Political Science Professor Michael McDonald, who studies voter turnout in the U.S., estimates 39% of the potential electorate will vote in the November 7, 2006 election. That is only about a 10% improvement, compared to November 2002, when about 36% voted. Note that “potential electorate” means all adults who could register and vote if they wished; it does not refer to the percentage of registered voters who will vote.

He notes in the Washington Post of October 31 that Iowa keeps track of the partisan affiliation of people who request absentee ballots. So far, 51.1% of the absentee voter requests in Iowa have come from registered Democrats, whereas 31.7% of them have come from registered Republicans and only 17.2% have come from registered independents. Voter registration in Iowa is almost a 3-way tie between Republicans, Democrats and independents. Therefore, this data tends to show that registered Democrats are more eager to vote this year than registered Republicans and registered independents.