MINOR PARTY AND INDEPENDENT VOTE FOR TOP OFFICES LOWEST MIDTERM SINCE 1982

Although the election returns for 2018 are far from complete, it is possible to know that the minor party and independent vote for the top office in each state is only 2.7% of the vote cast for those offices. This is the lowest percentage for any midterm year since 1982.

"Top office" means Governor, if a state was holding a gubernatorial election. Otherwise it means U.S. Senate. If a state had neither office, it means whatever statewide office was at the top of the ballot. If there was no statewide office, it means U.S. House.

It seems obvious that the vast majority of voters now fear one of the two major parties. Therefore, the voters who might normally have supported an independent or minor party candidate instead voted for the major party that is not the major party they fear. It doesn’t mean that the voters are suddenly enamored of either major party.

The slump in voter support for minor party and independent candidates did not extend to office other than Governor or Congress. North Dakota voters elected an independent candidate for Secretary of State. California voters gave 48% of their vote to an independent candidate for Insurance Commissioner.

The number of "other" candidates elected to legislatures did not decline. Thirteen independents were elected to state legislatures. There had been twelve in 2016, fourteen in 2014, seventeen in 2012, ten in 2010, and seven in 2008.

Minor parties elected nine legislators in 2018, nine in 2016, eight in 2014, eight in 2012, five in 2010, and six in 2008. All of these in 2018, 2016 and 2014 were Progressives in Vermont.

Here is the percentage of voters who voted for a minor party or independent candidate for the top office, in each midterm year since 1914. The 1914 figure has never been topped. The Progressive, Socialist and Prohibition Parties were all strong then.

2018	2.7%
2014	4.4%
2010	5.4%
2006	5.0%
2002	5.3%
1998	4.9%
1994	4.5%
1990	4.6%
1986	3.6%
1982	1.8%
1978	2.4%
1974	2.4%
1970	3.4%
1966	3.2%
1962	1.1%
1958	.9%
1954	.6%
1950	1.1%
1946	1.4%
1942	4.8%
1938	3.8%
1934	5.6%
1930	6.1%
1926	4.5%
1922	4.2%
1918	6.8%
1914	16.3%

On November 6, Maine voters used ranked choice voting to elect members of both houses of Congress. Never before had RCV been used in a general election for congress.

RCV had no impact on the U.S. Senate or U.S. House First District races, because someone received over 50% of the first choice votes. But in the Second District, RCV played a major role. When the first choice votes were counted, incumbent Republican Bruce Poliquin had 131,466 votes; Democrat Jared Golden had 129,556; independent Tiffany Bond had 16,500; and independent William Hoar had 6,933. Because no one got 50%, another round of counting was held. Afterwards, Golden had won with 139,231 votes; Poliquin had 136,326.

Exit polls showed that most Maine voters approve of RCV. Also, Democrats regained a majority in the State Senate (they already had a majority in the House), so it seems likely that the 2019 session of the legislature will start the process to amend the Constitution, so that RCV can be used for state office also.

On November 13, Congressman Poliquin filed a federal lawsuit to enjoin the use of RCV. He was joined by some voters. Baber v Dunlap, 1:18cv-465. On November 15, U.S. District Court Judge Lance E. Walker, a Trump appointee, declined to issue an injuncdtion.

Poliquin had argued that RCV violates equal protection and the federal Voting Rights Act. He ignored the fact that Louisiana and Georgia hold general election runoffs.

Turnout in the November 2018 election was far higher than it was in November 2014. Also, the number of registered voters was much greater. In many states, that means the 2020 petition requirements are much higher than they were in 2016, because many states base the petition requirement on the number of registered voters, or the vote cast in the last midterm election.

Here are the worst changes:

Alabama: party petition and non-presidential statewide independent goes from 35,413 to 51,416.

Arizona: party petition goes from 20,119 to 31,436.

California: independent presidential petition goes from 178,039 to 196,964.

Florida: independent presidential petition, and presidential petition for new parties, goes from 119,316 to 132,781.

Georgia: full party petition, and non-presidential independent petition, rises from 51,912 to 64,354.

Indiana: all statewide petitions go from 26,700 to 44,885.

Kansas: party petition from 16,960 to 20,480.

Michigan: party petition from 31,519 to 42,311.

Nebraska: party petition from 5,395 to 6,880.

New Mexico: statewide independent petition from 15,388 to 20,814. Party petition from 2,565 to 3,469.

Oklahoma: party petition from 24,745 to 35,592.

Oregon: party petition from 22,046 to 27,669.

Tennessee: party petition from 33,816 to 55,965.

Texas: party petition and non-presidential statewide independent petition from 47,086 to 83,075.

The Ohio Libertarian Party did not get as much as 3% for Governor on November 6. However, the Ohio law seems to give parties that petitioned onto the ballot two elections to remain on the ballot.

The law says, "3501.01(F): Political party means any group of voters meeting the requirements set forth in 3517.01 of the Revised Code…(2) Minor political party means any political party organized under the laws of this state that meets either of the following requirements: (a) Except as otherwise provided in this division, the political party’s nominees for governor or presidential elector received less than 20% but not less than 3% of the total vote cast for such office at the most recent regular state election. A political party that meets the requirements of this division remains a political party for a period of four years after meeting these requirements. (b) The political party has filed with the secretary of state, subsequent to its failure to meet the requirements of division (F)(2)(a) of this section, a petition that meets the requirements of section 3517.01 of the Revised Code.

"A newly formed political party shall be known as a minor political party until the time of the first election for governor or president which occurs not less than twelve months subsequent to the formation of such party, after which election the status of such party shall be determined by the vote for the office of governor or president."

The Libertarians submitted their 2018 petition for party status in July 2018, which was less than twelve months before the November 2018 election. Therefore, by the plain language of the law, it is not to be removed, and should remain on the ballot for the 2020 election.

Furthermore, there is a Tennessee precedent from 2015 that appears to require Ohio to give the Libertarians two elections.

The Sixth Circuit ruled in Green Party of Tennessee v Hargett that if a state gives an old party status for two elections after it meets the vote test, then it must give a newly-qualifying party two elections after it submits a petition. So, even if the Ohio Secretary of State doesn’t agree that the statute requires him to leave the party on the ballot, his interpretation would violate the Green Party precedent. That precedent is binding on Ohio because Ohio, like Tennessee, is in the Sixth Circuit.

A spokesperson for the Secretary of State told the press that the Libertarian Party is not now on the ballot, but the office has not made a formal determination. It is likely that the Secretary of State didn’t even know about the Green Party precedent when his spokesperson said that.

On November 6, the voters of Michigan passed Proposal Three, an initiative that relates to voting procedures. The main part of the measure legalizes early voting, and also same-day registration. But a little-noticed part of the initiative restores the straight-ticket device. Proposal Three amends the state Constitution, so now the device is embedded in the constitution, and cannot be repealed without another popular vote.

On November 6, Florida voters passed Measure Four, which greatly expands the franchise. The old law said no one convicted of a felon could ever register to vote in Florida, unless the Governor restored that individual’s voting rights. Measure Four lets ex-felons register, after they have ceased to be on parole or probation, unless they were convicted of murder or certain violent sex crimes. The measure needed 60% and it received 64%. It will help 1,400,000 individuals, and potentially could increase the number of voters by more than 10%.

Colorado: the Tenth Circuit will hear Baca v Williams, 18-1173, on January 24, 2019, at 8:30 a.m.

Washington: the State Supreme Court will hear Guerra v Washington State, 95347-3, on January 22, 2019, at 9 a.m.

Both these cases were brought by 2016 Democratic presidential electors who did not wish to vote for Hillary Clinton.

The Minnesota Democratic presidential elector who has already lost in the Eighth Circuit filed for a rehearing in September, but on November 7, that circuit refused to rehear the case. The plaintiff, Muhammad Abdurrahman, may ask the U.S. Supreme Court to hear his case.

Illinois: U.S. District Court Judge Colin Bruce, an Obama appointee, will hold a trial in Gill v Scholz, c.d., 3:16cv-3221, on April 16, 2019. This is the case that challenges the 5% petition for independent candidates for U.S. House.

Montana: U.S. District Court Judge Brian Morris, an Obama appointee, will hear Montana Green Party v Stapleton,6:18cv-87, on January 8. This is the case that challenges the March 15 petition deadline for new parties, and the unequal distribution requirement, which requires between 55 and 150 signatures from each of 34 state house districts.

The voters of Fargo, North Dakota, have passed an initiative to use Approval Voting for city elections. Fargo becomes the first jurisdiction in the United States to use Approval Voting. Voters may vote for as many candidates as they wish, even if only one person is to be elected.

November was an eventful month for opponents of gerrymandering.

Maryland: on November 7, a 3-judge U.S. District Court ruled that Maryland’s U.S. House District 6 is an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander. Benisek v Lamone, 1:13cv-3233. This is a very old case, filed in 2013. The same court had come to the same conclusion several years ago, and then the U.S. Supreme Court took the state’s appeal, and said the lower court had not handled the case properly, and sent it back for another look. The Maryland Attorney General has already said that he will again appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court, even though Maryland’s Governor doesn’t wish to appeal. The new ruling says that the state must redraw the district in time for the 2020 election.

Colorado: the voters passed Measure Y by 71%-29%. It sets a commission to draw U.S. House district boundaries. The commission will have four Democrats, four Republicans, and four members who are neither.

Michigan: the voters passed Measure 18-2 with 61% of the vote. It creates a redistricting commission to handle both U.S. House and legislative districts. It will have four Republicans, four Democrats, and five who are neither.

Missouri: voters passed Amendment One, which provides that a demographer will draw state legislative districts in a manner that is fair to both major parties.

Utah: as of the day this newsletter goes to print, Proposition Four has 50.1% of the vote. It would create a Commission of nonpartisan experts to draw the U.S. House and legislative districts. They would be appointed by the Governor and the legislature, and would be required to follow procedures making a neutral plan likely.

Attorney Michael Schaefer of Coronado, California, has been elected to the California Board of Equalization, District Four, as a Democrat. The Board deals with taxation.

Schaefer, age 80, has long been the premier champion of write-in voting in California. In 1986 he won a case in the State Supreme Court, Canaan v Abdelnour, which said that both the U.S. Constitution and the State Constitution protect the right of a voter to vote for any person. Therefore, all elections for public office must have write-in space.

Unfortunately, San Francisco chose to disobey this ruling in its 1999 mayoral runoff. When a write-in candidate sued San Francisco, he won in the State Court of Appeals, with Schaefer again the attorney. But the State Supreme Court reversed, and overruled the 1986 precedent. The San Francisco decision is Edelstein v Nishioka. It was written by Justice Janice Rogers Brown, who later left the California Supreme court and joined the D.C. Circuit. There, she ruled that petitioners cannot work on post office interior sidewalks, and she also ruled against Gary Johnson’s lawsuit against the Commission on Presidential Debates.

On November 13, four New Mexico voters filed a lawsuit in the State Supreme Court, asking that the Court rule that the state can no longer pay for party primaries. The State Constitution says, "Neither the state nor any county…except as otherwise provided in this constitution, shall directly or indirectly lend or pledge its credit or make any donation to or in aid of any person, association, or public or private corporation." Chavez v Toulouse Oliver.

	Dem.	Repub.	Lib’t	Green.	Constit.	Reform	oth(1)	oth(2)	Independent
Alab.	691,671	1,019,558		~ ~	~	~	~	~	~
Alas.	123,446	143,612	5,304	~	~	~	~	~	5,642
Ariz.	985,725	1,321,475	~	50,500	~	~	~	~	~
Ark.	282,825	581,873	25,850	~	~	~	~	~	~
Cal.	6594,053	4,156,584	~	~	~	~	~	~	~
Colo.	1345,156	1,076,916	69,156	~	~	~	25,722	~	~
Conn.	676,773	624,820	6,086	~	~	~	17,867	25,405	56,000
Del	217,385	137,127	3,910	4,170	~	~	~	~	~
Fla.	4043,723	4,076,186	~	~	~	47,140	~	~	53,512
Ga.	1923,685	1,978,408	37,235	~	~	~	~	~
Hi.	244,934	131,719	~	10,123	~	~	~	~	4,067
Ida.	231,065	361,671	6,557	~	5,791	~	~	~	~
Ill.	2382,536	1,723,015	105,480	~	~	~	188,486	~	~
Ind.	1022,635	1,156,914	88,490	~	~	~	~	~	~
Iowa	630,931	667,169	21,423	~	~	~	7,463	~	~
Kan.	489,337	443,346	18,898	~	~	~	~	~	72,395
Ky.	613,040	935,564	5,938	~	~	~	~	~	15,532
La.	528,213	907,125	~	~	~	~	~	~	21,579
Me.	314,156	265,455	~	~	~	~	~	~	36,457
Md.	999,948	1,274,442	13,259	11,244	~	~	~	~	~
Mass.	874,042	1,767,722	~	~	~	~	~	~	~
Mich.	2256,791	1,853,650	56,752	28,857	24,701	~	10,258	~	~
Minn.	1393,053	1,097,689	26,735	~	~	~	68,665	~	~
Miss.	342,905	515,131	12,065	~	~	5,520	~	~	~
Mo.	1103,461	1,249,854	27,508	13,195	~	~	~	~	33,303
Mont.	253,869	235,960	14,545	~	~	~	~	~	~
Nebr.	280,418	407,483	~	~	~	~	~	~	~
Nev.	480,006	440,320	8,640	~	10,076	~	~	~	13,891
N.H	262,359	302,770	8,197	~	~	~	~	~	~
N.J.	1480,011	1220,163	18,904	21,364	~	~	~	~	47,097
N.M.	396,603	297,185	~	~	~	~	~	~	~
N.Y.	3158,459	1824,581	90,816	95,716	~	26,069	195,036	316014	~
No.C.	1812,594	1844,863	~	~	~	~	~	~	~
No.D.	144,376	179,720	~	~	~	~	~	~	~
Ohio	2005,627	2,187,619	77,184	47,664	~	~	~	~	~
Okla.	500,973	644,579	40,833	~	~	~	~	~	~
Ore.	925,886	807,762	28,432	27,564	20,815	~	52,809	10,838	~
Pa.	2869,194	2,032,561	48,947	~	~	~	~	~	~
R.I.	197,752	139,834	~	~	~	~	10,147	4,184	22,721
So.C.	784,182	921,342	~	~	~	~	~	~	~
So.D.	161,170	172,704	4,838	~	~	~	~	~	~
Tenn.	862,324	1,333,811	18,817	3,066	~	~	~	~	18,786
Tex.	3524,191	4,636,029	140,015	~	~	~	~	~	~
Utah	313,273	642,378	25,877	~	27,751	~	11,479	~	~
Vt.	110,335	151,261	~	~	~	~	1,839	~	9,537
Va.	1910,370	1,374,313	61,565	~	~	~	~	~	~
Wa.	1785,740	1,268,420	~	~	~	~	~	~	~
W.V.	290,505	271,112	24,411	~	~	~	~	~	~
Wis.	1323,550	1,292,970	20,316	11,075	~	~	2,716	~	18,779
Wyo.	55,965	136,412	3,010	~	6,751	~	~	~	~

Parties in the "Oth(1)" column: Co., Unity; Ct., Working Families; Il., Conservative; Ia., Clean Water; Mi., Natural Law; Mn., Grassroots-Legalize Cannabis; NY, Wk Fam 106,008, Independence 63,518, Women’s Equality 25,510; Or., Independent; R.I., Moderate; Ut., Indp. Amer.; Vt., Liberty Union; Wi., Wisconsin Party. In the "Oth(2)" column: Ct., Independent; N.Y., Conservative 238,578, SAM 51,367; Or., Progressive; R.I. Compassion.

Total: Democratic 56,201,221; Republican 54,233,177; Libt.1,165,993; Green 324,538; Constitution 95,885; Reform 78,729; independent 429,298. THESE TOTALS ARE NOT FINAL because many states are still counting.

State	Requirements		Signatures Collected			Three Types of Deadlines
	Full Party	Cand.	LIb’t	Green	Consit.	Full Party	Pres. Pty.	Pres. Ind.
Ala.	51,416	5,000	0	0	0	Mar. 3	Mar. 3	Aug. 13
Alaska	(est) (reg) 8,358	#3,005	7,442	1,671	447	May 4	Aug. 5	Aug. 5
Ariz.	31,436	(est) #37,000	already on	0	0	Feb. 28	Sep. 4	Sep. 4
Ark.	10,000	#1,000	0	0	0	Jan. 2	Aug. 3	Aug. 3
Calif.	(es) (reg) 65,000	196,964	already on	already on	296	Nov 4 2019	July 6	Aug. 7
Colo.	(reg) 1,000	#pay $1,000	already on	already on	already on	Jan. 10	Aug. 5	Aug. 5
Conn.	no procedure	#7,500	already on	already on	can’t start	– –	Aug. 5	Aug. 5
Del.	(est.) (reg) 700	(est.) 7,000	already on	already on	276	Aug. 23	Aug. 25	July 15
D.C.	no procedure	(est.) #5,000	already on	already on	can’t start	– –	Aug. 5	Aug. 5
Florida	132,781	132,781	already on	already on	already on	April 15	July 15	July 15
Georgia	64,354	#7,500	already on	can’t start	can’t start	July 14	July 14	July 14
Hawaii	757	#4,347	already on	already on	0	Feb. 24	Aug. 5	Aug. 5
Idaho	13,047	1,000	already on	can’t start	already on	Aug. 31	Aug. 31	Aug. 24
Illinois	no procedure	#25,000	can’t start	can’t start	can’t start	– –	June 22	June 22
Indiana	no procedure	#44,885	already on	0	0	– –	June 30	June 30
Iowa	no procedure	#1,500	0	0	0	– –	Aug. 14	Aug. 14
Kansas	20,480	5,000	already on	0	0	June 1	June 1	Aug. 3
Ky.	no procedure	#5,000	already on	can’t start	can’t start	– –	Sep. 4	Sep. 4
La.	(reg) 1,000	#pay $500	already on	already on	174	May 18	Aug. 21	Aug. 21
Maine	(reg) 5,000	#4,000	unsettled	already on	0	Jan. 2	Aug. 3	Aug. 3
Md.	10,000	10,000	unsettled	0	0	Aug. 3	Aug. 3	Aug. 3
Mass.	(est) (reg) 45,000	#10,000	already on	already on	244	Feb. 4	Aug. 2	July 28
Mich.	42,311	30,000	already on	already on	already on	July 16	July 16	July 16
Minn.	130,500	#2,000	0	0	0	May 1	Aug. 18	Aug. 18
Miss.	be organized	1,000	already on	already on	already on	Feb. 1	Sep. 4	Sep. 4
Mo.	10,000	10,000	already on	already on	already on	July 27	July 27	July 27
Mont.	5,000	#5,000	already on	in court	0	Mar. 12	Aug. 12	Aug. 12
Nebr.	6,880	2,500	already on	0	0	Aug. 3	Aug. 3	Aug. 3
Nev.	9,607	9,607	already on	0	already on	June 5	June 5	July 10
N. Hamp.	14,556	#3,000	0	0	0	Aug. 5	Aug. 5	Aug. 5
N.J.	no procedure	#800	0	0	0	– –	July 27	July 27
N. M.	3,469	20,814	already on	already on	already on	June 25	June 25	June 25
N.Y.	no procedure	#15,000	already on	already on	can’t start	– –	unknown	unknown
No. Car.	11,778	70,666	already on	already on	already on	May 18	May 18	Feb. 16
No. Dak.	7,000	#4,000	0	0	0	Apr. 10	Aug. 31	Aug. 31
Ohio	43,185	5,000	unsettled	0	0	July 1	Aug. 5	Aug. 5
Okla.	35,592	#pay $35,000	already on	0	0	Feb. 28	July 15	July 15
Oregon	27,699	17,893	already on	already on	already on	Aug. 25	Aug. 25	Aug. 25
Penn.	no procedure	#5,000	can’t start	can’t start	can’t start	– –	Aug. 3	Aug. 3
R.I.	18,795	#1,000	0	0	0	Aug. 3	Sep. 4	Sep. 4
So. Car.	10,000	10,000	already on	already on	already on	May 4	May 8	July 15
So. Dak.	3,388	3,388	0	0	0	July 1	July 1	Aug. 4
Tenn.	55,965	275	0	0	0	Aug. 5	Aug. 5	Aug. 18
Texas	83,075	79,939	already on	can’t start	can’t start	May 18	May 18	May 11
Utah	2,000	1,000	already on	0	already on	Nv 30 2019	Nv 30 2019	Aug. 17
Vermont	be organized	#1,000	already on	0	0	De 31 2019	Aug. 3	Aug. 3
Virginia	no procedure	#5,000	can’t start	can’t start	can’t start	– –	Aug. 21	Aug. 21
Wash.	no procedure	#1,000	can’t start	can’t start	can’t start	– –	July 25	July 25
West Va.	no procedure	#7,145	already on	already on	0	– –	Aug. 3	Aug. 3
Wisc.	10,000	#2,000	can’t start	can’t start	already on	April 2	Aug. 2	Aug. 4
Wyo.	4,025	4,025	already on	can’t start	already on	June 1	June 1	Aug. 25
States On			32	19	14	`

# means partisan label permitted.
Because some states have not finished counting votes, and because the petition requirement is dependent on the vote cast, the actual requirements in these states will be somewhat higher than the number shown above.

Bernie Sanders and Angus King won for U.S. Senate. The incumbent Secretary of State of North Dakota, Al Jaeger, won re-election as an independent. There were 13 state legislative wins:

Alaska: Daniel Ortiz

Maine: Walter Riseman, Jeff Evangelos, William Pluecker, Norman Higgins, and Kent Ackley.

Massachusetts: Susannah Whipps.

Vermont: Terry Norris, Barbara Murphy, Benjamin Jickling, Laura Sibilia, and Kelly Pajala.

Wyoming: Jim Roscoe.

Progressive Party of Vermont: re-elected the Lieutenant Governor, David Zuckerman; won nine legislative races: Senators Chris Pearson and Anthony Pollina. House winners: Brian Cina, Selene Colburn, Diana Gonzalez, Robin Chesnut-Tangerman, Mollie S. Burke, Zacariah Ralph, and Sandy Haas.

Libertarian: Henry Co., Indiana, Liberty Township Board, Terry Coffman; same county, Township Trustee, Jamie Jo Owens; Wayne Co., In., Clay Township Board, Cheryl Heacox; Montgomery Co., In., Franklin Township Board, Dean Hartley; Montgomery Co., Kentucky, Justice of the Peace, Shannon Denniston.

Constitution: Greene Co. Cmsr, N.C., Jerry R. Jones.

Green: Registrar of Voters, Union, Ct., John Roush.

Bethany Baldes, the Libertarian for Wyoming House, 55^th district, got 49.2% in a race against a Republican. This is the closest the party has come to electing a legislator since 2000, when it elected Steve Vaillancourt in New Hampshire.

Minnesota: two previously unqualified parties each polled 5% for a statewide race, and became ballot-qualified. They are the Legal Marijuana Now Party, and the Grassroots-Legalize Marijuana Party. They are the first qualified parties in Minnesota, not counting the Democratic and Republican Parties, since 2014, when the Independence Party went off the ballot.

New York: the SAM Party, which stands for "Serve America Party", received over 50,000 votes for Governor and became ballot-qualified. The Libertarian Party did the same, for the first time in its history. Two New York parties that had been qualified, Reform and Women’s Equality, went off the ballot.

Since 1943, the Prohibition Party has chosen its presidential nominee in the odd year before a presidential election. This year, the party nominated even earlier. On November 13, it chose Bill Bayes of Mississippi for president, and Connie Gammon of Tennessee for vice-president.