Paul Mitchell has this insightful column in Capitol Weekly, a Sacramento, California politics periodical. The Mitchell column analyzes how Proposition 14 is going to work, with an emphasis on the stark difference between its effects on Democrats, versus Republicans.
Public sector unions have always opposed the Top 2 Open Primary because they can target members of their groups in the Democratic primary, both in terms of turnout and candidate endorsement.
Let’s say that you can target 20% of the Democratic electorate that is somehow affiliated with your group, and 50% will turnout, and 90% will follow your endorsement; while only 40% of other Democrat voters will turn out, and vote somewhat randomly in a low information race.
The random voters would have to vote somewhat decisively (62% against your endorsed candidate), even though they are 76% of the electorate.
From the article: “For the past several election cycles, decline-to-state voters have been able to select a Democratic or Republican ballot, allowing them to vote in all of that party’s contests. But the new order is different: Now they can vote in June for a Democrat for Senate and a Republican for Assembly. However, history shows that voters very rarely split the ticket in this manner.”
But sometimes history does not predict the future. I think with a larger percent of the electorate now independent, no party affiliation, this option of selecting candidates not parties could be the future. But this experiment could not work and a newer voting system will be tried.
I guess what I am saying is what ever the voting system is it needs ALL the voters taking part to be a valid system.
Voters will more likely split their vote in high information elections. They would be somewhat less likely to split at the legislative level – but California senatorial districts are huge (over 900,000 persons) and assembly districts are also large, so voters may be able perceive a candidate as more than a simple party-man.
CA — revised gerrymander commission = useless
top 2 primary = useless
ALL district schemes are AUTOMATIC minority rule regimes –
1/2 votes x 1/2 districts = 1/4 CONTROL.
P.R. = THE reform to make ALL votes count.