The presidential nominee of a new party, or an independent candidate, will need approximately 690,000 valid signatures to get on the ballot of all 50 states and D.C. in 2008. This assumes the candidate is pragmatic and uses the easier method to get on the ballot in each state. In some states the independent method is easier; in others the new party procedure is easier. “Easier” is defined as the procedure used more often in the past. Thus, in California, where the independent procedure has been used more often than the new party procedure during the last 35 years, the independent petition is in the tally, not the new party method.

In 2004, the requirement was 634,727. The states in which the requirements went up most sharply are Arizona and Michigan, because they had much higher turnout in 2006 than in 2002. Also West Virginia is much higher, because turnout in 2004 was much higher than in 2000.

The 2008 requirement is the highest number since 1992, when it was 695,208.

The full party petition procedures for New Hampshire and Oklahoma are not in the tally. Interestingly, both of them are somewhat easier in 2008 than they were in 2004, because of lower voter turnout in those two states in 2006 than in 2002. In New Hampshire, the full party petition in 2004 was 13,260, but for 2008 it will be 12,106. And in Oklahoma, it was 51,781 in 2004 but will be 46,324 in 2008, although that number may rise slightly before the official tally is complete.