On April 16, Zogby Polls released results of a presidential general election poll that includes both Ralph Nader and Bob Barr.
The results if Obama is the Democratic nominee: Obama 44, McCain 42, Nader 3, Barr 2, other/undecided 12.
The results if Clinton is the Democratic nominee: McCain 45, Clinton 39, Nader 3, Barr 2, other/undecided 9. See more details here. Thanks to ThirdPartyWatch for this news.
Why havent they included Keyes?
Zogby’s last survey, without Barr, had Ralph Nader running at 6%. It appears that Barr’s support comes at the expense of Ralph Nader. This data, although preliminary, would seem to refute the myth advanced by the Nader Bashers that Ralph was pulling voters exclusively from the “Progressive End” of the spectrum.
It’s almost impossible to accurately analyze responses for 3rd party candidates in these polls since the percentages are well within the margin of error and support for these candidates is, sadly, generally much softer and more fluid than support for major party candidates. The only conclusion I would draw, and it’s a tentative one, after looking at all the polls that have included him thus far is that it seems as though Nader could come close to his 2000 total and might well double or triple his 2004 total. But it’s way too early to tell.
AT THIS STAGE OF THE GAME POLLS HAVE NO GREAT IMPORTANCE.
If I remember correctly, Nader also did well (up to 5%) in some of the 2004 polls too.
However, as it gets closer to the time of the actual election, the ‘mainstream media’ endlessly focuses on only two candidates. Obviously, many people who would consider voting for minor party candidates or independents get “swept away” in all the media coverage of the big two.
Nader and Barr both have name recognition and really, these are very good choices for anyone opting out of the duopoly. Their numbers will increase once the Duopoly is down to 2. Bob Barr has the most to gain since he has not spent any money and really is not in the race yet, he has not even won the nomination. Nader, unfortunately, due to his stubberness of not joining the Greens will be in less than 35 ballots and his numbers will reflect this.
A curiousity is that there is a 5% swing in rounding error between the two surveys from 103% in the Obama/McCain et al race to 98% in Clinton/McCain et al race. This would suggest that the shift in McCain support is closer to 4% than 3%.
This is great. Looks like Nader + Barr is enough to offset the difference between the Democrat and Republican!
If they numbers do not get higher, there needs to be a real effort to get a cable channel to have a debate between Nader and Barr.