According to this news story in the Arizona Daily Star, Republican Party leaders in the state have already decided to try to change the rules, so as to make it possible for the party to exclude independent voters from voting in Republican Party primaries.
Richard: This piece says the ’98 law lets independents and minor party members vote in the two major parties’ primaries.
That’s actually members of UNqualified minor parties, isn’t it?
Yes.
#1 Yes, though Arizona does not appear to distinguish among qualified parties on the basis of size.
The district court had originally ruled on behalf of the Arizona Libertarian Party based on letting independents and others vote for party officers, and then voided the entire statute.
The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals in Libertarian Party v Bayless said that the issue of non-members voting for party offices and the issue of non-members voting for nominees were separate issues. It vacated the district court’s decision with respect to parties other than the Libertarian Party, and also ordered the district court to consider whether the law violated the associational rights of Libertarians as to nomination.
The 9th Circuit said that the Arizona law differed from that under the blanket primary in California, since in California members of other parties could participate in the nomination of candidates of any party.
In Libertarian Party v Brewer the district court noted that members of unqualified parties such as the Green Party (not qualified at that time) could vote in the Libertarian Party primary; and also paid particular attention to the relative size of Libertarian party and the number of independents who could vote in their primary.
In Arizona, the number of signatures needed to qualify for a party primary is based on the number of voters registered with the party, but signers are not restricted to the party. The number of signatures for independent candidates is based on the number of voters not registered parties. The number of signatures for non-qualified parties is based on the the last gubernatorial or presidential vote.
So for US representative, Republican, Democratic, and independent candidates require several hundred signatures; newly qualified party candidates a few hundred; but Libertarian candidates about 20. So there is actually an incentive for independents and non-qualified party voters to not only choose between Libertarian candidates, but to put forward pseudo-Libertarians to take advantage of the minimal signature requirements.
So a court victory by the Republicans is not certain based on the decision of the court with respect to a small party such as the Libertarians.