On March 24, Monmouth University Polls released a general election poll which includes Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, and Gary Johnson. The results: Clinton 42%, Donald Trump 34%, Gary Johnson 11%, other or undecided 13%.
The poll also asked respondents to choose among just Clinton and Trump, and those results were: Clinton 48%, Trump 38%, other or undecided 14%. This result shows that when Libertarians are on the ballot, they draw substantially from both major parties, although somewhat more from Democrats. The poll also says that Johnson’s best percentages were in Republican-leaning states.
The most significant aspect of this poll is that Johnson was included. If other leading polling companies follow Monmouth’s lead, it is not implausible that Johnson (assuming he becomes the Libertarian Party’s nominee) may reach 15% in future polls and qualify for the Commission on Presidential Debates events. Thanks to Independent Political Report for the link and thanks to Cody Quirk for pushing me to blog this.
I’ve seen this movie before. I’ll bet even money that the LP candidate for President doesn’t break 1% once again. Nothing will crack the monopoly the DemGOPs have on elections in the USA until IRV/RCV is widely adopted. Is there any news on Maine?
The Maine Libertarian ballot access case has a hearing March 31, Thursday.
This poll is being featured on a wide variety of high profile news sources today and was yesterday as well. I would not be surprised if Gary Johnson is included in significantly more polls this year then he was in 2012
I expect they’re focusing on Johnson more than likely Green nominee Jill Stein because the conventional wisdom is that the R nomination is sewn up but the D isn’t quite yet. Would be nice if both were included at least, and maybe any other nationwide parties such as the Constitution Party too.
Eventually they’ll probably each be in a few, to try to insulate the pollsters from charges that they’re leaving the alternatives out. (*sigh*)
This has stirred up quite the discussion over at IPR but it overlooks the obvious. The prospect of Hillary Rodham Clinton versus Donald Trump is possibly the worst choice the U.S. electorate has been given in 200 years or more. ANYBODY will poll well against them at this point. When the “who do you want less” factor comes into play closer to election day, the sheeple will hold their noses and cast a vote against someone! Unfortunately, the Libertarians and Greens will not be a factor.
I hope they start including Jill Stein in polls as well; she’s bound to be polling at least in the 5-10% range in a race where Hillary Clinton is the Dem nominee, given the support she’s likely to receive from some of Bernie Sanders’supporters.
CO and/or CB, it will be a case of do you want a toothache or a head cold? A lot of people will look at Gary Johnson and the LP if that’s the case.
Richard, you say “This result shows that when Libertarians are on the ballot, they draw….somewhat more from Republicans.”
That’s incorrect! The result shows Johnson drawing more from Clinton than from Trump.
“CO and/or CB, it will be a case of do you want a toothache or a head cold? A lot of people will look at Gary Johnson and the LP if that’s the case.” – Michael
I hope you are correct but as Don Wills stated above, “I’ve seen this movie before.” BTW, Obama vs. Romney was a toothache or a head cold. Clinton vs. Trump is pancreatic cancer or massive coronary.
Richard and Arthur, one of my college professors told me it’s more location for the LP vote for president. East of the Mississippi it’s 50-50 from each. West of the Mississippi it’s 70-30 with most from the GOP.
Thanks, Art. You’re right. I just now amended the post.
In its discussion of the poll results, Monmouth states that Johnson may have acted as a placeholder for supporters of other candidates, the implication being that had they included Jill Stein she would have gotten some of that 11%. I think this is very plausible since Johnson appears to be taking more from Hillary than Trump. I doubt that any third party will get double digits thus year but the Libertarians and Greens could get a couple of percent each. Hopefully enough for people to start paying more attention.
If more polling organizations include third party candidates there is a good chance that one of them will break the 15% threshold set by the Commission on Presidential Debates to be included in the debates. If that happens then I think there is a very good chance that they might actually obtain some electoral votes in the general election.
How many TRILLIONS will the Communist Donkeys / fascist Elephants give to any Libertarian /Green Prez candidate — to DIVIDE and CONQUER ???
See 1992 with the delusional MORON Perot.
The TOTAL ROT is due to the SCOTUS robot party hacks making the USA Prez into a god, king, emperor, tyrant — allegedly having all sorts of legislative powers to rule by decree —
executive orders
executive agreements with foreign regimes
the entire administrative law stuff.
i.e. for clueless morons — the Congress is almost DEAD.
See the death of the Roman Republic due to Julius and Augustus Caesar.