Virginia holds its gubernatorial election on November 5, 2013. It is assumed that Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli will be the Republican nominee and that Terry McAuliffe, former chair of the Democratic national committee, will be the Democratic nominee. The state’s Lieutenant Governor, Bill Bolling, elected as a Republican in 2009, has hinted he will be an independent “centrist” candidate for Governor this year.
This Quinnipiac University Poll shows that if all three candidates are on the ballot, the entry of Bolling into the race is not necessarily harmful to the Republican Party’s chances of winning the race. When Bolling is left out of the poll, the results are tied: Cuccinelli 38%; McAuliffe 38%. When Bolling is included, the results are still too close to predict the winner: Cuccinelli 31%, McAuliffe 34%, Bolling 13%.
Cuccinelli has called for ballot access reform this year, which is occurring in the legislature. McAuliffe, on the other hand, is somewhat well-known for being the architect of national Democratic Party efforts in 2004 to keep Ralph Nader off the ballot in as many states as possible. Conceivably that could be a campaign issue in Virginia this year, especially since a trial in Maine over McAuliffe did in 2004 will probably occur this year. Thanks to PoliticalWire for the link to the poll.
Yeah this has been an ongoing story for awhile now. There was another poll in early January that also had Bolling at 13%, and McAuliffe and Cuccinelli tied (I think at 31%). The interesting thing about that poll is it actually had McAuliffe ahead with Bolling out of the race, so his entry actually HELPED Cuccinelli in that instance. Yet another example of why the wasted voted syndrome is bogus. I imagine if Bolling enters, there’s a good chance his supporters at the start might vote for Cuccinelli otherwise, but then over the course of the campaign he might conceivably attack McAuliffe far more than Cuccinelli, doing more to lower the Democrat’s stature than raise his own. You never know.
The highest Bolling has polled is I believe 15%. Whether he enters might depend on how much funding he expects to receive. While I’m not in love with him as a candidate, he’s far more palatable than Cuccinelli or McAuliffe.