Carson Bruno, Research Fellow for the Hoover Institution, has this analysis of the June 2016 California primary. No incumbent for any partisan office was defeated in that primary, and it is plausible that no incumbent will lose in November either. Bruno also asks, “Is (the U.S. Senate outcome) the straw that breaks the camel’s back for Proposition 14?” Proposition 14 is the June 2010 ballot measure that installed the top-two system. Bruno also says that if top-two continues to exist, Republicans will need to find a way to prevent more than two Republicans running for statewide offices in future primaries. Of course, for the party apparatus to control who runs means that the original purpose of partisan primaries is diminished.
Top two would be viable if they also used party primaries, then a top two election, much like they do in France. They use a top two, but only one individual from each party can partake in each election.
P.R. and nonpartisan App.V.
How about a nonpartisan USA Senate ??? Fat Chance.
France does not use top-two. “Top-two”, by definition, cuts the link between party nominees and party ballot labels. In France, when a candidate appears on a ballot with a party label, that party has nominated that candidate.
It’s effectively a top two system though. They have an all out election where all parties are included. And then a week later they have the top two vote getting parties from the first election in a run off election. That’s why I call it top two, it’s takes the top two vote getting parties into a run off election a week later. It just differs in the fact that the U.S. version is an open primary that permits any number of candidates from any party in the first election. France limits it to one candidate per party.
So what I’m getting at is simply having closed party primaries to select the nominee and then go into the French version of a top two election, would solve the issue of only two individuals from the same party being in the run-off/general election, like what happened with the Senate race.
Actually, in France they do have two elections a week apart. But the second election is not restricted to the top two candidates. The second election gives parties a chance to make coalitions, with some candidates dropping out and supporting other, similar candidates. But no candidate is required to drop out before the second election.
The irony of Proposition 14 is that people voted for it to keep party leaders from determining who gets to run. Now, the pressure is on party leaders to pick a candidate who can make it past the all party primary. Over time party leaders will have much more power than voters if top two continues. Restoring party primaries is the only way to restore voter control over the elections.
Gene Berkman, Interesting… I’ve just only seen two parties go in to the second election; so I assumed that it was a top-two vote-getter scheme.
Bruno’s analysis is superficial in that it assumes that Republican share of turnout in the primary is higher than in the general election. While that would be true for a typical election year, in this election 68% of presidential votes were cast in the Democratic Primary vs. 31% in the Republican Primary.
I do not understand why Richard Winger thinks it significant that no incumbents were defeated. Incumbents were elected by much the same electorate, two or four years earlier, and they likely have scared off any intraparty challengers, plus likely have a big funding advantage. It is as if Winger thinks that it is more like a dice roll, where the next roll of the dice is independent of the previous.
In any event, it is almost certain that Raul Bocanegra will defeat incumbent Patty Lopez in AD-39; and it is 50-50 whether Ro Khanna will defeat 8-term incumbent Mike Honda in CA-17.
There is nothing under Top 2 that prevents parties from conducting a process to determine “their” candidate. Of course what the parties will want is to have its will enforced by the State.
In effect, the Democratic Party would order the SOS to rip up any application from Loretta Sanchez, etc.
Dear SOS Alex Padilla,
We own this State, and we own the ballot. Do not let any Democrat other than Kamala Harris appear on that ballot.
Best Regards,
John Burton, Democratic Party State Boss
A.H.., another reason France does not have top-two is that in France, if a presidential candidate gets over 50% in the first round, he or she is elected. In other words, the first round IS an election (an “election” is an event at which someone can get elected). In the top-two states of California and Washington, for congress and partisan state office, no one is ever elected in the first round, even if they get 100% of the vote.
Charles DeGaulle got over 50% when he ran for president, in the first round, so there was no run-off.
Gotcha… Thanks for clearing that up for me. One question though, the Louisiana system is different, correct? Because it’s a run-off not an open primary. So there a candidate that gets over 50% on the first ballot is elected, and there is no run-off/top-two kind of thing.