The California Secretary of State has placed this chart on her web page. It shows how many signatures Americans Elect submitted on its petition to be a party, by county. If a particular county has already checked signatures (using a random sample), the chart shows the results. So far, the validity is at 76.8%, which shows that the petition is very likely to succeed. The chart will be updated daily. Not all counties have reported the number of signatures submitted, so as of today, the chart cannot be used to know how many signatures were submitted in the entire state. Americans Elect says it submitted 1,630,000 signatures to meet a requirement of 1,030,040.
Let’s see how this compares to Arno’s chargebacks.
916.812.9024
The Los Angeles raw count was turned in on the 20th, which put the raw count over one million and triggered the SOS to tell the counties to begin doing random checks.
A curiosity is that several of the counties where the petitions had been turned in August went ahead and counted signatures. This may have caused the AE to extend its drive (San Bernadino, Orange, Ventura, and Alameda, San Joaquin, and Alpine have not submitted raw counts).
Only two counties with so much as 10,000 signatures have done a random sample. Placer had 71% validity, which could make it very close; while Sonoma projects 80% which is much more comfortable.
The validity percentage appears to be the average of the county validity rates, which would mean that Los Angeles would be weighed the same as Alpine, which is an erroneous measure to use. If areas like LA have worse yields, it could be pretty close whether a full count is required.
In Texas, the Kinky Friedman campaign had transcribed the petitions and then compared them to the voter registration data base, and had much better yield than that for Carole of the Many Names. Is that done in California?
Isn’t the CP also doing a petition drive in CA?
#2
Jim,
Yes. The statewide companies query the names against the voter information purchased either from the counties or the Secretary of State. People checked the accuracy of Arno’s file and found significant discrepancies when they checked the signatures at the local registrars. Any guess who the discrepancies favored? Arno claimes people owe him money based on his internal esatimates. When questioned about his accuracy and methodology, he responds much the same way a cockroach responds to direct sunlight. The county registrars do not have a vested, financial interest in claiming peoples work is substandard. It’s showtime!
R.F.
What folks in CA will do a P.R./App.V/equal ballot access petition to save what little is left of REAL Democracy in the U.S.A. ???
#5
Demo Rep,
It doesn’t appear it will be Americans Elect.
R.F.
#3, the Constitution Party is not doing a petition in California. Americans Elect is the only group that has used the obscure 10% petition method in California, since 1947-1948, when the Henry Wallace Independent Progressive Party did it.
All the newly-qualifying parties that qualified in California in the 2nd half of the 20th century used the 1% registration method.
CP could be said to be holding a registration drive, but they are so far from making it that way that it is not even funny.
Realistically, for them, the only path back to ballot access in CA is through the courts.
Americans Elect will get on the CA ballot. Even in the unlikely case that this 10% petition fails, they can still go back and do a voter registration drive, which they can afford. And even if that fails too, or they decide to spend the money more prudently, or the deadline passes, they can certainly afford to put their eventual ticket on the CA ballot as independents, which would have been the logical thing to do if they didn’t have money to burn.
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They moved the link:
http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/ballot-measures/americans-elect.htm
#10, thank you very much. I have just now fixed the link.
All counties except Alameda and Alpine have done raw counts. Alameda County can’t seem to get past 3. Alpine County is still snowed in.
1,560,000 for the other counties, and 70,000 for Alameda is plausible.
If you look at the counties where a full check was done, you will observe that the duplicate rate is what would be expected on a constitutional amendment. While I have no doubt he had to do some cleanup (every company does)in the larger counties, but the constants do not indicate an excessively high duplicate ratio. At some point Arno will have sopme explaining to do, if this trend continues.
#13 Alameda and Sacramento have just turned in their sample counts and they are both under 70%. Santa Cruz was under 60%. It is not a good thing if the big counties are coming in that low when most signatures are from big counties (1/3 are from Los Angeles).
If current trends hold up, it will need a full count.
True enough. however he claimed some circulators who’s work I have personally verified on numerous campaigns spanning over a decade was below 60%(at least 10% below the worst I ever checked & 15% below their cumulative rates). Alameda and Sacramento are what would be expected, although there is indication he crossed off some duplicates. He refuses to produce any more than a spreadsheet of chargebacks, and lashes out at any request for more info. He seems to be using his direct vendors business as human shields (much the way the two bit despots of he middle east cower behind UN humanitarian aid workers) in his reign of financial terror.