On February 15, William Weld said he has launched an exploratory committee for a race for the Republican presidential nomination in 2020.
On February 15, William Weld said he has launched an exploratory committee for a race for the Republican presidential nomination in 2020.
I have a feeling he’s going to try to go the same route Gary Johnson did in 2012. Start out running as a Republican to gain media attention and when that inevitably fails (there’s no way the GOP will allow a real challenge to Trump) he’ll go back to the Libertarians to run and hopefully bring some disaffected GOP voters with him
How many of his fellow members of the Council on Foreign Relations will send him money?
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Golly geez… Weld is a real life Don Quixote!
Libertarians need to nominate the McAfee/Supreme ticket. Toots and the boot.
I would be worried now if I were Trump. Even if Weld doesn’t do all that well in the primaries, history shows that incumbent presidents that face serious challengers in the primaries go on to lose in the general election. It happened to Jimmy Carter with Ted Kennedy and to George H. W. Bush with Pat Buchanan.
“I have a feeling he’s going to try to go the same route Gary Johnson did in 2012. Start out running as a Republican to gain media attention and when that inevitably fails (there’s no way the GOP will allow a real challenge to Trump) he’ll go back to the Libertarians to run and hopefully bring some disaffected GOP voters with him”
It’s not the same route because Johnson had not already been an LP nominee before going into Republican primaries. This will make Weld even more of a joke in Republican primaries than Johnson was (Johnson wasn’t running against a sitting Republican president; Ron Paul didn’t runs against a sitting Republican president in Republican primaries either, and his LP detour had been 20 years before his first run for the Republican presidential nomination, not up to virtually the moment he declared it).
Of course, it will (or at least should) make Weld an even bigger joke in the race for the LP nomination if and when he comes back yet again after breaking promises to Libertarians to not go back to the Republicans not once but twice. That’s too many turns through the revolving door. Add his vouching for and virtual endorsement of Hillary Clinton and we have a politician who no party should trust ever again in any way shape or form. The Republicans won’t and hopefully Libertarians will finally draw the line as well.
” history shows that incumbent presidents that face serious challengers in the primaries go on to lose in the general election”
Weld will not be a serious challenger. He won’t get to debate and probably won’t qualify for many primary ballots, and some of the state primaries are actually already being cancelled. There are hundreds of people filed to run in the primary. There’s no reason anyone will or should take Weld joining them seriously.
“Libertarians need to nominate the McAfee/Supreme ticket. ”
No thanks on McAfee but Vermin would be interesting.
“Ron Paul didn’t runs against a sitting Republican president in Republican primaries” – this is one thing that bothered me about Ron Paul and his son Rand. When pushed he toed the party line. Running against a sitting president will get way more media coverage than running in an open year when the field of serious contenders is a couple dozen.
You misunderstand how media coverage works. The media generally cover candidates they think have some kind of chance to win a primary or general election. Only a small number of stories are devoted to candidates who are seen as extreme long shots. Weld would be considered to say the very least an extreme long shot to get the Republican nomination, thus few outlets will see much reason to cover him to any significant extent. He’ll probably get the bulk of his airtime on MSNBC. In fact, an on air slot with them may be the real purpose of his campaign. @ Brandon Lyon
35 or less percent of popular/voter votes for Prez winner in Nov 2020 ???
Stay tuned.
How DEAD is the USA Const ??? — due to the Cover-my-ASS MORONS in the Congress and SCOTUS LOVING to have a TYRANT LAWLESS PREZ in *crisis* times ???
—
PR and AppV
TOTAL SOP
Demo Rep for got take his brain back to the laundromat for drying. Weld is exploring running in the Republican primary, which has nothing to do with “35 or less percent of popular/voter votes for Prez winner in Nov 2020” one way or the other.
The early primary in California will make or break Weld.
LOL. He isn’t even going to be a blip on the radar. Most likely he will conclude his exploratory phase by making that determination before he starts invoking sore loser laws (now once again being applied to presidential candidates since 2012) and having to sign pledges of loyalty to the eventual nominee to even be allowed into Republican primaries, so it doesn’t preclude him from an independent run or a stab at the LP nomination or both. The second most likely possibility is that he will switch just after the NH primary, making the determination that his Republican effort is getting nowhere at all.
Just to be clear though, he isn’t going to be a factor as an LP or independent candidate either. He really ought to just retire from presidential politics. There’s no future in it for him, unless it’s a stepping stone to some kind of media/book/speaking gig.
How many stunt EGO CANDIDATES will be creating new EGO parties — to cause that 35 percent winner in 2020 ???
See the rot in the Roman Republic in 120 BC – 27 BC — personality cults of killers.
William T. Forrest “You misunderstand how media coverage works. The media generally cover candidates they think have some kind of chance to win a primary or general election.”
Not quite. The media cover candidates that they think their viewers will be interested in. Usually, that means the leading candidates. But not always.
Perhaps we will see a real delegate convention with multiple rounds of balloting from one of the parties in 2020… with smokey backroom deals and all. Old time politicks.
A lot of people think that Weld is motivated by ego. I don’t think so. He is smart enough to know that he is a long shot, at best. In his own mind, he feels the need to make some sort of statement. Whether it will have an impact remains to be seen.
JB- Old time politicks = what has brought the USA to the pending Civil WAR II —
Wannabee tyrant monarch candidates and their robot cult supporters. See Hitler in 1929-1933.
NO caucuses, primaries and conventions.
PR and AppV – pending Condorcet.
I can see a way for the LP to benefit from this. If Weld manages to get a lot of exposure from tilting at Trump’s windmill and then comes back to the LP to endorse another candidate (Larry Sharpe?) that might bring more exposure for the LP candidate. Sore loser law can’t stop him from endorsing an LP candidate.
June – the LP can benefit from it even if Weld doesn’t come back. All Weld has to do is conduct himself well and appeal to voters. Even if Weld doesn’t, every news outlet that covers him is going to mention his connection to the Libertarian Party. Both shows I saw last night did. When Weld’s campaign ends, there’s a good chance many of them will remember that.
“Not quite. The media cover candidates that they think their viewers will be interested in. Usually, that means the leading candidates. But not always.”
Correct, and that’s what I said. Candidates who are long shots do get some coverage, but less and less as they become perceived as increasingly unlikely to have a legitimate chance at winning. Some points are added for oddity e.g. Vermin Supreme, and a candidate who is good at seeking coverage (ie asking for it), good at responding to offers of coverage, and not boring when they do get covered will do better than their chances of winning may indicate at getting covered. Reporters are generally fairly lazy, ratings driven, and apt to look at the elections as a horse race. Those are the rules and they indicate Weld will not get much coverage or traction.
“Perhaps we will see a real delegate convention with multiple rounds of balloting from one of the parties in 2020… with smokey backroom deals and all. Old time politicks.”
Unlikely, but possible the Democrats may go that way. Republicans won’t unless Agent Orange is actually impeached and removed. Much as I would love to see that happen I rate it as highly unlikely at this point. Even if it were to happen an old fashioned multi ballot convention would still be unlikely on their side.
“A lot of people think that Weld is motivated by ego. I don’t think so. He is smart enough to know that he is a long shot, at best.”
I agree with the last part. I do think ego is a big part of his motivation though. He is angling for speaking gigs, media and book deals. Basically being paid to hobnob and opine.
“In his own mind, he feels the need to make some sort of statement. Whether it will have an impact remains to be seen.”
It will have very little impact and he is almost certainly smart enough to know that as well.
“I can see a way for the LP to benefit from this. If Weld manages to get a lot of exposure from tilting at Trump’s windmill and then comes back to the LP to endorse another candidate (Larry Sharpe?) that might bring more exposure for the LP candidate. Sore loser law can’t stop him from endorsing an LP candidate.”
Endorsements have very limited value especially from a serial party hopper who has dropped out of races and elected positions repeatedly. And that’s if he actually got enough exposure for his endorsement to be noteworthy at all. That most likely won’t happen. And if his main motivation is stopping or hurting Trump, he’s likely to vouch for or endorse the Democratic nominee as the election gets closer anyway. At best his endorsement of the LP candidate, if he were to make one, would be a brief story that would be quickly forgotten. The news business caters to short attention spans these days. “Also ran endorses minor party candidate” is a non-story. Sorry to say.
“every news outlet that covers him is going to mention his connection to the Libertarian Party. ”
That doesn’t benefit the LP, even if true.
Good riddance to fake “Libertarian” slimeball, Bill Weld. It is really disgraceful that anyone in the LP ever took this obvious ruling establishment Deep State shill seriously. Bill Weld is a known liar, and he was never any kind of libertarian, other than a fake one.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Weld
born in 1945 – just before 2 A-bombs and VJ Day.
Weld defecting actually helps the LP. I said all along he was a fraud.
The idea that Bill Weld won’t even be a “blip on the radar” is false. His announcement on Friday generated coverage greater than any of the leading Democrat contenders for that day. So the blip has already been accomplished. If he is the only candidate with any kind of a resume, and he does have a significant resume of winning election as Governor of Massachusetts twice and as the second half of the most successful alternative party presidential ticket since ’96, then he becomes the candidate of the anti-Trumpers within the GOP. That is no small constituency. Both stylistically and ideologically he greatly contrasts with Trump and can be very competitive in states where Trump is not popular such as several in New England. If Trump’s investigation problems continue or the negative effects of his tariffs begin to be perceived or if he starts to lose any significant amount of his base for any reason then Weld will benefit.
Weld just needs 10% to win delegates in New Hampshire. He can get beat two-to-one there and still look successful challenging a sitting president. He can win delegates in Nevada with a single-digit percentage. He can probably win Massachusetts outright.
Weld has the opportunity to do to Trump something similar to what Bernie Sanders, who had no business being considered a legitimate presidential candidate, did to Hillary Clinton. Weld’s problem is that he will be overshadowed if somebody else comes along and steals his thunder, like a Jeff Flake or John Kasich. I don’t care for Weld but at this point there’s not anyone else that I would care to see as the main GOP primary challenger.
Good analysis, Chris. Thank you.