Taegan Goddard, who has the politics blog Political Wire, here writes that in 2016, the Republican presidential primaries may not determine the eventual nominee, and that the delegates to the convention might make the decision.
Taegan Goddard, who has the politics blog Political Wire, here writes that in 2016, the Republican presidential primaries may not determine the eventual nominee, and that the delegates to the convention might make the decision.
Which make the rules about seating delegates all the more relevant than it was when it was just about trying not to recognize the Ron Paul delegates.
Insiders will have their thumbs on the scale, if they can get away with it.
Still, it’s so very early in the process that talk of “brokered conventions” is mostly just fantasies.
Every time there’s a presidential election, someone says that it might not get decided until the convention. Yet that never actually winds up happening any more.
While it would make a great opportunity for journalists and pundits, it’s not going to happen in 2016. We will know who the Republican nominee will be before the convention starts.
As Taegan says, 2016 is different than past presidential election years, because no one is at 20% yet in the Republican voter polls, and because there are so many candidates with good qualifications, and because now we have super-PACS that are run by people who are committed to particular presidential candidates and that can keep spendiong money well into primary season, keeping more candidates alive.
States should bypass the conventions and directly nominate presidential candidates.
Didn’t the GOP go back to winner-take-all primaries in some states, like delegate-rich Florida? That would enable whoever got a plurality to get the entire state’s delegates, even if the candidate got, say, 33% of the vote, as long as it was more than anyone else. This element was missing from the analysis, since in recent years, delegates were divided more proportionally.
http://www.clickorlando.com/news/floridas-republican-primary-is-winnertakeall-contest/33069496