Independent Political Report has this story, saying Gary Johnson’s campaign manager has said that the probability that Gary Johnson will seek the Libertarian Party presidential nomination is 99%.
The Libertarian Party was able to place its presidential nominee on the ballot in either 50 states, or 49 states, in 1980, 1992, 1996, and 2000. The Libertarian Party has a possibility of placing its presidential nominee on the ballot of all 50 states in 2012. Much will depend on whether the party’s national officers decide to spend money on the ongoing Oklahoma petition drive, which currently has 30,000 signatures. The law requires 51,739 valid signatures by March 2012.
A newspaper story recently reported that Americans Elect will have spent $10,000,000 on ballot access, by the time petitioning for the 2012 election is over. 50-state ballot access for a party (other than the Democratic and Republican Parties) is a precious asset. Yet some members of the Libertarian Party National Committee are reluctant to spend relatively small amounts of money on ballot access during the odd years before presidential election years, even though petitioning in the odd years before election years is less expensive.
How many BILLIONS of $$$ will the Donkeys give to the LP in order to — guess what —
DIVIDE and CONQUER.
Worked in 1992 and even in about 50 B.C. with Julius Caesar.
As for AE, when you have no grassroots support whatsoever, I would think it would be expensive to get on the ballot.
For Demo Rep-
It is a myth that Perot swung the election to Clinton in 1992. Exit polls from that election show numbers ranging from 55-low 60s percent of Perot voters would have voted for Clinton if Perot were not on the ballot. Much of Perot’s vote was mostly anti-incumbent in nature. And when Perot dropped out the polls swung significantly to Clinton favor giving him his first lead, one he would never relinquish. Even Frank Luntz admits this (in fact he is one of the few who correct newsmen who make the claim that Perot swung the election to Clinton). The myth was created in 1994 when a majority of Perot voters went GOP in the midterms and later in 1996 when Perot got less than half of his previous vote % and the majority of them said they would have voted for Dole if not for Perot. Sadly the media was easily manipulated by some Republicans who wished to delegitimize the Clinton presidency.
How many folks LIE to ALL pollsters — to be *politically correct* and/or to make the MORON pollsters seem like total idiots ???
See the 1948 Prez election.
For Dem Rep-
Yeah that doesn’t quite fly. Exit polls are quite accurate. Find me one that was more than a couple of points off and I would be surprised. Secondly the 1948 polling was done only through phones (and it wasn’t exit polling which didn’t really exist at the time). The polls showed the Dewey victory before the election because a large number of Americans still didn’t have phones. The wealthier voters were more Republican.
Point being that just because you don’t like the result of a poll doesn’t mean it isn’t true. Simply dismissing empirical evidence because it doesn’t fit your preconceived notions is the epitome of ignorance.
#5, I believe you are mixing up the 1948 election polling error with the 1936 election polling error. It was 1936 when the Literary Digest telephone poll erroneously predicted Roosevelt would be defeated, because the Literary Digest didn’t take into account the difference between households with phones and those without.
By 1948, the vast majority of Americans had phones in their homes. The 1948 polling error was that the big polling companies stopping polling too soon. The polls that predicted a Dewey victory probably were accurate when they were taken, but public opinion shifted in the last two weeks of the campaign toward Truman.
You are right about the ’36 poll and it’s infamy (which apparently only James Farley seemed smart enough to see it’s flaw) but ’48 is also at least partially blamed on the phone issue as well. But you are also right about the apparent wave at the end. Either way scientific polling had been far from perfected at that point and really has no relevance to the 1992 exit polls, which was my point to Dem Rep.
Johnson would be a much better match for the LP than was Bob Barr. He does not have to apologize for any of his actions as an elected official as did Barr regarding DOMA & PATRIOT Act. I could get behind this ticket if Paul doesn’t earn oil party nomination.
So the big question is who’s nomination will be first, GOPs or Libertarians’? I would guess Libertarians’ since the GOP’s was in August last time. Will Ron Paul’s Libertarian supporters then bail from his campaign? If that timing is after the state primaries, will it matter much? What if Paul wins the GOP nom? Does Gary Johnson then just become a token party candidate?
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The genius pollsters have mind reading abilities to detect folks who LIE to them ???
How about using such power to detect the zillion lies by Prez candidates ???
i.e. I, the candidate, promise you the moon, the Sun and even the universe, IF you vote for me to be YOUR Prez – tyrant, leader, chief robot party hack, etc.
Keep in mind that Gary Johnson has already said he won’t make a third party bid for the presidency.
And why would they lie to the pollsters about that Demo Rep? And if they lied then how come the exit polls were so close to the actual outcome in the election. You don’t have a shred of evidence to back up your claim. Time to start dealing with facts. You live in a fantasy world where you come up with some rationalization, no matter how absurd, to explain why your side failed, whether it be electorally or with policy