Oregon Governor Signs National Popular Vote Plan Bill — 3 Comments
Getting a USA Prez AIN’T a trivial/minor inter-State matter.
TOTAL subversion of 14 Amdt, Secs 1 and 2 —
Having votes OUTSIDE A State determine results INSIDE A State.
This has no chance of being passed in any Republican-dominated state legislature, which means it will never get to the goal.
Well no, it does not mean that. For one thing, most Republican voters are for it, unlike most Republican politicians. Not as overwhelmingly as a Democrats, but still. Politicians may have to eventually respond to the wishes of voters, especially when you consider that in most states Republican voters alone are not enough to win a majority of the legislature, so they have to appeal to at least some Democrats and Independents and others in at least some districts to get and keep a majority in a legislature in at least some states.
For another, it is not assured that Republicans will maintain control of enough state legislatures and/or governorships to block implementation in states with 270 electoral votes.
More importantly, Republicans may actually become more for it than Democrats if the popular/electoral vote discrepancy ever works against them. It worked in their favor in 2000 and 2016, but almost worked against them in 2004…not quite, but almost. A shift big enough to give Kerry Ohio would have still left him well short of Bush’s national popular vote. What if what almost happened in 2004 actually does happen in 2020, or 2024, or 2028? Whenever it happens Republicans will probably embrace NPV. At that point Democrats may change their minds and rescind it in some states, but they may not be able to do it fast enough before Republicans add enough states for implementation, and if any states passed while having Democratic majorities but then switch to having Republican majorities by the time such a switch in support happens they won’t be in a position to rescind in some places.
Even more importantly still, it can be passed through state initiatives in a good number of states including some controlled by Republican legislators and governors. Not every state has that process but about half do. Some of them already have NPV but some don’t. Opinion polls show majority support in *every* state. If anything is surprising it’s that such an effort is not already underway.
Getting a USA Prez AIN’T a trivial/minor inter-State matter.
TOTAL subversion of 14 Amdt, Secs 1 and 2 —
Having votes OUTSIDE A State determine results INSIDE A State.
This has no chance of being passed in any Republican-dominated state legislature, which means it will never get to the goal.
Well no, it does not mean that. For one thing, most Republican voters are for it, unlike most Republican politicians. Not as overwhelmingly as a Democrats, but still. Politicians may have to eventually respond to the wishes of voters, especially when you consider that in most states Republican voters alone are not enough to win a majority of the legislature, so they have to appeal to at least some Democrats and Independents and others in at least some districts to get and keep a majority in a legislature in at least some states.
For another, it is not assured that Republicans will maintain control of enough state legislatures and/or governorships to block implementation in states with 270 electoral votes.
More importantly, Republicans may actually become more for it than Democrats if the popular/electoral vote discrepancy ever works against them. It worked in their favor in 2000 and 2016, but almost worked against them in 2004…not quite, but almost. A shift big enough to give Kerry Ohio would have still left him well short of Bush’s national popular vote. What if what almost happened in 2004 actually does happen in 2020, or 2024, or 2028? Whenever it happens Republicans will probably embrace NPV. At that point Democrats may change their minds and rescind it in some states, but they may not be able to do it fast enough before Republicans add enough states for implementation, and if any states passed while having Democratic majorities but then switch to having Republican majorities by the time such a switch in support happens they won’t be in a position to rescind in some places.
Even more importantly still, it can be passed through state initiatives in a good number of states including some controlled by Republican legislators and governors. Not every state has that process but about half do. Some of them already have NPV but some don’t. Opinion polls show majority support in *every* state. If anything is surprising it’s that such an effort is not already underway.