On April 25, the San Francisco Chronicle and the Sacramento Bee both endorsed Proposition 14, the California “top-two” ballot measure. However, both of these newspapers had also endorsed Proposition 62 in 2004. Proposition 62 was an earlier version of the “top-two” measure, and it was defeated by the voters.
The Los Angeles Times, which had earlier endorsed Proposition 14, carried a letter to the editor on April 23 by Ted Brown that opposes Proposition 14. This is the first content that the Los Angeles Times has printed that criticizes the measure, since it carried an op-ed over a year ago by Steve Hill.
The Sacramento Bee editorial is here. It says that if “top-two” were in force, Greens in San Francisco would be likely to place first or second in the June primary, and thus be able to place a candidate on the November ballot. The Bee editorial board knew that the election returns from the California blanket primary returns rebut this assertion. In 1998 the Green candidate for Governor, Dan Hamburg, placed fifth inside San Francisco. There was no U.S. Senate race in 1998. In 2000, Ralph Nader placed fifth in the blanket presidential primary within San Francisco. Also in 2000, Green U.S. Senate candidate Medea Benjamin placed third inside San Francisco. In 2003, in the special gubernatorial election in which all candidates appeared on the same ballot, Peter Camejo placed third in San Francisco. All the data rebuts the idea that Greens would place first or second within San Francisco, and the Bee had that data, but the Bee ignored the data and instead promulgated its unsupported speculation.
There were no Green Party candidates on the ballot in the blanket primary years in San Francisco for U.S. House or for state legislature.
The jack-boots are marching. There is the smell of FASCISM in the air.
The McClatchy Newspapers, with the Sacramento Bee as a flagship paper, has become the darling of National Public Radio. They dominate print media in South and North Carolina, with ownership of The State in Columbia, SC, the Charlotte Observer and Raleigh News and Observer. They also own the Rock Hill Herald and several other print papers in SC. They are corporate media to the core. I was told that I should be grateful that a “liberal” newspaper chain bought our state’s print media. This is but ONE example of why I am not a liberal!
It would be naive to expect voters to behave the same under a blanket primary, as they would under a Top 2 Open Primary. Voters will recognize that the Green Party candidate is unopposed, and will vote in another party for that race. You might recall the legislative race where there were two Libertarians, one Democrat and one Republican, and the Libertarians had two or three times as many votes as they had registered voters.
As you are probably aware, in the blanket primary races where there were no actual contests for the nomination, minor party candidates did better in the primary than in the general election. This is likely because voters felt freer to vote their actual favorite, knowing they would still get a 2nd chance in the general election.
Dan Hamburg also appears to have been a horrible candidate in San Francisco. In the general election he was beaten by Dan Lungren in every single neighborhood, even where Lungren only had 5% of the total vote.
The Lt.Governor candidate, Sara Amir, had 4.5 times as large a share of the vote as Hamburg in the general election. In neighborhoods where Lungren had beaten Hamburg, Amir beat the Republican nominee Tim Leslie by a 4:1 margin. Sara Amir finished 2nd in the general election in AD 13.
There was a senatorial race in 1998. There was no Green candidate. I tend to agree with you that a Green Candidate will not finish 1st or 2nd in AD 13, for the simple reason that they appear unwilling to run a candidate.
In 2000, there were contested Democratic and Republican nominations. Green voters cast 31.3% of their votes for Democratic candidates (Gore and Bradley), and 9.6% for Republicans (McCain and Bush). Besides, Proposition 14 doesn’t change the Presidential Primary. 4 out of 6 political parties will be able to ignore the votes of their party members just like they did in 2008.
In 2000, Benjamin trailed Tom Campbell by only 0.6% in AD 13, and defeated him in 4 of 11 supervisor districts. The Democratic candidate was the former mayor of the city, which probably drew a few hometown votes.
In the general election, Benjamin did finish 2nd in AD 14 (Oakland, Berkeley, Richmond). In the Alameda County portion of the district she led Tom Campbell by almost a 1.9 to 1 margin.
In 2002, Peter Camejo finished second in San Francisco, and led Bill Simon by 5% in AD 13, and beat him in 5 of the 11 supervisor districts.
How soon before P.R. and A.V. are endorsed by ALL media folks ???
NO primaries are needed.
ALL prior election stuff means ZERO when a basic change is made in the election system.
—– like trying to predict in 1761 what would happen in 1776 if the British monarchy was abolished in 13 British colonies in North America.