Darth Jeff has this analysis in the June 1 Daily Kos, of the 2012 California top-two experience. His clear charts show the large difference between the electorate in June, and the electorate in November. Almost 2.5 times as many people voted in November as in June, and they weren’t demographically similar. Thanks to AroundtheCapitol for the link.
Another reason to move the Open Primary to September.
Labor unions have used differential vote suppression in the partisan primary, giving them greater control over the Democratic nomination. They would then push voting in the general election knowing that Democratic voters would simply vote D. This strategy is not as effective in an Open primary.
In 2012 you had an unopposed Obama on the top of the primary ballot. There was less enthusiasm, particularly since California doesn’t have a particularly large black population. General election turnout was 2.48 times the primary turnout. In 2008, you had the opposite effect where the presidential primary drew record numbers, and the ratio of the general to the primary was only 1.52.
Typically, the ratio of general to primary voters is smaller in gubernatorial election years, than presidential election years, so that means that this year’s primary results will be more similar to the general election results, particularly with a totally boring gubernatorial race and no senate race.
The results in some of the districts cited in the Kos study were interesting.
In CA-41 Obama led the Democratic congressional candidate Takano by over 10,000 votes, while the Republican candidate led Romney by about 5,000. CA-41 has a somewhat large black population, and a not so large Asian population.
In CA-36. Obama trailed the Democratic congressional candidate Ruiz by over 2,000 votes, while Romney had over led Bono by around 3,000 votes. CA-36, has a somewhat large Hispanic population, and a not very large black population.
NO super dangerous primaries (which only produce extremists) are needed (or wanted).
P.R. and nonpartisan App.V. – pending Condorcet head to head math.
I’m glad the Sith has weighed in on this important issue.