The webpage www.electoral-vote.com tracks individual state polls for the general election for president. Professor Andrew Tanenbaum, who runs this site, suggests that if the major party nominees are Barack Obama and John McCain, a likely electoral vote result (based on polls released on April 19 and preceding days) is 269 electoral votes for each candidate.
The tie comes about if Obama carries California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, D.C., Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington and Wisconsin; and if McCain carries the other 29 states.
Defenders of the Electoral College never mention the disadvantage that the Electoral College can produce a tie. In case of a tie, the newly-elected House of Representatives would choose the president, with each state getting one vote. A state whose delegation is split evenly loses its vote. Thanks to Malcolm Gutter for the link to electoral-vote.com.
Since it has never happened (an EC tie) and is very unlikely to happen it isn’t a serious disadvantage.
Huh? Move to a town in tornado alley and start talking about ‘well the twisters haven’t hit this community yet, so it isn’t a serious disadvantage…’
I believe the correct address is http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Really, the problem doesn’t occur just with ties, but also with any failure to achieve a majority. That HAS happened before.
Then the question is how many states will majority Dem and majority Rep delegations?
We can’t know the answer to the question posed by commenter #5, because it’s the new Congress that will vote, not the current Congress.
I think the more likely scenario would be for a 3rd candidate to garnish enough votes to keep any of them from getting a majority.
A tie is certainly possible, but an awful lot can happen in 6 and 1/2 months. (Remember the predictions of a Hillary-Giuliani general election race?)
One of the framers of the Constitution, George Mason, predicted that the president would be chosen by the House in 19 of every 20 elections; it’s happened twice. In 1800, Jefferson and Aaron Burr tied in electoral votes, and the “lame duck” House elected Jefferson on the 36th ballot.
No one had an electoral majority in 1824, and the House elected JQ Adams, who had finished second in popular and electoral votes, over Andrew Jackson.
James Monroe (1817-1825) was, in effect, elected by the House. Presidential candidates were then nominated by the party caucuses in the House, and Monroe’s party was the only party (or the only one that nominated a candidate).
Monroe’s administration was also known as ‘the era of Good Feelings’….
Wake up folks. Sorry — NO more *Good Feelings*.
See the 1860 gerrymander Electoral College election for Prez and the about 620,000 DEAD Americans as a result in 1861-1865.
The EVIL left/right control freak party hacks are now about 1,000 – 10,000 times more EVIL worse than in 1860.
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Democracy NOW –
Uniform definition of Elector in ALL of the U.S.A.
P.R. for all legislative body elections.
NONPARTISAN Approval Voting for ALL elected executive officers and all judges — even the Supremes.
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Otherwise — get ready for Civil W-A-R II — due to left/right party hack robotic predictable New Age MORONS like Clinton, Obama and McCain — all cheap public talk — closed door backroom secret EVIL.
I.E. the Electoral College is now a STONE AGE political timebomb waiting again to go off — with a 269-269 tie.
Sorry the 1800 election is very tame compared with the EVIL party hack control freaks coming out of their ratholes under rocks in 2008.
See the 2004 FEC stats.
If 3 small barely Elephant States in 2004 become 3 small barely Donkey States in 2008 = 269-269 gerrymander E.C. tie.
Know-it-alls can report the States.
What is the continuing INSANITY regarding ANY respect for the earlier ANTI-Democracy MONSTERS in giving the People ANY form of ANTI-Democracy political structures for ANY reason — I.E. the EVIL slavery and small State machinations in 1787 and 1800 — especially the EVIL U.S.A. Senate — with its nonstop NUTCASE blowhard party hack extremists since 1789.
Get ready for a runoff POPULAR vote election for Prez via an EMERGENCY constitutional amendment in Nov-Dec 2008 — i.e. even the New Age gerrymander MONSTERS in the Congress and all 50 State legisltures will panic more than a little if they face a Civil WAR.
http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2004/federalelections2004.shtml
Find those 2004 marginal States in the Prez tables that can/will produce a 269-269 Electoral College tie in 2008.
Think very close Donkey-Kerry and Elephant-Bush II percentages.
I have always thought it was the whole notion of a tie that in the end gave third parties a “potential” power in presidential elections. A third party with strong geographical support could gain considerable leverage by winning just 1 electoral vote.
As far as Obama and the tie, it seems highly unlikely. To do so he’s have to win NC while losing Ohio, Penn, Virginia, and W Virginia. He’s also have to win CO. in which has only been done once by a Democrat in the last 40 years. In addition if he lost Penn and Ohio I find it hard to see him winning Michigan. I will be interesting to see if the Dems pick a loser three times in a roll.
Dem Rep, You mean those ‘well meaning’ California Democrats [whom took all 56 electorial votes by over a million ballets] whom harassed Nader’s Raiders unmercifully in 2004 where wrong/ mislead/ counter productive?
The Electoral College should not be eliminated until all discrimination against independent and/or “minor party” candidates is eliminated. That would mean that there would have to be proportional representation and ranked ballot voting instituted – among many other new changes to the system.
w/e elction are a waste of time
Abolish the damn Electoral College! It’s a relic from the 18th century.
The EVIL RULING CLASS of EVIL Donkey / Elephant party hacks loves having the EVIL minority rule gerrymander systems — BOTH houses of the Congress, Electoral College, ALL houses of ALL State legislatures and many local regimes.
Half the votes in half the gerrymander areas = about 25 percent minority rule by the party hacks.
Remedy –
Uniform definition of Elector.
P.R. for all legislative body elections.
Total Votes / Total Seats = EQUAL votes needed by each seat winner — using vote transfers via pre-election candidate rank order lists.
Nonpartisan Approval Voting for all executive / judicial offices.
NO party hack caucuses, primaries and conventions.
NO vetoes — a vestige of the BARBARIAN Middle Ages.
REAL Democracy NOW to save Civilization — STOP the EVIL RULING CLASS of EVIL party hacks — who have nonstop EVIL stuff to distract the voters — undeclared wars, nonstop deficits that wreck the economy, new spending schemes, etc.
Richard Clark Says:
April 21st, 2008 at 3:46 pm
Abolish the damn Electoral College! It’s a relic from the 18th century.
Phil Sawyer responds:
Are you going to say that the whole Constitution of the United States is “a relic” also? I certainly hope not.
It won’t be a tie. Obama is a loser: the Dems are gonna lose 3 times in a row. Wow.