MAJOR PARTY SHARE OF REGISTRATION DECLINES AGAIN

LIBERTARIAN AND CONSTITUTION PARTIES ONLY PARTIES UP

During 2018, the share of voters who are registered in the two major parties continued to decline. The only two nationally-organized parties that gained (as a percentage of the electorate) during 2018 are the Libertarian and Constitution Parties.

For the first time in at least 80 years, the share of voters registered Democratic is under 40%, and now stands at 39.82%. The percentage of registered independents increased, to 28.74%. Republicans are 29.22%.

See the chart on page four for a state-by-state breakdown of registration as of fall 2018.

Here is the percentage of voters who are members of both major parties:

1992	80.73%
1994	80.68%
1996	79.48%
1998	78.20%
2000	76.62%
2002	75.23%
2004	74.98%
2006	74.03%
2008	74.34%
2010	73.56%
2012	71.95%
2014	70.96%
2016	69.97%
Early 2018	69.33%
Fall 2018	69.04%

Of course, all of this data is from the 31 states that ask voters to choose a party, when they fill out a voter registration form. The other 19 states do not ask the question, so they don’t generate this type of data.

On October 9, the Utah Republican Party asked the U.S. Supreme Court to hear Utah Republican Party v Cox, 18-450. The issue is the extent to which the First Amendment gives political parties control over their own nomination process. Generally, the Freedom of Association Clause gives organizations autonomy over how they operate. But Utah law tells the Republican Party that it must allow candidates on the primary ballot who have not shown any substantial support at a party endorsement meeting. The lower court upheld the law.

The Utah Republican Party brief tackles head-on the dicta written by Justice Byron White in 1974. He wrote "it is too plain for argument" that states may require parties to nominate by primary. However, he said that in American Party of Texas v White, and that case did not involve any party that was fighting for the right to nominate by convention. There was no evidence or briefing on that issue. The Utah Republican Party is not opposed to using a primary, as long as the candidates on the primary ballot all have substantial support from party meetings. But the party is obliged to deal with the 1974 language, and to argue that it should not control the case, and that is was wrong.

Although the U.S. Supreme Court hasn’t taken a case brought by a minor party since 1991, generally the Court takes cases brought by state units of the Republican or Democratic Parties. If the court takes this case, and rules for the party, the consequences for election law will be very important.

The Working Families Party is awaiting a decision of the Pennsylvania Supreme Court, in its case to expand the use of fusion. The Court heard argument on September 25, in Working Families Party v Commonwealth, 435 MD 2016. The case includes a legislator who wants both the Working Families and Democratic labels.

Pennsylvania already allows fusion for the two major parties. A candidate can receive the nomination of both the Democratic Party and the Republican Party if he or she wins both party primaries. Candidates can only win the primaries of parties they are not a member of, with write-in votes. Every election year, about five or six Pennsylvania state legislators win the nominations of both major parties.

The Working Families Party lawsuit, if successful, would expand fusion, so that parties without primaries could also engage in fusion. The case was filed in 2016, and lost in the Commonwealth Court on September 18, 2017, by a vote of 6-1.

The Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled in February 2018, in League of Women Voters v Commonwealth, that the State Constitution gives more protection to voting rights than the U.S. Constitution does. That helped defeat gerrymandering.

The lawsuit filed by the Montana Green Party is moving. The case concerns the March 15 petition deadline and the unequal county distribution requirement. Both sides have filed briefs. However, the case won’t be settled in time for 2018.

Arizona: the Ninth Circuit will hear oral argument in Libertarian Party of Arizona v Reagan, 17-16491, on February 8, 2019. This is the case on whether it is constitutional for a state to make it extremely difficult for a member of a small qualified party to get on his or her own party’s primary ballot. If the Libertarian Party wins the case, that will have an impact on similar repressive laws in Maine and Massachusetts. A similar scheme in South Dakota was invalidated earlier this year.

Florida: on October 18, the Florida Supreme Court restored three statewide ballot measures to the ballot. The measures had been proposed by the Constitution Revision Commission, and they obviously did not follow the same-subject rule. A lower court had removed the measures. But the State Supreme Court said Commission proposals do not need to follow the single-subject rule. One measure bans vaping indoors and also bans offshore oil drilling. The vote on that point was 4-3. Detzner v Anstead, SC 18-1513.

Georgia: on October 11, voting rights group sued the state in federal court over the fact that tens of thousands of voter registration applications have not been processed. Georgia Coalition for the Peoples’ Agenda v Kemp, n.d., 1:18cv-4727. This case is likely to move quickly. The Judge is Eleanor Ross, an Obama appointee.

Maryland: on October 13, the Fourth Circuit refused to put the Bread & Roses Party’s nominee for U.S. Senate on the ballot, because he had run in the Democratic primary for the same office this year. Segal v Maryland State Board of Elections, 18-2086.

Missouri: on October 9, a lower state court enjoined the state’s new voter ID law for voters who vote at the polls. The decision in Priorities USA v State, 18AC-cc226, is based on the State Constitution. On October 19, the State Supreme Court refused to disturb the ruling.

New York: the state courts continue to remove or add candidates to the November ballot. On October 16, the State Supreme Court removed the four Republican nominees for Justice of the Supreme Court, district 5, from the ballot, because of an irregularity with the meeting that nominated them. But on October 19, the Appellate Division put them back on. On October 18, another branch of the Appellate Division removed the two Democratic nominees for State Supreme Court Justice, 13^th district, from the ballot, because of flaws in their nomination documents.

North Dakota: on October 9, the U.S. Supreme Court refused to get involved in a lawsuit over the state’s new voter ID law, which requires voters at the polls to show a form of ID that includes their street address. Many Native Americans live on reservations that don’t have street addresses, and their ID typically lists a Post Office Box instead. The U.S. District Court had enjoined the law, but the 8^th circuit had reinstated it. Brakebill v Jaeger, 18A335.

Virginia: on October 10, the Fourth Circuit refused to stay the decision of a U.S. District Court, that the law letting incumbents tell their parties how to nominate is unconstitutional. This is a victory for a unit of the Republican Party. Virginia lets parties decide whether to nominate by primary or convention, but the law also says if an incumbent is running for re-election, he or she can override the wishes of the party. Sixth Congressional District Republican Committee v Alcorn, 18-1111.

U.S. Territories: on October 8, the U.S. Supreme Court refused to hear Segovia v U.S., 17-1463. This case challenged Illinois law, which lets U.S. citizens who move from Illinois to American Samoa or the Northern Mariana Islands vote absentee in Illinois, let won’t let Illinois residents who move to Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Island, or Guam, vote absentee. The Supreme Court always rejects lawsuits involving voting rights for U.S. overseas possessions.

Democrats are on the ballot this year for state legislative seats in 5,314 seats, out of a total of 6,050 seats that are up. The percentage of seats that have a Democrat, 88.5%, is the highest for that party since 1992.

Republicans have candidates in 4,783 seats, or 79.1%. The highest the Republican Party ever had was in 2010, when it ran someone in 83.9% of the seats.

Libertarians are in 5.9% of the seats, the highest since 2004.

When a candidate is the nominee of both major parties, that candidate is only counted once, in the total for the political party of which the candidate is a member. See the number of legislative candidates this year in each state, for each party, on page three.

Here are the Democratic and Republican figures for 1988-2018:

YEAR	Seats	Dem.	Rep.
1988	5,989	5,302	4,487
1990	6,114	5,370	4,665
1992	6,249	5,549	4,894
1994	6,167	5,270	4,855
1996	5,958	5,061	4,908
1998	6,138	4,917	4,837
2000	5,894	4,782	4,614
2002	6,230	5,139	5,022
2004	5,795	4,645	4,703
2006	6,159	5,178	4,824
2008	5,773	4,887	4,378
2010	6,103	4,976	5,120
2012	5,984	4,720	4,859
2014	6,031	4,647	4,803
2016	5,904	4,690	4,655
2018	6,050	5,314	4,783

~	# seats	Dem.	Rep.	Lib’t.	Green	Consti	WkFam	other(1)	other(2)	indp.
Ala	140	95	110	2	0	0	0	0	0	6
Alas	50	45	44	3	0	0	0	0	0	10
Ariz	90	83	68	0	5	0	0	0	0	3
Ark	118	68	98	12	0	0	0	0	0	2
Cal	100	100	73	5	0	0	0	0	0	3
Colo	82	82	76	16	0	0	0	1	0	9
Ct	187	182	168	4	7	0	2	3	0	7
Del	51	47	38	6	0	0	0	0	0	0
Fla	140	128	104	3	1	0	0	0	0	11
Ga	236	158	169	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Hi	64	62	23	4	3	0	0	0	0	0
Id	105	61	102	3	0	3	0	0	0	2
Ill	157	139	100	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
Ind	125	108	103	11	0	0	0	0	0	1
Iowa	125	118	96	17	0	0	0	0	0	4
Kan	126	87	101	7	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ky	119	109	111	3	0	0	0	0	0	5
Maine	186	176	170	1	6	0	0	1	0	19
Md	188	176	130	5	13	0	0	0	0	4
Mass	200	186	74	0	3	0	0	0	0	18
Mich	148	148	148	30	8	3	0	4	0	1
Minn.	135	135	132	2	0	0	0	0	0	3
Mo	180	162	151	16	7	1	0	0	0	2
Mont	125	107	104	18	0	0	0	0	0	2
Nev	53	48	40	4	0	7	0	0	0	1
NH	424	406	362	22	0	0	0	0	0	3
NM	70	57	45	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
NY	213	195	148	2	7	0	8	29	10	0
NoC	170	169	168	34	1	4	0	0	0	2
NoD	72	58	69	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Ohio	116	116	108	8	3	0	0	0	0	0
Okla	125	106	110	6	0	0	0	0	0	14
Ore	77	73	57	15	0	1	1	4	0	0
Pa	228	204	168	11	3	0	0	0	0	3
R I	113	109	47	2	0	0	0	1	0	15
So C	124	79	94	8	0	0	0	2	3	0
So D	105	97	97	5	0	0	0	0	0	7
Tenn	117	105	97	3	0	0	0	0	0	15
Tex	165	145	127	34	0	0	0	0	0	1
Utah	90	72	88	14	3	4	0	16	7	1
Vt	180	143	104	4	0	0	0	19	3	30
Wash	123	120	95	4	0	0	0	0	0	7
W Va	117	112	111	5	4	0	0	1	0	11
Wis	116	106	84	7	1	1	0	0	0	5
Wyo	75	32	71	1	0	0	0	0	0	5
TOTAL	6050	5314	4783	359	75	24	11	82	23	236

Parties in the "other(1)" column are: Co., Unity; Ct., Independent Pty; Il, Downstate United; Me, Socialist; Mi, Working Class; NY, Conservative (21) and Independence (8); Or, Independent Pty; RI, Moderate; S.C., American; Ut., United Utah; Vt, Progressive; WV, American Freedom.

Parties in the "other(2)" column are: N.Y., Reform (9) and Women’s Equality (1)., S.C., United Citizens (2) and Independence (1); Ut., Independent American; Vt, Liberty Union (2) and Green Mountain (1).

~	Dem.	Rep.	Indp, misc	Lib’t.	Green	Consti.	WkFam	Reform	other
Alaska	75,144	141,647	326,543	7,430	1,678	445	?	?	17,016
Arizona	1,151,745	1,288,332	1,238,038	31,583	6,463	?	?	?	– –
Arkansas	84,228	93,247	1,603,047	403	53	?	?	?	– –
Calif.	8,349,565	4,676,247	5,262,709	141,368	88,134	296	?	?	568,270
Colorado	1,007,948	979,204	1,163,751	38,356	9,567	10,058	?	?	1,202
Conn.	789,062	461,712	873,788	2,959	1,761	14	315	14	26,691
Delaware	328,939	193,641	162,574	1,709	759	276	361	50	6,952
Dt. Col.	373,466	30,023	83,164	1,295	3,785	?	?	?	– –
Florida	4,944,867	4,681,598	3,549,094	32,843	6,915	1,724	?	1,407	59,622
Idaho	99,104	427,298	291,138	7,002	?	2,963	?	?	– –
Iowa	620,639	644,141	710,586	11,876	2,720	0	0	0	– –
Kansas	416,780	761,183	464,421	14,859	0	0	0	0	0
Kentucky	1,687,833	1,418,807	283,587	9,092	1,749	551	?	83	178
Louis’na	1,287,140	909,885	693,123	14,730	2,536	174	0	1,216	74,965
Maine	340,122	281,754	358,734	5,554	42,438	?	?	?	– –
Maryland	2,179,296	1,015,657	749,289	21,882	9,185	?	?	?	– –
Mass.	1,492,399	465,952	2,468,402	14,271	4,932	244	12	119	826
Nebraska	357,489	580,101	257,878	14,198	?	?	?	?	– –
Nevada	598,174	523,251	353,539	15,588	2,732	67,644	?	?	– –
N. Hamp.	275,405	292,367	382,639	693	?	?	?	?	– –
N. Jersey	2,199,322	1,277,791	2,361,046	10,734	6,930	8,923	?	1,088	16,389
N. M.	573,085	379,964	276,919	9,184	4,101	389	?	?	6,605
N. York	5,780,030	2,633,776	2,486,209	7,675	27,581	?	41,853	2,200	594,898
No. Car.	2,677,367	2,106,658	2,244,694	37,236	748	557	?	?	– –
Okla.	778,229	1,000,073	326,192	8,497	?	?	?	?	– –
Oregon	966,397	703,825	893,596	19,351	9,572	3,757	10,072	?	124,478
Penn.	4,111,325	3,270,882	1,169,872	44,858	11,534	1,419	?	?	– –
Rhode Is.	340,963	106,554	335,406	0	?	?	?	?	3,720
So. Dak.	157,753	255,234	126,158	1,814	?	505	?	?	– –
Utah	171,381	662,192	484,859	12,958	1,240	4,867	?	?	32,518
W. Va.	521,322	398,961	308,379	6,275	2,147	185	?	?	– –
Wyo.	44,253	192,539	33,028	2,126	0	677	?	?	– –
TOTAL	44,780,772	32,854,496	32,322,402	548,399	249,260	105,668	52,613	6,177	1,534,330
Percent	39.82%	29.22%	28.74%	.49%	.22%	.09%	.05%	.01%	1.36%

Parties in the “other” column: Ak., Alaskan Independence; Ca., American Independent 494,183, Peace & Freedom 73,366, California National 721; Co., Unity 1,189, Approval Voting 33; Ct., Independent Party; De., Independent Party 6,265, American Delta 687; Fl., Independent Party 44,095, Ecology 522, Socialism & Liberation 448; Ky., Socialist Workers; La., Independent Party 74,025; Conservative 865; Socialist 75; Ma., Socialist 808, Prohibition 18; N.J., Conservative 8,930, Socialist 3,912, Natural Law 3,547; N.M., Indp. American 3,982, Better for America 2,623; N.Y., Independence 481,831, Conservative 155,500, Women’s Equality 4,675; Or., Independent Party 122,256, Progressive 2,222; R.I., Moderate; Ut., Indp. American 31,483, United Utah 1,035.

Data is from September or October 2018, except: Connecticut, the state has no data later than November 2017; Maine, June 2018; New York April 2018. Also, Pennsylvania data above is as of October 2018, except that for the minor parties it is from May 2018.

Totals October 2016 were: Democratic 45,690,825 (40.60%), Republican 33,052,332 (29.37%), independent & miscellaneous 31,200,104 (27.72%), Libertarian 497,535 (.44%), Green 256,560 (.23%), Constitution 92,483 (.08%), Reform 5,294 (.00+%), Working Families 61,517 (.05%), other parties 1,662,329 (1.50%).

Totals October 2014 were: Democratic 42,755,625 (41.17%), Republican 30,938,676 (29.79%), independent & miscellaneous 27,688,850 (26.67%), Libertarian 399,302 (.38%), Green 253,267 (.24%), Constitution 78,434 (.08%), Reform 22,880 (.02%), Working Families 58,757 (.06%), other parties 1,666,473 (1.60%).

Totals October 2012 were: Dem. 43,512,746 (41.85%), Rep. 31,298,863 (30.10%), indp. & misc. 26,808,810 (25.79%), Libertarian 330,811 (.32%), Green 250,682 (.24%), Constitution 77,918 (.07%), Reform 22,880 (.02%), Americans Elect 6,408 (.01%), other parties 1,659,537 (1.60%).

Totals October 2008 were: Dem. 43,933,901 (43.62%), Rep. 30,944,590 (30.72%), indp. & misc. 24,157,259 (23.98%), AIP/Constitution 438,222 (.44%), Green 255,019 (.25%), Libertarian 240,328 (.24%), Reform 32,961 (.03%), other parties 675,980 (.67%).

Totals October 2004 were: Dem. 37,301,951 (42.19%), Rep. 28,988,593 (32.79%), indp. & misc. 20,471,250 (23.15%), Constitution 320,019 (.36%), Green 298,701 (.34%), Libertarian 235,521 (.27%), Reform 63,729 (.07%), Natural Law 39,670 (.04%), other parties 695,639 (.79%).

~	Type	Vote Test	Gain	Retain?		Immune
Al	Primary	20% any statewide	– –	– –		– –
Ak	Primary	3% Governor	– –	Libt		Ak Indpc
Az	Primary	5% Governor	– –	Green		Libt
Ar	Primary	3% Governor	– –	Libt		– –
Ca	Primary	2% any statewide	– –	– –		AIP, Gr, Lib, PF
Co	Convention	1% any statewide	Approval Voting	Unity		Libt, Gr, Consti
Co.	Primary	10% Governor	Libt, Unity	– –		– –
Ct	Convention	1% each office	Libt	Green, WkFam, Indp		– –
Ct	Primary	20% Governor	Libt, WF, Indp	– –		– –
DC	Primary	7,500 any	– –	Green, Libt		– –
Ga	Statewide	1% any statewide	– –	Libt		– –
Ga	Primary	20% Governor	Libt	– –		– –
Hi	Primary	10% any statewide	– –	Green		Libt
Id	Primary	3% any statewide	– –	– –		Libt, Consti
Il	Statewide	5% any statewide	Libt	– –		– –
Il	Primary	5% Governor	Libt	– –		– –
In	Convention	2% Sec. of State	– –	Libt		– –
In	Primary	10% Sec. of State	Libt	– –		– –
Ia	Primary	2% Governor	– –	Libt		– –
Ks	Convention	1% any statewide	– –	Libt		– –
Ks	Primary	5% Governor	Libt	– –		– –
Me	Primary	5% Governor	– –	– –		Green
Md	Convention	1% Governor	– –	Green, Libt		– –
Ma	Primary	3% any statewide	Green	Libt		– –
Mi	Convention	½ of 1% any stwd	– –	Gr, Const,NL,WkClass		– –
Mi	Primary	5% any statewide	Gn,Const,NL,WC	Libt		– –
Mn	Primary	5% any statewide	Grn,Grass, Lib,Ind	– –		– –
Mo	Primary	2% any statewide	– –	Consti		Libt, Green
Mt	Primary	3% any statewide	– –	– –		Libt
Ne	Primary	5% any statewide	– –	– –		Libt
Nv	Convention	1% any statewide	– –	– –		Libt, Consti
NH	Primary	4% Governor	– –	Libt		– –
NM	Primary	5% any statewide	– –	Libt		– –
NM	Convention	½ of 1% Governor	– –	– –		BFA, Green
NY	Primary	50,000 for Gov.	Libt,, SAM	WF,In,WE,Ref,Gr,Con		– –
ND	Primary	5% Sec. of State	– –	– –		– –
Oh	Primary	3% Governor		Libt, Green
Ok	Primary	2,5% any statewide	– –	Libt		– –
Or	Convention	1% any statewide	– –	Consti,Prog		Libt,Gr,Indp, WF
RI	Primary	5% Governor	– –	Moderate		– –
SD	Convention	2.5% any statewide	– –	Libt		– –
Tx	Convention	5% any statewide	– –	Libt		– –
Tx	Primary	2% Governor	Libt	– –		– –
Ut	Primary	2% any	– –	Green, United Utah		Libt,Const,IAmer
Vt	Primary	5% any statewide	LibUnion	Progressive		– –
Wis.	Primary	1% any statewide	– –	Libt,Green, Consti		– –
Wyo.	Convention	2% several	– –	Libt, Consti		– –
Wyo.	Primary	10% several	Libt, Consti	– –		– –

NL in Michigan = Natural Law. In New York, WE = Women’s Equality, In = Independence, Ref = Reform, WF = Working Families, Con = Conservative, and Gr = Green.

This chart shows parties whose qualification status depends on the vote cast. Where a party has the chance to upgrade its status, that is shown in the "Gain?" column. When a party is defending its current status, that is shown in the "Retain?" column.

A few states are listed twice, because they have two categories of qualified status: a party entitled to a primary, and a party entitled to nominate by convention. Usually there are separate vote tests for each category, and the chart shows both.

Some parties don’t need to worry about the vote test, either because they stay on the ballot by some other test (such as registration), or because they are in states in which they only need to pass the vote test every other election, and they passed it in 2016, so get a free ride in 2018.

On October 19, Alaska Governor Bill Walker withdrew, and endorsed the Democratic nominee. It is too late to remove his name from the ballot. He is the only independent Governor in the U.S. His campaign had been damaged on October 16, when his running mate, Lieutenant Governor Byron Mallott, resigned from office and from his own re-election campaign.

On September 28, the Connecticut Libertarian Party settled its lawsuit against the city of Meriden, where police had prevented the party’s petitioners from working in a city park back on April 28. The city paid the party $37,000 to settle the case.

On October 10, the voters of Port Chester, New York, voted 746-429 in favor of using Cumulative Voting in municipal elections. Cumulative Voting gives voters multiple votes (equal to the number of seats being filled), and lets them give all their votes to one candidate, or spread them around. Port Chester had already been using Cumulative Voting, and now it will continue to do so.

New York State Senator Tony Avella lost the Democratic primary last month, but he will continue campaigning for re-election as the Independence Party nominee.

The October 1 B.A.N. had a chart, showing the number of U.S. House candidates each party has. The Libertarian column has two errors, which cancel each other out. The chart showed one in North Dakota, but there is none; and the chart showed one in Tennessee, but there are two.