On May 6, Monmouth University Polls released a poll for the presidential election.
See it here. Scroll down to question 31 to see the results. Thanks to Political Wire for the link.
On May 6, Monmouth University Polls released a poll for the presidential election.
See it here. Scroll down to question 31 to see the results. Thanks to Political Wire for the link.
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2020/05/06/amash-unlikely-spoiler-biden-trump-poll-says/111667632/
Amash unlikely to be a spoiler for Biden or Trump, poll says
Emma Kinery, Bloomberg Published 11:21 a.m. ET May 6, 2020 | Updated 11:24 a.m. ET May 6, 2020
Justin Amash’s third-party bid for the White House looks unlikely to be a spoiler for either Joe Biden or Donald Trump in the November election, according to a poll released by Monmouth University on Wednesday.
Biden has support from 47% of registered voters in the poll, Trump has 40% and Amash receives 5%. Amash is a representative from Michigan who left the Republican party in 2018 and is a vocal critic of Trump. He announced his candidacy as a Libertarian Party candidate in late April.
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One more ANTI-DEMOCRACY minority rule LAWLESS TYRANT Prez in 2021 ??? Duh.
How evil danger worthless are the New Age MORON pollsters with their MORON poll questions ???
IE
FAILURE to ask —
Should a USA Prez be chosen DIRECTLY by ALL voters in the USA ???
It’s still early in the election season. Things are fluid at the moment. Justin has plenty of time to build up support.
I thought Dem Repo had written something actually understandable but now I see he just copied and pasted from the Detroit News.
Demo Rep is too lazy to post in complete sentences
Changes in the poll when Amash is included:
-1 Trump (41 to 40)
-3 Biden (50 to 47)
-2 Other (3 to 1)
So Amash hurts Biden more, according to this poll. And perhaps 2% were specifically waiting for Amash or a Libertarian.
The poll is probably correct that Amash hurts Biden more. It’s incorrect to conclude that this means he won’t affect the outcome, both because state by state results could increase his impact and because the race between Trump and Biden is likely to tighten as the general election gets close. Even if it doesn’t, Amash’s support is likely to drop, not rise. Johnson 2016 support was at 11% in March polls, 5% close to the election and 3% in the election itself. That’s pretty typical for any candidate who isn’t seen as likely to be elected, when there’s a competitive race between two leading candidates in a position many people care about, especially top of the ticket.
There were a couple of polls in May 2016 which included Jill Stein and which had Johnson at 4% and 5%. Johnson didn’t hit 10% in a 4 way poll until June 20th, and his peak in 4 way polls was between early July and mid September. He hit 12% (or 13%) once in July, twice in August, and twice in early-mid September.
There isn’t a good timeline for 3 way polls in 2016 because polling companies just stopped doing them for a while. But from the data we have, it looks like Johnson peaked in 3 way polls in July. He hit 12% five times in July, once in June, and never before or after.
Amash might not have a straight line fade from 5% from here to election day. He may rise going into the summer, as Johnson did. And if his rise is a little bit better than Johnson’s and he makes the Presidential debates, then anything can happen.
The only reason Johnson did as well as he did was because he stole fellow Libertarian candidate Nathan Norman’s ideas. Just imagine how well Nathan Norman would have done as the nominee.
Nathan Norman should join forces with Robert Milnes in the Green Party. Together they could accomplish great things.
Nathan Norman would probably be interested if there was a right wing Green Party. The current Green Party is anti-white and pro-invader.
Jesse Ventura would have taken the Green Party in the right direction. The party leaders really screwed up when they rejected him.
Gary Johnson was pretty solidly pro-invader. He must not have stole that idea from Nathan Norman.
He stole the Martian Terraformation plan.
I thought Johnson got that from the 1990 movie Total Recall.
“And if his rise is a little bit better than Johnson’s and he makes the Presidential debates,”
It would have to be a lot better. Johnson’s average was not even halfway to the point of making the debates. Amash will go nowhere near the main debate stage, much like Johnson. He can debate Hawkins and perhaps Blankenship if he so chooses.
Johnson averaged 8.4% in the 5 polls that counted for the first debate. That’s more than halfway. Using the average of the 5 polls that counted, Johnson was at 11.2% in July. So he was 3.8% short and a couple of months early.
It’s conceivable that the US Court of Appeals, DC circuit, will rule that the Commission on Presidential Debates’ rules result in corporate contributions to the Dem and Rep Parties and must be changed. The decision could come out any day now in Level the Playing Field v FEC.
Anyone else here think that “Harold’s” writing style sounds like Paul?
Andy, of course it’s him. Jim is probably him as well.
I am not Paulie and I don’t get the hate for him. He seems like a good guy. And I am sure that saying so will do nothing to persuade you that I am not him, but I don’t care. I was banned from IPR a bunch of times by dL. Paulie unbanned me a few times. Other times I just switched email addresses. I haven’t even bothered reading that site in months, but Paulie was pretty much the only reason to read it at all when I stopped frequenting it.
AFAIK the only people banned from IPR are James Ogle, Robert Milnes, Nathan Norman and the IPR-X collective, Reality Watch, Jim Bell, and Andy Jacobs.
I’m pretty sure you’re not Jim Bell.
Jim Bell, that’s the Assassination Politics guy, right? He spoke at Anarchapulco when I was there in 2018.
No, I am not Jim Bell. But a bit less than a year ago I was no longer able to comment using my primary email address. I switched email address and and resumed commenting without a problem. I figured the first one was blocked. Sometime after, my comments would show up, but disappear after a few hours. Paulie mentioned that someone was erasing them and he was restoring them. That’s what I was thinking of – that he was restoring my comments, not unbanning me. Separately, Paulie has mentioned that dL patrols the comments, so I assume it was him. Then the first problem happened again – I was not able to comment at all. I switched to a 3rd email address and resumed commenting.
Doesn’t matter. It has hardly been worth visiting for a long time now. And a few months ago I changed jobs and picked up a ton of hours, plus some other stuff has come up, so my internet time has dropped by 2/3rds. IPR was always pretty far down my list of sites to visit and now I don’t have time to waste there at all anymore, even on my days off. I’ve also quit updating LPedia and haven’t kept up with any LP election results this year, so those Libertarian Party charts that I make (which, as some of you may remember, Richard Winger linked to once a few years ago) may not have a 2020 iteration.
“Doesn’t matter. It has hardly been worth visiting for a long time now. And a few months ago I changed jobs and picked up a ton of hours, plus some other stuff has come up, so my internet time has dropped by 2/3rds. IPR was always pretty far down my list of sites to visit and now I don’t have time to waste there at all anymore”
Yes, IPR (Independent Political Report) has gone way downhill, which is poetic justice.
It’s recently in the last few weeks went back uphill. Hopefully that process will continue. This is my first comment on this thread under any name, although I don’t usually feed the trolls endless speculation that I’m every name they don’t recognize. Andy, sadly, has become a troll or worse, despite posting under his real first name.
This Jim was never banned at ipr as far as I know, nor do I know why he would be, unless someone mistakenly thought it was Jim Bell again. The disappearing and reappeared comments is a site glitch due to the site owner being cheap and switching to a cheaper hosting package that doesn’t flush cache automatically except maybe once a day. It looks like comments disappear but they’re still there and appear eventually. When I’m online I can also manually flush cache, which is annoying but I do it when I have time.
Andy and the other trolls can keep up their stupid guessing games and assumptions, not that they need my permission or would stop if I ask. Never mind that no one except them cares.
In reality though I don’t keep up with comments here near as much as I do at ipr and now that comments there have picked back up and all the trolls took up residence here I may stop checking any comments here at all. I’m sure Andy, Nathan and milnes will keep guessing I’m every new person who shows up here and otherwise continue to demonstrate why they are no longer welcome at ipr. C’est la vie.
Jim, thanks, I appreciate it. And I also appreciate your charts and hope you’ll find time to do them again at some point.
The reasons the trolls hate me so much is
1. I’ve fed them way too much in the way of responses, a mistake and admitted failing on my part; I’ve gotten somewhat better at ignoring them, which I should do more consistently
2. For a number of years I did most of what little comment policing took place at ipr, and some of them wrongly assume that’s still usually me. Sometimes it still is, but rarely.
They all also seem to have bad attitudes about Jews. I’m about 80 percent Jewish ancestry, although not of the Jewish or any other organized religion, raised mostly secular, and not Jewish according to Jewish religious law since my maternal line is Siberian native.
Does Amash know what Aleppo is?
Ban Demo Rep: There was no reason for Gary Johnson to know about Aleppo. The story was a huge part of cable tv news at the time, but Johnson had better things to do than watch MSNBC, CNN, or Fox.
When the questioner explained that Aleppo is a city in Syria Johnson said that the United States should not have any part in the Syrian Civil War. The abuse heaped on Johnson for not immediately recognizing the name of the Syrian city of Aleppo exposes the stupidity of those mocking Johnson and not Johnson himself.
Gary Johnson was running for President. Part of his job was to stay up on the news. Also, he was sold to the LP as the professional experienced guy with the professional experienced campaign staff. His campaign staff should have been helping him keep up with news developments.
I will say that the “Aleppo” incident was one of the least of the things wrong with the Johnson/Weld campaign.
Yes Andy. This is the same Jim Bell https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Bell
He was too intelligent for the cyberpig to handle and so he got the axe.
Paul “The disappearing and reappeared comments is a site glitch due to the site owner being cheap and switching to a cheaper hosting package that doesn’t flush cache automatically except maybe once a day. It looks like comments disappear but they’re still there and appear eventually. When I’m online I can also manually flush cache, which is annoying but I do it when I have time.”
I’m familiar with that problem. This was an entirely different issue. Doesn’t matter now, though.
I think Paul is right, Jim. dL mistook you for the troll Jim Bell just based on your name alone.