Beth Clarkson, chief statistician for the National Institute for Aviation Research, and a Kansas, has been studying November 2014 Kansas election returns, and she has noted odd patterns in the precinct voting returns. On April 1 she filed a lawsuit in state court to obtain records that would help her to investigate further. See this story. UPDATE: See here for more about Clarkson. Thanks to Rick Hasen for the link.
Data long gone to the political graveyard of false election results ???
Where is the REVOLT about having ANY NO paper election systems ???
Again – See Oregon and now other areas surviving with ALL paper mail ballots — aka PAPER TRAIL.
What evidence is there that Beth Clarkson is questioning the November 2014 election?
If she were a competent statistician she would do some more research into whether there is a demographic relationship with votes cast in an election precinct.
While rural precincts are often quite small, it does not follow that urban precincts are quite large. In rural areas, particularly where the township system is strong, local government and elections are organized on a township basis. The township may have a small hamlet, which may have a grain elevator, which may have a school, or at least an elementary school. The residents will resist consolidation, whether of grain elevators, schools or election precincts.
Towns and cities are divided into precincts. Older parts of cities were developed before widespread access to personal automobiles. Houses were small, and election precincts also small in area, so that voters could walk to the polls. Over time, some of the small cottages have disappeared, torn down, abandoned, or converted to business use. The population has aged, so there are more widows and widowers. The population has declined and there will be resistance to any consolidation of precincts, particularly if the area has a large minority population.
Newer areas, and particularly suburbs were developed with access to the automobile. People think it is ordinary to drive to school, the store, or the polling place. Larger polling places make sense, they will have large parking lots.
And the number of votes cast in a precinct is not 100% correlated with the number of registered voters in the precinct. Votes cast is also dependent on turnout.
Republican turnout, particularly in mid-term election such as 2010 is higher than Democratic turnout. It is not that there is high turnout, and therefore more votes cast, that causes them to be more Republican. It is that they are more Republican, that results in higher turnout, that causes more votes to be cast. Clarkson has cause and effect reversed.
And rural = small is not always true. Greeley County, had the second smallest votes cast in the state. But it only has two election precincts.
In the 2010 Kansas gubernatorial race, the 6 counties with the most votes cast: Johnson, Sedgwick, Shawnee, Douglas, Wyandotte, and Butler had 56% of the vote cast.
Shawnee (Topeka) and Wyandotte (KCK), two of the most Democratic counties had precincts that were relatively low votes cast. By the time the lowest Brownback percentage was reached (62.79% at precincts with 590 or fewer votes cast), almost all of the votes from Shawnee were counted. This left only Douglas to counter the more Republican-leaning Butler, Johnson, and Sedgwick, plus the larger precincts from smaller counties.
I would disagree with following part of the article:
“This is a statistics professor,” Poor said. “She has no motivation for anything political; she just wants to write a paper that will be published in some academic journal nobody in politics is going to see or read.””
I am quite sure this information would be read by people interested in politics.
Brad –
Not at all. See noted Republican tool’s comment above. Roughly translated…”Nothing to see here, folks. Let’s just move along, now.”
Barry Scary,
Where’s your analysis?
Jimbo –
It’s pending the results of independent audit of the software used to run electronic voting machines.
I presume that you, being a staunch Republican supporter of free and fair elections, will support the calls to do so.
Or maybe you are really are just a Republican tool. Scratch “maybe.” It took you all of about two hours to wheel out your incoherent response. But I assume you’re a recipient of Republican talking points, so it probably was just a quick cut and paste job.
Well done.
Barry Scary,
So you are a victim of your own prejudice.
Jimbo –
I’ve read your posts for over four or so years now. There is no “pre”judice in play here. You’ve provided ample evidence to be judged as a Republican tool.
Or maybe…just maybe…are you a paid PR consultant for Diebold? What’s your contract rate?
Anyway, I’ll take your most recent post as evidence that you oppose audits of electronic voting machine software. Truth and facts be damned, eh?
Typical Tea Party posturing, I’ll say this…you don’t disappoint, you magnificent, technicolor Republican tool.
Barry Scary,
And what will this “audit” in Kansas show?
Nothing – because the election results are consistent with the demographics.
But to those with more imagination it will simply prove that they were just better at covering up their tracks.
Soooooo…we go back back, now with affirmation by you, to my original post –
“Nothing to see here, folks. So let’s just move along, now.”
But hey – just to show there’s no hard feelings, Jimbo, you sparkly, glittering Republican tool, you, here’s something you might enjoy:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IoWJkrlptNs
Barry Scary,
Maybe Beth Clarkson will include that video with her court filing. But I don’t see how having the vote logs will show that voting machines sucked the blood out of anyone who attempted to vote for Obama.