Oregon Representative Alissa Keny-Guyer, a Democrat, will introduced the National Popular Vote Plan bill next year. Oregon is one of the few states with Democratic control of state government that has not yet passed the plan. See this story.
Also, Ohio Representative David Leland will introduce the bill in his state next year. See this story. Leland is a Democrat and the Ohio legislature has a Republican majority.
I predict Oregon will pass it; Ohio won’t. I cannot imagine a single swing state that will easily surrender its power. I think runoff voting, either instant or actual, has a better chance in Ohio.
In fact, if Ohio were to pass Instant Runoff Voting it would have even more power over the states that are in the NPV Compact because after votes are transferred, the winner in a IRV state will have a higher final total.
Ohio has the initiative process, so supporters of the National Popular Vote Plan have a chance to pass it in states even where the legislature won’t pass it. The US Supreme Court opinion Arizona State Legislature v Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission (2015) settled this issue. The initiative counts as a “legislature” for purposes of amending election laws that affect federal office.
23 states have the initiative (and that doesn’t count the phony Illinois initiative process), so if big money can pay to put initiative petitions on the ballot in 2018, the voters might end up pushing the National Popular Vote Plan into enough states for it to take effect.
Is it clear that the wording of the NPV plan permits final-round within-state IRV totals to be used for the purposes of calculating the national vote totals? I assume you mean IRV reducing to two instead of, say, one. That’s an interesting point re: incentives though.
NO uniform definition in the NPV scheme from Hell.
—
REAL Democracy State regimes should be demanding an Art. V const. convention to END the various minority rule gerrymander systems in the USA. — or simply declare independence from the OLIGARCHY minority rule gerrymander regimes.
The leftwing/rightwing stuff in the USA is INTOLERABLE — See the INTOLERABLE Brit laws in 1773-1775.
P.R. and nonpartisan App.V.
This is a terrible idea. it effectively neuters the EC adn turns the election into a popular vote election.
Right now, Clinton’s lead in California is more than her lead nationally. Would we want one state choosing the president for the other 49?
And suppose we had a popular vote margin of, say, under 100,000 nationally. Would we want Florida 2000 on a national scale?
The Framers knew what they were doing. Remember, we’re a union of sovereign states.
I’m not sure an initiative on NPV would be constitutionally permissible, as the Constitution says that the electors shall be chosen “in the manner that the legislature thereof shall prescribe.” The legislature, not the populace.
Tim, the US Supreme Court ruled last year that the initiative process for a state counts as the “legislature” for changes in election laws affecting federal elections. Arizona State Legislature v Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission, case number 13-1314.
Tim… yes, we want one “state” determining that outcome of an election. Ever heard of “one person, one vote”? The PEOPLE determine the president, not the states; thus state boundaries are meaningless.
Each State is an artificial AREA carved out of a map of Mother Earth.
Are ALL Electors-Voters in the USA getting EQUAL protection by each robot party HACK Prez ???
See the FASCIST stunt stuff by Trump in the Carrier biz event.
–
Abolish the EVIL rotted Electoral College.
P.R. and nonpartisan App.V.
WIll not happen Electoral College will remain
“The Framers knew what they were doing.”
Slavery.
Move to the 21st century, today we don’t need landed gentry or political gerrymandering to controlthe will of the public popular vote.