On October 19, Emerson College Polls put out new presidential polls in four states, including Utah. See the results here. For Utah, the results are: Evan McMullin 31%; Donald Trump 27%; Hillary Clinton 24%; Gary Johnson 5%; other 1%; undecided 12%.
The expected large Utah vote for McMullin will not create an ongoing new party in Utah, because McMullin qualified as an independent candidate. If McMullin had qualified as the nominee of the Better for America Party, then that party would have surely polled over 2%, and been a qualified party in Utah for 2018 and 2020.
WTF is happening? The third party candidate with the best chances of winning (according to 538) is someone who has acces to 84 EVs? This truly is the year of the underdog. Case in point: NCAA tournament, Coastal Carolina, Cleveland Cavaliers, Chicago Cubs, Minnesota Vikings, Donald ****ing Trump, Bernie Sanders, Evan McMullin and now Martin Babinec.
Would be interesting to see an Idaho poll. Utah is nearly 70% Mormon, but Idaho is second in the country with about 27% of the population.
McMullin could wind up in double digits there.
I wonder if he’ll threaten for fourth place in the popular vote?
Winning Utah is probably 300k-400k votes alone. If he has decent performances in some of the other 10 states he’s on the ballot, he could double that total.
Probably not Austin. In order to get fourth place he’d have to get more votes than Jill Stein, who has four times the ballot access he does and is polling 4-5% in some big states like CA, PA, and NY. I do think he’ll get fifth though. What will be remarkable about McMullin at this rate is that he’ll be the first non-Democrat/Republican candidate to get electoral votes in about fifty years. And for that, despite his CIA/Establishment origins, I salute him.
Yep, it seems that about the only thing powerful enough to break through the spoiler theory blockade is the concentrated religious vote in Utah. Maybe we Greens should find a left-wing Mormon and run him/her for president, lol
Jill Stein has six times the ballot status that McMullen does. She is on the ballot in front of 89.4% of the voters, and McMullin is on before 15.7% of the voters. On the other hand, McMullin might do very well with write-in votes. All of the large states permit write-ins for McMullin except Florida and North Carolina. Those two states permit write-ins but the filing deadline for write-ins is so early, he missed them. He should sue those states to at least get his write-ins counted, but for some reason he won’t sue any state over election law.
I really hope McMullin wins Utah and Gary Johnson wins New Mexico. I realize this is a really long shot, but boy would it make for an interesting Election night.
Johnson and Stein have both run far better races this year than they did in 2012, and I would hope and assume both will build on their previous showings.
Having said that, it’s not totally outside the realm of possibility.
McMullin wins Utah with 40% — 400,000 votes. Plus, he wins around 10% in Idaho for 60,000 votes.
In the other 9 states he’s on the ballot give him 150,000 votes and maybe write-in votes could add another 20,000.
That alone would put him in the ballpark of 630,000 votes, or maybe 0.5% of the national vote. That’s 160k more than Stein won nationally in 2012.
I don’t expect him to beat her, but it could be close. If I had to guess right now, I would think Stein will wind up at or close to the 1 million vote mark.
Karl,
Agreed, it would be cool. But seems highly unlikely based on polling. Most important thing would be for Johnson to top 5% nationally, a very difficult but not impossible task.
He’d need 6.5 million or so votes… maybe 7 million.
The Donkey HACKS will be very happy to keep electing Prezs with 45 or less percent of the votes FOREVER — i.e. the folks who get ALL or most of their income from the TAX SLAVES.
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P.R. and nonpartisan App.V.
I hope Evan McMullen wins Utah, but on the other hand I hope Mike Maturen of the American Solidarity Party beats McMullen in write-in votes for the states that count those. It seems McMullen and Maturen are competing for a lot of the same voters.
Count me out when it comes to cheering for McMullin. He’s not running to help third parties; he’s running to dilute third party support and to blunt their momentum. As Richard pointed out in a different post, while he promised to sue states regarding their ballot access laws, so far, no suit has been filed. Meanwhile, he is benefitting from the past efforts of others.
His victory idea of deadlocking the electoral college but getting House consideration, despite having fewer votes than any candidate that can be considered in the vast majority of America, is something that I find troubling and deeply offensive.
If McMullin-Finn team garners any electoral votes it will certainly be the first time (and last?) a Mormon-Jewish ticket does so.
I completely agree with TomP. McMullin’s candidacy is nothing more than a Romney temper tantrum. If McMullin’s electoral votes does throw the election into the House, then if the House doesn’t elect Trump the result will likely be the end of the GOP, if not the entire concept of the USA as a republic. My suspicion is that Romney would rather see the GOP die than Trump become President. Romney truly is a petty human being. And yea Trump’s a narcissist egotistical prick.
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.” — H. L. Mencken
I like to see Gary Johnson win New Mexico and North Dakota his place of birth.Many Johnsons in North Dakota.Maybe he could do real well in South Dakota to .
I was looking at a photo of Evan Mcmullin he looked like the character on one of the old albums by the old rock n roll band Spirit .Maybe it was their first album .
@Joshua H,
The Udall’s are/were Mormon.
If McMullin wins via the House, look for an anendment to end the Electoral College by mid January. Once it gets to state level, it’ll pass in the required 37 states.