidate. McMullin should find a way to meet with Johnson, discuss their many areas of common ground, find a way to bridge their differences (which aren’t that many), and then McMullin should drop out and endorse Johnson. Perhaps he could be Secretary of State (which he is greatly qualified for) in a Johnson administration.
My early Christmas wish list:
McMullin carries Utah
Johnson carries New Mexico
Stein carries Vermont
No candidate ends up with 270 votes.
How many people were polled .That’s the question .People could lie to the pollsters to
I want to see Gary Johnson win Colorado in honor of David Nolan the Late founder of the Libertarian party and the creator of the Nolan chart .The Libertarian party was founded in Colorado after all .I would have faith in the people of Colorado if that happens .
I agree with TomP’s commentary with one big exception.
He wrote “In Johnson’s worst case scenario, he ends up with only 6% of the vote (I think that’s his floor)…”
How about a friendly wager (not money as it’s probably illegal and will get Richard in trouble – how about a post here in all capital letters saying that I was wrong and that other guy was right). I’ll take under 5%, you take over? My contact is don.wills@me.com.
Y2 polled 500 people. FiveThirtyEight gives Y2 Analytics a C+ rating. The margin of error is 4.38%.
Only disgruntled Republicans will vote for Mr Cia Mcmullin .How many people voted for Lieutenant colonel James Bo Gritz in 1992 in Utah when he ran on the Populist party/American first ticket .I rather keep reading my conspiracy books and publications about gloom and doom than vote for Mcmullin.Anthony Sutton is so much fun to read .
I believe McMullin is Mormon, which would explain why he’s doing so well in Utah. But yes, while I too am rather annoyed that he entered the race so late and expects to win (I even made an impromptu impersonation/satire of him at the recent Illinois Green Party state meeting, heh), I am far more annoyed with the so-called “Two-Party System”. Between Johnson, McMullin, and Jill, I think we can knock it down a few pegs this year and deny Clinton and Trump any chance of receiving over 50% of the popular vote.
Hell. with the two party system and the electoral college. Anything that messes it up I’m for.
Does anybody read anything by So called Libertarian Eric Dondero.He is backing Trump .He’s a propagandist anyways .
People in Ohio are already voting early . Encourage your friends and family in Ohio to vote third party .Now .
I predict Johnson only receives 2% total, maybe 2 1/2 tops.
Beg pardon for the brain fart of misreading Utah for New Mexico.
“Only disgruntled Republicans will vote for Mr Cia Mcmullin.”
There’s more of them than there are any base for a third party. Unless people want to be delusional and think the height of Johnson’s support nationally is not down to disgruntled Republicans and is more down to “Hey, I think libertarianism is a pretty cool philosophy, I’ll support that!”, which from past experience there’s a lot of crackpots in third party politics, so it wouldn’t surprise me.
I’d probably vote for McMullin if he were on the Indiana ballot. He’s not and the only person I can vote for besides Hillary and Donald is Mr. Johnson, and I don’t believe in write-ins. So draconian ballot access rules is responsible for the Libertarian nominee getting one more vote.
I think greenies and libertarians are upset that this guy could potentially get into the race post-Conventions and will have come closer to accomplishing something neither of them have come close to in 40 years, winning a state. It’s like the third party morons that hated Ross Perot. In the anonymous world of message boards and comment forums, much gnashing of teeth and angry typing!
This whole election puts us at a crossroads on whether to keep the electoral college. It helps and kills third parties. It helps by giving you a chance of winning even if you aren’t on the ballot in every state. However, it kills third parties because the Electoral College is only meant for two parties. If there were 3 major parties, the EC would always just be deadlocked and no one would be satisfied.
What is the smallest percentage a candidate every carried a state with? How about since 1950?
Kevin the elections of 1912, 1924, 1948, 1960, and 1968 would disagree with you.
Okay, I stand corrected, RCP included the Utah Poll with McMullin’s 22%. The “Two Party System” is taking a beating this year, and good riddance.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/
In U.S. history, the smallest share of the popular vote that the presidential winner received in any state was Idaho 1912. Woodrow Wilson carried Idaho with 32.1%.
Since 1950, the answer is Nevada 1992. Clinton carried it with 37.4%.
Did you see the story on Breitbart that Trump is leading Clinton by 2 points .That could change .How many people do they poll anyways .
Ross Perot didn’t win not States .George Wallace did .He won 5 states and received second place in two states .He won over over 20 county’s in Texas .So George Wallace was the last real third party independent candidate that was successful.Its to to bad he didn’t run as an independent in 76 or 80 .Also George Noory of Coast to Coast Am said a buddy of his had information from an insider the Elections could be cancelled.Think about it .
The Green party was formed in the 1980s and ran it’s first Presidential candidate in 86 unless Ron Daniels who ran in 92 was the there first official candidate .The Libertarian party was formed in 1971 and ran it’s first candidate Dr John Hospers.in 1972 and received one electoral vote.In 1976 the Libertarian party ran Roger McBride who co created the most popular Television show in the 1970s Little House on the Prairie then in 1983 he became a Republican again and helped formed the Republican organizing committee before the Republican Liberty Caucas.was formed
.He also started the Liberty congressional committee or caucas.Will any Democrats or register independents vote for Evan Mcmullin.Iam not Mormon so I will not vote for someone like him because of religious disagreements.I voted For Ron Paul in 1988.My first vote in a Presidential election.If I could have voted in 84 I would have voted For Lyndon H Larouche Jr..when he ran as an independent in Texas.
McMullin has managed to fly under the radar in Utah and even moreso nationally; whereas Gary Johnson has been a target of opposition attacks from both major parties for months.
That ends now. His campaign had less than $50,000 on hand at last report. Even if the Utah-GOP is ambivalent about it; the Trump campaign could dump ten times that into Utah and not even miss it. So could Clinton, who’s still a lot closer to winning the state.
Prediction: the opposition research files are going to start getting dumped on McMullin in Utah. He’s inflated his resume. He’s inexperienced. He couldn’t pick a running mate in time to get them on the ballot. His lack of national ballot access. Perhaps his association with the neo-conservative wing of the party that is squishy-to-moderate on social issues. And probably two or three or four personal-scandal skeletons he’s got in the closet that we haven’t heard about yet. He hasn’t got any negative attention because he hasn’t merited it; an oversight that will rapidly be corrected if this outlier result holds up in other polling.