Nate Silver Column Says Presidential Candidate Outside Both Major Parties Could Conceivably Win in 2012

Nate Silver has this interesting essay on the New York Times politics blog, about the possibility that the 2012 presidential election could be won by someone who is not the nominee of either major party.  Thanks to Dan Tokaji for the link.


Comments

Nate Silver Column Says Presidential Candidate Outside Both Major Parties Could Conceivably Win in 2012 — 5 Comments

  1. He also said it’s “conceivable” the Republicans could win 80 house seats. But he also put odds on that outcome: 1 in 200.

    So, you know, don’t get too excited.

  2. Many things can be “conceivable” until you put a real flesh-and-blood person as an actual candidate. Once there’s an actual person, his/her positives and negatives come into play.
    Then there are other factors, such as how the candidate does on the stump and, if allowed, on debates.
    A case in point is Colin Powell. In 1995 there were polls suggesting he could win in ’96 as an independent. If he had run, then his abilities (or lack of them) as a campaigner would have become a factor. Of course, we’ll never know.

  3. C’mon how hard can it be to campaign. Look at Bushie II who read from the same exact teleprompted script every single time he got up on a stage in 2000 and 2004. Its all about perception. Granted he didn’t flub in the debates, but its not that hard.

  4. Yeah. Sure. The EVIL incumbent gerrymander MONSTERS will do ANY THING possible to stop any REAL threat to the ANTI-Democracy gerrymander system.

    The U.S.A. has been as *democratic* as a rock on the Moon since 4 July 1776 — i.e. a nonstop oligarchy — sometimes very close to a monarchy (depending on the EVIL in each Prez brain).

    ONLY the voter petitions for constitutional amendments in about 18 States are a safety valve.

    P.R. and App.V.

  5. Nate is a numbers dude. Cool stuff. Wat is to not love about numbers. Hey it makes flight, light, super speed lingo possible.

    All of wat is to come is not predictable…unless all voting machines are hacked…

    Oh…wait …that’s already been proved to have happened in multiple states, like Alabamea….

    Nate nails it. ….

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