On Monday, August 3, Delaware held a special election to fill the vacant State Senate seat, 19th district. The results: Republican 63.0%, Democratic 30.3%, Independent Party 5.9%, Libertarian .8%.
When this State Senate seat had last been up, in 2006, the Republicans hadn’t even run anyone. The results in 2006 had been: Democratic 78.3%, Independent Party 21.7%. In 2002 the results had been: Democratic 63.6%; Republican 36.4%.
Do you know whether minor party candidates tend to do better or worse in special elections versus general elections?
I get the sense that special elections tend to be worse for minor candidates, but I can’t really back that up.
I’ve never done a statistical study, but my impression is that for special elections in which each party is confined to one nominee, minor parties tend to do better in special elections. This showing yesterday for the Independent Party is good. It was the party’s 3rd best showing ever for a federal or state office (excluding races with only one major party nominee). The Independent Party is 9 years old.
Actually, I would think the exact opposite. I base this on the fact that the Liberals always did better in by-elections for House of Commons in Britain that they did in the general election. Sometimes in the 50’s and 60’s they were all but wiped out as a parliamentary party but then would pull off surprising wins for vacant seats when the future of the entire government did not depend on the outcome.
What is the Independent Party – an independent candidate or an actual party? Is it ideologically left/center/right or …?
The Independent Party is a real party in Delaware, somewhat with the same ideas of the Reform Party. It nominated Ralph Nader for president in both 2004 and 2008. It didn’t run anyone for president in 2000.