Howard Megdal has this article in Salon, suggesting that the Republican presidential primaries and caucuses might elect a delegate field in which no one candidate has a majority of the delegates. He also suggests that in that case, it is possible that the convention might choose someone for President who did not even run in the presidential primaries. The last major party nominee who had not run in any primaries or caucuses was Hubert Humphrey, the Democratic nominee in 1968. Thanks to both Political Wire and Rick Hasen for the link.
The major party conventions throughtout most of the nation’s history were much earlier, so it was somewhat more practical for the national conventions themselves to make the decision as to whom to nominate. For most of the 20th century, major party presidential conventions were in June. The upcoming Republican convention won’t convene until August 27, 2012.
Ironic. Hubert Humphrey was the last Democrat nominee who didn’t run in any of the primaries, just the caucuses (with the help of the party bosses), and he was the last great Democrat.
Every time there are more than two major candidates in a primary season, pundits start talking about a brokered convention. But I don’t think we will ever see a brokered major-party convention again in the lifetime of anybody reading this. The primary season works so differently now than it used to.
2 –
100%, absolutely, positively balls-on correct. After candidates lose Iowa and New Hampshire, thus failing to be anointed as viable by roughly 1/10th of one percent of the electorate, the money runs dry and their campaigns die.
Actually, the number of people who voted in 2008 in the New Hampshire presidential primaries, and the Iowa caucuses, was about 700,000 people, so that is about one-half of 1% of the number of people who voted in November 2008.
4 – HA! Not bad for a flat-out guess! And a pretty pathetic way to nominate candidates, wouldn’t you say?
I have more faith in party bosses than I do in the average voter. A brokered convention would pick a better candidate than the primaries. The average voter is swayed by talk radio, television pundits and mass marketing. The party leaders put deal making first. That is what real politics is about, making deals.
6 –
“Deal making?” American politics is about deal making?
Do you get newspapers where you live?
Deals = which gang can LOOT the regime treasury the most —
i.e. GET the most EVIL N-E-T taxes/borrowing possible — govt officers, employees, contractors, interest getters and now esp. WELFARE folks.
See the pending ROT in Europe — i.e. the bankrupt PIIGS regimes — if not ALL of the Europe regimes.
—
1968 — MAJOR chaos in the streets due to the EVIL Vietnam War. The top robot party hacks picked Humphrey after Prez Johnson would NOT run again — due to the zillion protests. Result — Nixon and later Watergate (attempted subversion of the Constitution.
Minor good point — the internal WAR in the Donkeys to get P.R. nomination systems in the 1968-1988 Donkey Conventions. Result Clinton in 1992 and 1996.
P.R. and nonpartisan App.V.
# 8 add – and Obama in 2008.
Stone Age math —
A handful of top robot party hacks doing ANY thing — i.e. making their EVIL *deals* = OLIGARCHY
— tending always to be a MONARCHY — think death and destruction — Hitler, Mussolini, Hirohito, etc.
How many $$$ billions was spent on the now dead super-committee (gang of 12) machinations ???