Now that a U.S. District Court has declined to freeze Michigan’s new procedure for choosing a redistricting commission, the Secretary of State is going ahead with the process. This article says the state has already chosen 250,000 people at random, and will send an application form asking if they want to serve. Thanks to Thomas Jones for the link.
mere COST ??? — to have yet another minority rule gerrymander —
1/2 or less votes x 1/2 districts [whoever is on the G Comm] = 1/4 CONTROL = ANTI-Democracy oligarchy
—
PR in ALL legislative body elections = BOTH majority rule and minority representation
The article notes that applications must be notarized. But the SOS has provided a list of notaries that will provide free notary services for applicants. There are 250 listed for Oakland, and 215 for Wayne, down to 1 in Kewanee.
I tried to apply online, but couldn’t get past the requirement to be registered. I suppose I could get some folks in Ukraine to help me. A paper form is available online.
Unlike in California, there is no selection based on merit. In California, Justin Levitt in a presentation to the selection panel reccomended that a particular skill would be for commissioners who question advice of lawyers, and other experts. I think the SOS in Michigan will in her role as secretary for the commission attempt to lead it.
The application has a voluntary section to permit an explanation as to why you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or neither. Michigan does not have voter registration by party, and party affiliation is selected anonymously on the primary ballot. Since actual party officials, including election precinct officials, partisan officials, and partisan candidates are excluded, there may be no real way to check party affiliation. There is also a space to explain how you get along with others.
This supposedly can be used when the legislative leaders make their strikes. But the strikes are only up to 20 out of 200. If you are a Republican you would probably want to knock out sleeper agents (those who said they are “Republicans” but aren’t really). So why make any statement.
I think the SOS realized how bad the amendment was, and was trying to fix it some. But she can’t be trusted since she is an elected Democrat.
The final panel will be by random draw. The authors don’t understand how random works. Wayne County has 18% of the population. If you are sending out 250,000 applications, it is trivial to send out 45,000 (18%) to Wayne County, or cities (e.g. 2400 to Livonia, 82 to Rockwood).
The initial draw down to 200 will be stratified, so we can be pretty sure that there will 36 from the county, 14 from Detroit. 15 black, etc
Depending on an awful lot of self-selection bias, this random draw might not be so random.
But the final draw down to 13 will be subject to the vagaries of an extremely small sample size.
Doesn’t sound so random.
See uncover LYING Dems in CA who took over the CA Gerrymander Comm. in 2011-2012.
NOOOO Gerrymander Comm. needed or wanted with PR.
The ability to have a computer draw district lines optimized for equal population and compactness has been around for decades.
https://bdistricting.com/2010/MI/
PR has been around since 1820s-1840s — but likely much earlier.
BASIC PR —
Party Members = Total Members x Party Votes / Total Votes
@me,
It isn’t. There are two ways to apply. One is to directly apply. 30 Democrats, 30 Republicans, and 40 neither. Michigan doesn’t have party registration. How does anyone know whether they are Republican or Democrat? Party selection for primaries is anonymous.
In 2018, 989K voted in in the Republican gubernatorial race. Since it was an open seat and contested, we will assume that everyone who marked R, also voted for governor in the primary. 1131K voted in the Democrat gubernatorial race, and we can make the same assumption. 7K voted in the Libertarian gubernatorial race. We can assume that they are neither Democrat or Republican.
2206K voted in the primary, suggesting only 79K marked nonpartisan. So are 45% R, 51% D, and 4% Neither?
How about Nov 2016 Prez pcts ???
@DR,
“How about Nov 2016 Prez pcts???”
I thought it trivially obvious.
Voter registration is organized by election precinct. Voter rolls are alphabetized (or can be). Election precincts are organized by city and township, and numbered sequentially. To draw a 1 in 30 sample, first choose a number between 1 and 30 (what is the nearest bingo parlor to Lansing)? You discard balls numbered 31 to 75, and pick the first number between 1 and 30. In my simulation, this was an eleven.
Go to the roll for Alcona County, Alcona Township, Precinct 1, and pick the 11th name, and every 30th name thereafter, 11, 41, 71, etc. Since there are 933 registered voters, the last picked would be 911. I skip the last 22 voters in the roll, and pick the 8th voter for Alcona Township, Caledonia Township, and every 30th thereafter.
Alternatively, precinct voters might be organized by street address which night give slightly better geographic distribution.
Federal law might require use of all registered voters, rather than just active voters. And a Democrat SOS would choose that list anyway. So perhaps 218,000 of the applications will reach a voter.
I overstated the percentage of registered voters in Wayne County. The county has 18.0% of the population, but 17.4% of registered voters, and 16.9% of active voters.
“How about Nov 2016 Prez pcts ???”
NOT trivially obvious.
BUT — BASIC / ELEMENTARY / FUNDAMENTAL
— 2016 AND 2020 DATA WILL BE USED BY THE GERRYMANDER COMM HACKS [ACTING AS PUPPETS] TO RIG GERRYMANDER DISTRICTS IN 2021-2022 [ALL THE WHILE CLAIMING TO BE HA HA NONPARTISAN].
NOOOO GERRYMANDER COMMS
—
PR AND APPV AND TOTSOP
Can the commission opt to set up large, multimember districts for proportional representation?
EB — NO — standard SMD from DARK AGE 1200s.
The 2018 amdt removed [blasted out] the Uncon language in about 5 sections
– and replaced it with the Gerrymander Comm junk in 4-6
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1963 MICH Const
Art IV
§ 2 Senators, number, term.
Sec. 2. The senate shall consist of 38 members to be elected from single member districts at the same
election as the governor for four-year terms concurrent with the term of office of the governor.
[Mich Gov elected in non-prez even years – 2018, 2022 etc.]
History: Const. 1963, Art. IV, § 2, Eff. Jan. 1, 1964;¾Am. Init., approved Nov. 6, 2018, Eff. Dec. 22, 2018.
Compiler’s note: The constitutional amendment set out above was submitted to, and approved by, the electors as Proposal 18-2 at the
November 6, 2018 general election. This amendment to the Constitution of Michigan of 1963 became effective December 22, 2018.
Constitutionality: The United States Supreme Court held in Reynolds v Sims, 377 US 533; 84 S Ct 1362; 12 L Ed 2d 506 (1964) that
provisions establishing weighted land area-population formulae violate the Equal Protection Clause of the United States Constitution.
Because the apportionment provisions of former art 4, §§ 2 – 6 are interdependent and not severable, the provisions are invalidated in
their entirety and the Commission on Legislative Apportionment cannot survive. In re Apportionment of State Legislature—1982, 413
Mich 96; 321 NW2d 565 (1982), rehearing denied 413 Mich 149; 321 NW2d 585; stay denied 413 Mich 222; 321 NW2d 615, appeal
dismissed 459 US 900; 103 S Ct 201; 74 L Ed 2d 161.
Former constitution: See Const. 1908, Art. V, § 2.
§ 3 Representatives, number, term; contiguity of districts.
Sec. 3. The house of representatives shall consist of 110 members elected for two-year terms from single
member districts apportioned on a basis of population as provided in this article.
History: Const. 1963, Art. IV, § 3, Eff. Jan. 1, 1964;¾Am. Init., approved Nov. 6, 2018, Eff. Dec. 22, 2018.
Compiler’s note: The constitutional amendment set out above was submitted to, and approved by, the electors as Proposal 18-2 at the
November 6, 2018 general election. This amendment to the Constitution of Michigan of 1963 became effective December 22, 2018.
Constitutionality: The United States Supreme Court held in Reynolds v Sims, 377 US 533; 84 S Ct 1362; 12 L Ed 2d 506 (1964) that
provisions establishing weighted land area-population formulae violate the Equal Protection Clause of the United States Constitution.
Because the apportionment provisions of former art IV, §§ 2 – 6 are interdependent and not severable, the provisions are invalidated in
their entirety and the Commission on Legislative Apportionment cannot survive. In re Apportionment of State Legislature—1982, 413
Mich 96; 321 NW2d 565 (1982), rehearing denied 413 Mich 149; 321 NW2d 585; stay denied 413 Mich 222; 321 NW2d 615, appeal
dismissed 459 US 900; 103 S Ct 201; 74 L Ed 2d 161.
Former constitution: See Const. 1908, Art. V, § 3.
—
MANY gerrymander court cases in Mich after each USA Census in 1970-2010.
@DR,
Michigan should elect everyone who runs, giving each the number of legislative votes equal to the number of popular votes that they receive.
Election districts would have between 2/3 and 4/3 the ideal CVAP (i.e. quota). This range permits better conformance to county and municipality boundaries, and greater long-term stability.
Election districts with larger populations will tend to have more popular votes and more legislative votes, but no legislator would be able to accumulate too much power.
This system is fully proportional maintains geographic representation.
JR – Exact PR was mentioned long ago.
Districts = 2 [rural] – 6 [urban] times votes at last guv election –
ie 1 or more local govts or part of 1 local govt — SOME stability in districts.
Perhaps 5 Members per district- Condorcet math
—
Meantime —
Pre-election candidate rank order lists of other candidates
— coalition math for last marginal seats.
PR RATIO math —- Total Votes / Total Members = RATIO
Cross over district line votes –
Surplus winner votes down
Lowest loser votes up
@DR,
Why should there be a fixed number of legislators per district?
108 House districts.
Wayne 17, Oakland 15, Macomb 9, Kent 7, Washtenaw, Genesee 4, Ottawa, Ingham, Kalamazoo 3, Livingston, Saginaw, Muskegon, St. Clair, Berrien, Monroe, Jackson 2, Eaton, Calhoun, Allegan, Grand Traverse, Bay, Lenawee, Lapeer, Midland, Clinton, Marquette, Shiwassee, Van Buren, Barry 1.
Remaining 54 smaller counties in 16 multi-county districts.
U.P. 3 (+Marquette), Northern L.P. 10 (+Grand Traverse), Thumb 1, Southern Tier 2.
Everyone who runs gets legislative votes equal to popular votes.
All legislators choose 108 representatives who serve in Lansing, day to day work. Other representatives vote on final passage, and other matters such as committee assignments, speaker, etc.
District office provides secretarial services, perhaps monthly public hearing.
Sorry – MOB scenes are FATAL to REAL Democracy —
More/less govt CONTROL of populations.
@DR,
Are you referring to the district public hearings as mob scenes?
You prefer the backrooms in Lansing?