The Escondido Democratic Club hosted a discussion of California’s Proposition 14 at its April 10 monthly meeting. The Club’s web page has a You Tube of parts of the discussion, which can be seen at this link.
Former State Senator Steve Peace, a leader in the fight to get Proposition 14 on the ballot, spoke for fifteen minutes in favor. Then Richard Winger spoke for fifteen minutes against. Then both speakers took questions from the audience.
Here is a video with an excerpt of Richard:
Who mentioned P.R. and A.V. ??? = NO primaries are needed.
Wonderful comments, Richard. Well done.
Prop 14 is probably the worst initiative to ever appear on the ballot in the history of California elections. Not suprisingly, it was placed on the ballot by the state legislature.
You go, Richard! Great job in fighting the good fight.
Prop 14 is an abomination, and let’s hope Californians
have the good sense to reject it.
The focus is all wrong here.
Every democratic nation on the planet earth has all political parties and independents on a general election ballot. PERIOD. Prop. 14 is FASCISM. A dictatorship by two larger political groups to control everyone else.
How many of the party hack gerrymander monsters in one party safe seat gerrymander districts will actually have *some* real opposition if Prop 14 is adopted ???
Currently such monsters have ZERO *real* opposition in Nov. general elections- due to the rigged gerrymander districts.
Sorry– the minor party hacks / independents have ZERO real effect in 95 plus percent of the gerrymander districts.
P.R. and A.V. = REAL reforms
Louisiana has conducted 9 gubernatorial elections under its Open Non-Party Primary. 2 elections the governor was term limited.
Of the remaining 7 elections:
Incumbent governor re-elected 2 times (1979, 1999)
Incumbent governor defeated 3 times (1983, 1987, 1991)
Incumbent governor does not seek re-election in face of almost certain defeat (1995, 2007).
In 2004, Christine Gregoire and Dino Rossi were nominated in party primaries. Just because 12% of voters in Washington did not vote for any candidate in the primary in the top of the ticket gubernatorial race does not mean that it was not a party primary.
It is likely that many of those 12% discarded votes were cast by voters who refused to color within the lines set by the legislature and Gary Locke’s ill-advised veto of the Top 2 Open Primary. Maybe some cheated and used both red and blue crayons, or even crayons of other colors. And some others may have deliberately cast a blank ballot in protest.
Perhaps some of the support for the Top 2 Open Primary initiative (approved 2 months later) was in response to the type of candidates that were nominated by the party primaries. Richard Winger should clarify to the Escondido Democrats that party primaries nominated Christine Gregoire and Dino Rossi in 2004.
The 2004 gubernatorial election was one of the closest in US history, not being decided until completion of the 2nd recount days before Christmas. A state court later determined that at least 1700 votes were cast illegally (dead persons, double votes, felons, non-approved provisional ballots). This was more than 10 times the apparent plurality.
The court noted that the two parties were searching for illegal votes cast in areas that were strongholds for the opponent, since they were seeking to have the election overturned on statistical grounds (eg if 60% of the votes in a precinct were cast for candidate A, then one might infer that 60% of the legal votes and 60% of the illegal votes from that precinct were for candidate A).
The court rejected use of statistical methods, and was only able to determine who a mere 5 of the illegal votes were cast for. The dead voters were not talking. We simply are unable to determine who received the most legal votes in 2004. It can not be proven that Christine Gregoire did not receive the most legal votes, so she was elected.
The 2004 election made it inevitable that Gregoire and Rossi would meet again in 4 years. Before the Top 2 Open Primary could be implemented in Washington, the political parties, Democratic, Libertarian, and Republican pounced and secured an injunction. The US Supreme Court would later characterize this injunction as an “extraordinary and precipitous nullification of the will of the people.”
It was not until March 2008 that the US Supreme Court overturned the decision of the lower courts. This was less than 3 months before the filing deadline, and during this time the political parties were actively trying to prevent implementation.
It is extremely unbelievable that new credible candidates for governor would jump in at this time. So Christine Gregoire and Dino Rossi appeared on the August primary ballot along with 8 other candidates. Between them, they received 94.6% of the vote. Gregoire received 97.7% of the vote cast for Democratic candidates. Rossi received 96.2% of the vote cast for Republican candidates. Only 0.9% of voters failed to vote for a gubernatorial candidate in 2008, as compared to the 12% in 2004.
If the 2008 primary had been conducted under the failed Pick-A-Party primary used in 2004, Christine Gregoire and Dino Rossi would have been re-nominated by their respective parties.
In 2006 under the party primary regime, there was one 3rd party or independent candidate on the general election ballot for the legislature in Washington (approximately 120 races), even though such candidates could directly qualify for the general election ballot.
In 2008, there were 5 such candidates who finished in Top 2 and qualified for the general election ballot. None were elected, but they did receive a credible share of the vote (42%, 38%, 26%, 24%, and 11%). The single 3rd party candidate in 2004 only received 5% of the general election vote.
In Louisiana, under its Open Non-Party Primary, a larger share of its legislature was elected as independents than all but one of the 47 states that use party primaries (Nebraska uses non-partisan elections, and Washington has used the Top 2 Open Primary for one general election, and a few special elections). So Louisiana does better than 46 of the 47 States that still use party primaries.
In the Louisiana House, independents hold the balance of power: 50 Republicans, 50 Democrats, 3 independents, and 2 vacancies. Recently one of the independent candidates was elected Speaker Pro Tempore by his fellow House members.
In California, the barrier to ballot qualification for independent candidates is extreme, averaging 6,200 for Assembly members and the 12,400 for the senate. Because the signatures must be by district voters it is likely to require collection of many many more, especially in urban areas. Under the implementing legislation of Proposition 14, this would be reduced to 40.
Note: Steve Peace made the same mistake I had been making with respect to qualification for statewide office. The number of signatures is 65 to 100 (100 is a maximum not a minimum). While it may be wise to secure 100 signatures, the same holds true for the 173,041 signatures currently required for statewide partisan office. If we use a guideline of 1.5 times the minimum, a careful independent candidate should collect over a quarter-million signatures.
#7: Louisiana: “Incumbent governor re-elected 2 times (1979, 1999)
Incumbent governor defeated 3 times (1983, 1987, 1991)”
Gov. Edwin Edwards was term-limited in 1979. He had been re-elected in 1975, the first year that the state used the “open primary.” Edwards was first elected in 1972, when the state was still using party primaries.
In 1987, Gov. Edwards, who had already been tried for fraud, finished second in the first round. He then declined a runoff, enabling Buddy Roemer to become governor after getting just 33% of the vote.
Both Edwards and Roemer were then Democrats.
Gov. Roemer (1) got divorced and (2) flip-flopped on the abortion issue, both damaging in heavily Catholic Louisiana. He switched to the Republicans in March 1991.
In 1991, the first President Bush and the national Republicans endorsed Roemer, while the state Republican Party backed Congressman Clyde Holloway. Roemer finished third and Holloway fourth.
The runoff was between Edwards and David Duke, ex-Grand Dragon of the Ku Klux Klan. A crook versus a sheet-head! (Edwards, a notorious womanizer, remarked that he and Duke were both “wizards under the sheets.”)
Bush, Roemer, and the Republican leadership supported the Democrat Edwards over the Republican Duke. With the eyes of the nation on them, many Louisianans held their noses and voted for Edwards, who won with 61 percent.
#8 Again, Vermont has eight non-duopoly members of its state legislature (six Progressives and two Independents) and has elected Bernie Sanders several times to the House and finally to the Senate in 2006.
Three other states have elected Independent Governors in recent years and all of them use party primaries.
As for the non-duopoly candidates that made it past the Top Two primary in Washington, they all have something in common: They did it by default. There was only one major party candidate that ran in the primary. Other states have easily done better in getting non-duopoly legislative candidates on the November ballot.
The 2004 election is most directly comparable to 2008 in Washington. There were third party candidates on the November ballot in every statewide partisan race in 2004 and none in 2008. There were third party candidates on the November ballot in four of the nine House of Representatives races in 2004 and none in 2008.
Sorry, that should be independent or third party governors.
In the rare instance that an independent or small party candidate reaches the final round in the “top two open primary,” he/she almost always then needs 50%-plus to be elected.
In almost every system of party primaries, in contrast, 50%-plus is NOT required to win the general election. Furthermore, in such a system, (1) all independents who qualify are guaranteed a place on the general election ballot, and (2) all qualified parties are empowered to have a candidate in the general election.
A candidate cannot be elected to office unless he or she first makes it to the final election ballot.
#9 Yes 1975 was one of the two elections where an incumbent was re-elected, sorry about the error.
Of the 9 elections held under Top 2, there were two instances where the governor was term-limited (1979 Edwards, 2003 Foster). So even though a new governor was elected, it can not be attributed to the Open Primary.
Of the remaining 7, in three cases, the incumbent was defeated. If a candidate finishes 2nd and then withdraws because he knew he would be beaten in the runoff, I classify it as a defeat. So 1987, is no different than 1983, when Treen finished 2nd, but Edwards had a majority; or 1991, when Roemer finished 3rd.
I think it is fair to say that in 1995 (Edwards) and 2003 (Blanco), that a high probability of defeat was a factor in the decision not to seek re-election. Do you agree?
Richard Winger has said that the incumbent almost always wins under Top 2. It certainly is not true with regard to the governorship. 2/7 is a very poor approximation of “almost always”.
It is true for the congressional elections. I think there have only been 3 cases where an incumbent was defeated.
In 1980 Buddy Roemer defeated Buddy Leach. In the inaugural Open Primary, the seat was open after Joe D. Waggonner had retired after 9 terms. Leach finished 1st, Republican Jimmy Wilson was 2nd, and Roemer was 3rd. Leach narrowly (266 votes) defeated Wilson in the runoff. 23 persons pleaded guilty to vote buying, and 2 more were convicted. The House on a party-line vote later decided that 66 votes had been bought, and kept Leach in office, though he was tainted.
In 1980, Leach, Wilson, and Roemer ran again, but this time Roemer finished 2nd. He defeated Leach in the runoff by 62-36.
The other two instances were both in 1992, and were due to pairing of representatives following redistricting. Louisiana had lost its 8th representative, and that election had seen the creation of the Mark-of-Zorro district, so in effect 8 incumbents were forced into 6 districts. When the Mark of Zorro district was eliminated, Cleo Fields did not seek re-election.
In 2008, two incumbents were defeated using the party primary system. William Jefferson was defeated due to a combination of corruption charges, and Hurricane Gustav delaying the general election until December.
Don Cazayoux had only been in office 6 months after narrowly winning a special election in May so had not had the opportunity to develop a strong incumbency. I don’t really think you can attribute either of these elections to the use of party primaries.
How many incumbent members of Congress have been defeated in Mississippi over the last 30 years?
#13: Yes, Gov. Edwards in 1995 was facing yet more corruption charges. And Gov. Blanco, who had only beaten Bobby Jindal (GIN-dle) by 52% to 48% in 2003, would surely have lost to him in 2007.
I’m sure that Richard Winger’s analysis includes much more than gubernatorial and U. S. House results.
It should be noted that the Democrat Cazayoux was hurt by the presence of a black independent candidate in 2008. Did the Republican Cassidy win that race with 50%-plus?
Mississippians cherish congressional seniority, so it’s really tough to dislodge an incumbent.
U. S. Rep. Web Franklin (R) lost to Mike Espy (D) in 1986. Black precincts kept being added to that district until it was impossible for a white Republican to be elected (that’s the seat now held by Comrade Bennie Thompson).
Rep. Ronnie Shows (D) lost to Rep. Chip Pickering (R) in 2002. Redistricting placed them in the same district.
Before the blacks wised up and started working almost totally in the Democratic Party, black independents helped Republicans to win a number of races.
In a 1972 US House race, there was a black independent from the Democratic nominee’s home county. Thad Cochran (R) won with 47.9%, with the independent getting a critical 8.2%. Cochran, who benefitted from President Nixon’s coattails, only carried two counties (he had intended to run as a Democrat, until the Republican leaders approached him).
Cochran, who has led a charmed life, was elected US senator in 1978 with 45.0%. The Democrat got 31.8%; Charles Evers, a black independent, got 22.9%; and another black independent got 0.3%.
In 1980, US Rep. Jon Hinson (R) was re-elected with 39%. The black independent ran second, and the Democrat was third.
The last time a Mississippi US senator was beaten was in 1942. Jim Eastland defeated the senator who had won the special election in 1941.
Mississippi, incidentally, has never attempted to impose the “top two open primary” for its congressional elections. All five of the “open primary” bills passed between 1966 and 1979 were for our state and local elections only.
#14 Three Louisiana congressmen in 2008 did not receive a majority in the general election.
Louisiana refers to their two stages as the gubernatorial primary and gubernatorial general election. The primary is the 2nd to last Saturday in October in an election year. The general election is 4 Saturdays later. The election year is every 4th year beginning from 1983.
While it does hold its state elections in November, they are neither on a Tuesday nor towards the beginning of the month.
Under current law, the congressional first primary is in the first Saturday in September, the congressional second primary is the first Saturday in October, and the general election is on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November.
Because the congressional elections are conducted under a unique system (for Louisiana) there is a ton of language defining their conduct.
HB 292 would set the congressional primary for the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November.
The congressional general election is the first Saturday in December.
Because the congressional primary and general election are conducted using the same rules as other partisan elections, a lot of special language can be eliminated. The differences are mainly related to the dates of the elections.
#15: Anytime Louisiana has a choice, it holds elections on Saturdays.
As the three-judge federal panel quoted in Evers v. State Board of Election Commissioners (1971), the Louisiana system is a two-step general election. The main difference between its first round and other general elections is that the field of candidates has not been winnowed by party primaries or some other nominating process.
A congressional “primary” on federal general election day… amazing!!
The 2002 US Senate runoff between Mary Landrieu (D) and Suzanne Terrell (R) was held on Saturday, December 7.
#16 I suspect that if you look at the official documents that a congressional general election was held on December 7, 2002 because neither Terrell nor Landrieu received a majority in the congressional primary election held on November 5, 2002.
The SOS website has election schedules for several past years. Prior to Foster v Love they list a “Congressional Primary” and a “Congressional General”. After that it is “Congressional Election” and “Congressional Runoff”.
For 2010 they have “First Party Primary”, “Open Primary/Second Party Primary” and “Open General/Congressional General”.
While Louisiana conducts most state elections in odd years, they do have some non-federal elections in even years, which are conducted using an open primary on the same date as the half-semiclosed second party primary.
This year have a pair of special elections to fill House vacancies. The primary election is May 1. The general election is May 29. The general elections of course might be cancelled.
#17: State laws sometimes feature incorrect terminology.
Even federal judges sometimes make mistakes. I came across this piece which lists some errors that district Judge Allen Pepper made in the open primary suit, Mississippi Democratic Party v. Barbour.
Shucks, on very rare occasions, even people from Texas make minor mistakes.