Virtually every day, there are interesting presidential polls, and BAN does not usually cover them. However, a poll released on September 2 by WMUR Granite State Poll is noteworthy. It shows that 27% of New Hampshire voters age 18-34 support either Gary Johnson or Jill Stein.
It also shows that New Hampshire self-identified independent voters are giving a plurality of their votes to Gary Johnson. Johnson receives 37% of independents, whereas Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton each have 24% support.
The state results as a whole are: Clinton 43%; Trump 32%; Johnson 12%; Stein 4%; someone else 3%; undecided 5%. Thanks to Political Wire for the link.
A Fox News Poll released September 1 shows that 24% of voters under age 35 support either Jill Stein or Gary Johnson. See page thirteen, question 2.
Do NOT vote for E-V-I-L — lesser or greater of 2.
Fox News/Anderson Robbins Research/Shaw & Company Research is a reliable poll, but the WMUR Granite State Poll is not; it is not one of the hundreds of polls given ratings by FiveThirtyEight at http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/ so its polls are definitely not newsworthy and should not be quoted without caveat by responsible journalists.
trump notary project
Unfortunately, the age bracket of those most likely to vote for a 3rd party candidate is also the age bracket least likely to show up on election day
In reply to Grayson’s comment, Nate Silver/538 barely takes into account Jill Stein at all (they don’t mention her), even though she has polled as high as 7% nationally and still occasionally hits 5% in the polls, and she’s now on 42 state ballots. They appear to predict her getting less than 2% of the vote in IL which, given the recent budget crisis and the fact that Illinois is generally considered a “safe state” by spoiler theorists, is likely rather underestimating her support. I think 538 itself should be taken with a grain of salt.
After looking through some more of 538’s data, they are definitely underestimating Jill’s support. They have her getting about 1.5% in NY, even though she’s been polling 4-6% there, and even though Howie Hawkins just got nearly 5% of the vote for governor in 2014.
Johnson gets 40% support among likely voters “still trying to decide”, 17% among those “leaning toward a candidate”, and 7% among those definitely decided.
There were 116 respondents who identified as “independent”, only 64 said they were likely to vote (55%). The 37% Johnson supporters were in this small group. Self-identifying Republicans and Democrats were 86% and 87% likely to vote.
Dream on. I stand by my predictions of Johnson in the 1%-2% range, and all the rest under 1%. Polling done 10 weeks ahead of voting without taking into consideration the likelihood of voting is meaningless.
There are a multitude of Berniecrats down ballot going through the primaries in New Hampshire on 9/13. Not surprising that a large segment of the population broke for Stein and Johnson.
If Johnson gets 1% or 2% you will have pretty good circumstantial evidence of fraud.