In the 2016 election, only Hillary Clinton, Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, and Donald Trump, will be on ballot in states containing a majority of the electoral college. This is the same number as in 2012.
Rocky De La Fuente is likely to be on the ballot in between 23 and 28 states. But even if he gets all 28, they only have 250 electoral college votes, and a majority is 270.
Darrell Castile is likely to be on the ballot in 25 states, which have 211 electoral college votes. If he can re-validate 39 more signatures in Tennessee, then he would have 26 states with 222 electoral votes.
If De La Fuente wins the lawsuits in Pennsylvania and Georgia, where does that put his ceiling?
Compared to just about every other advanced/wealthy country, our elections are pathetically undemocratic. The UK has six candidates in their national debates a year or so ago. Canada’s recently had four or five. And both these countries also use winner-take-all elections.
He can’t rise above 28 states even if he wins all his lawsuits. However, when I say that, I am not counting his California, North Carolina, and Oklahoma lawsuits, because they haven’t moved fast enough for injunctive relief. But all three are strong for declaratory relief next year.
What? McMullin isn’t on all 50 ballots? But that’s what his supporters insisted!
I disagree, I think with the remaining states and lawsuits, Rocky could still hit 270 but by a close margin, what states are you counting Richard?
What are the chances of Castle getting on the Tennessee ballot?
How do the various parties compare in their ballot access with 2012?
For example, wikipedia says Goode was on in 26 states, but not how many electoral votes those states had.
Will the Constitution Party give up on Tennessee? Their map shows “write-in pending” in the Volunteer State:
http://castle2016.com/cp-updates-ballot-access-page/
Attention Junior High math folks —
Clinton or Trump WILL BE elected by about 28-30 percent of ALL Voters in about 30 States/DC —
due to the EVIL rotted minority rule gerrymander Electoral College math.
Same rotted math since 1832 due to Prez Jackson.
The EVIL rotted Elephants LOVED the rotten system that caused Lincoln to get elected in 1860 — with about 750,000 DEAD folks in 1861-1865.
The ROT continues. Civil WAR II coming on Election day 2016 – due to a power MAD MONSTER from Hell extremist about to be elected ??? Stay tuned.
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P.R. and nonpartisan App.V.
Demo Rep… please either stop posting or open a damn civics book already. You’re insistence to post your ignorance is making this site unreadable.
I have a couple of questions about Castle. First, I double checked and 211 is his current total, if you are counting only states where his name will appear on the ballot. However, I count only 24 states: AK, AR, CO, FL, HI, ID, IA, LA, MI, MN, MO, MS, NV, NJ, NM, OR, PA, SC, SD, UT, WA, WV, WI, and WY. Wikipaedia is showing him also with write in access in AL, IN, and TX. Those three states total 58 electoral votes. That’s a total of 269. I assume he is trying to re-validate TN, and I wonder if he is contesting all the signatures in OH that were thrown out (if that is possible).
I’m guessing that ballot access is still possible in AZ, KY, ND, and RI. Those states would total 26 EVs. So, if he gets all four of those, his actual ballot access is 237, and ballot plus write in access would be 295. If he is successful in TN, then those numbers rise to 248 and 306, respectively.
Any word on where he stands in CT and NH?
Uh, he won’t be on in AZ unless he’s going to be turning in over 30,000+ signatures there on the 30th, and I doubt he has millions of dollars and a whole army of petition gatherers working around the clock in Arizona.
Oregon isn’t a guarantee since that state CP is not a affiliate of the national CP, nor are they on good terms with the national and haven’t ran a presidential candidate of the national CP since they disaffiliated, so they shouldn’t be included in the state totals here.
Tennessee might be still possible, but not Ohio. I also heard that the chances are slim right now at making it on in KY; his chances are better with RI, even though there isn’t much of a CP presence in that state. Connecticut and likewise NH are impossible since both states do not have a strong state CP there or the resources that they had in Pennsylvania and other states, and their signature requirements are a bit too high.
Tom P, you should have included North Dakota and Rhode Island. I was not giving Castle Oregon.
Demo Rep there will be no Civil War II on election day. That is just a paranoid delusion. Clinton or Trump will be elected and it will be business as usual. No catastrophe. Hopefully the minor parties will attract more votes and elect more people. That is exactly the way the Founding Fathers intended the United States electoral system to work.
“Connecticut and likewise NH are impossible since both states do not have a strong state CP there or the resources that they had in Pennsylvania and other states, and their signature requirements are a bit too high.”
And because their signature gathering deadlines passed nearly three weeks ago.
I guess accurate information about Castle is hard to come by. Wikipaedia wasn’t showing RI or ND for Castle. However, his own website has other, different inaccuracies.
Even if “only four” candidates will be on the presidential ballot in enough states in 2016 exceeding 270 electoral votes, this year’s American presidential election is looking up to NOT be a one-on-one contest. It’s NOT simply Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump. Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Jill Stein will both poll A LOT MORE popular votes this year than they both did in 2012. It’s going to be a 4-way battle for the White House.
This could really be a down-ballot election year. I think many voters will vote for congressional, state, and local elections and bypass the presidential election. This is not a year to stay home. Staying home is like yelling at the wall.
The root problem with Darrell Castle’s campaign is that he knew he was going to be running a year and a half ago and had the opportunity to announce at the spring 2015 CP national meeting in Pittsburgh (which I attended). This was before his medical condition arose. Scott Copeland announced at that time and gave a good speech, but he was unknown. Immediately after that, Castle was in Utah quietly “campaigning” with party insiders and talking with his future running mate, Scott Bradley. But without a known prospective nominee for the party, CP activists across the country had no real motivation to conduct ballot access. In January of this year, Mr. Castle announced that he would NOT be running, further dampening petition incentives, and was only drafted into the nomination the day before the CP’s nominating convention. The results here are thus completely predictable.
Jeff Becker, which is unfortunate for the CP, because from my discussions with their national chair, it sounded like they were trying to get an early start on ballot access. I’ve been trying to contact both the CP and the Castle campaign to get them to be co-plaintiffs with us Greens on some ballot access lawsuits, but they never got back to me.
CP seems to be falling apart. 2008 was a peek year for them with Baldwin then the last 2 cycles they can’t even get 270. I imagine Goode alienated a lot of long time activist 4 years and that did damage?
Castle was 39 signatures short in Tennessee and he’s trying to get those approved. (Paragraph) JamesT is right. There’s been division,and infighting since 2008. Plus the loss of the AIP in California.
DempRep–there will not be a Civil War II after Election Day. Just a lot of people of one side or the other making plans to move to Canada and Ireland.
De La Fuente and Castle are both already over 135 EC votes, right? (As I’ve said elsewhere, that’s enough to guarantee third place — and, if nobody has a majority, it’s enough to guarantee a spot in the House “run-off”.) How close to that semi-magic figure is McMullin?
I have McMullin with 7 states and 49 EC votes. To get to the house run-off they have to win states and the only one that can do that is the Libertarian Party and Gary Johnson.
I hope the CP can get their act back together. They seem to only be marginally active in some of the states they have ballot access.
In New England in 1992 the CP got on the ballot in 5 out of 6 states and just missed NH. Now it looks like Rhode Island may be the only state where they get on the ballot.
Some of the pre-school folks on this list might try and look at what happened in 1773-1775 -Result – American Revolutionary WAR and 1859-1861 – Result – Civil WAR I.
The current ROT has been building up since 1865 or perhaps 1933.
ANTI-Democracy gerrymander oligarchs in control in the gerrymander Congress and all 50 State legislatures — with their nonstop special interest gangster laws.
The 2 major wannabeee tyrant control freak candidates for the Donkeys/Elephants.
The Stone Age brain dead media regarding the minority rule gerrymander math in the Electoral College.
ALL coming together in 1 giant evil mess.
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P.R. and nonpartisan App.V.
@Michael — thanks re: McMullin status.
As for winning EC votes — well, there are still Maine and Nebraska. And maybe the Mal-Apportionment Penalty discussed here:
http://asagordon.byethost10.com/