Political pundit Charlie Cook has this article in National Journal. He first summarizes recent past elections. Each of the three last congressional elections saw large swings in the partisan lineup of the U.S. House. These are called “wave elections”, and 2010, 2008, and 2006 stand in sharp contrast to the preceding elections, when the national vote for U.S. House had been almost tied between the two major parties.

Cook also suggests that 2012 may be different from each of the last three elections, and that 2012 will be very bad for incumbents of both parties. He doesn’t quite say that perhaps 2012 will see a surge in support for candidates running outside the two major parties, but that seems to be his message. Thanks to Nancy Hanks for the link.