On April 29, Great Britain held the final of a series of three debates between the party leaders of the Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democratic Parties. This news story has video excerpts.
On April 29, Great Britain held the final of a series of three debates between the party leaders of the Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democratic Parties. This news story has video excerpts.
Does Clegg have a shot at winning? He hasn’t dropped out suddenly and accused the Conservatives of sabotaging his daughter’s wedding, so I think it is possible. If the Lib Dems end up holding the balance of power, they need to get proportional representation as their first priority.
I think it all depends on if wasted vote syndrome kicks in when it comes time to vote.
The Lib Dems historically are probably most in line with the British electorate, but the perception they can’t win is holding them back.
I couldn’t help but include some Perot references…
I think the wasted vote syndrome is lessened whenever a citizen is more represented in general. Each MP represents around 100,000 people where our representatives each are representing four times as many people. I don’t know a lot about their politics, but I am watching this race closely.
If we had listened to our Constitution, our Congress would have 100 Senators plus 10,000 Representatives. Of course, a more feasible approach would be to have 1 Rep per 300,000 or so people. But, with that, a mssive pay cut for each Congress member would have to come into play.
As a member of the Liberal Democrats I can assure you that PR will be the price for our party to join a coalotion. English MP’s on average represent around 72,000 people. This is lower for M.P’s representing constituencies within the other three countries of the Kingdom.
#1- The LibDems have no realistic shot of gaining a majority of the seats in Commons. They could very well poll the 2nd highest number of votes and still fail to win 100 seats (of the 632 allotted to England, Scotland and Wales). If they work with either the Tories or Labour their number one issue is electoral reform which neither of the two major parties wants since they would both probably have to permanently share power. The LibDem leader is constrained by party rules as to just what he can do insofar as working together in coalition. He must get permission from his membership before any deal which compromises party manifesto positions is struck. It should be interesting.
Attempting to guess the number of seats on polling %’s and its relation to the 2005 figures (either the unaltered or altered ones to reflect the new boundary changes) is a total waste of time. On their good polls under this flawed system, the Lib Dems should come out with 100 or more MP’s, nearly doubling their current number.
However, at the end of the day, if those votes are in the right places and votes for the other parties are in the wrong places then they could possibly be the main opposition, or even take Government. If Labour can get a reasonable majority of seats on 33% of the vote then I’m sure the Lib Dems can too under the right conditions. What has helped them in the past is that their polling and seat predictions in previous elections including the 2005 one were always poor before election day and then woke up the next day to a pleasant surprise.
The party leadership said absolutely no to coalitions, they’d better keep their damn promise else when the next election comes (be it later this year again or next year) my vote will be switching.
No to PR, no to a coalition Government.
#7- I have looked at many polls as well as many variations of “swingometers” and the way the constituencies are rigged there is no realistic way the LibDems could win more than 130 seats. To do that would require them to poll 35% of the vote which is just not very likely. I am confused as to why you say they should not press for electoral reform as a condition to working in coalition with one of the other parties. It could make the party the like German FDP; a party with a virtually perpetual role in government.
@4: Smaller districts might mean smaller staffs, too.