1. Interesting that the R/D parties both gained as well as independents but nearly all of the smaller parties went down

2. Independents went down.

3. The LP share of registered voters only went down by by 0.0018%. That’s basically flat.

   Change from February to July:

   +330,273 Democrat
   +80,346 Republican
   +1,831 Libertarian
   +1,561 Peace and Freedom
   -1,783 American Independent
   -3,704 Green

   Change from October 2018 to July 2020:

   +1,134,428 Democrat
   +283,278 Republican
   +89,910 American Independent
   +28,088 Libertarian
   +21,938 Peace and Freedom
   -9,940 Green

4. @Brandon, I agree. That is counter to the trend in most other states (including Kansas where I live) where the smaller parties and independent/unaffiliated are gaining not just in percentage but in absolute numbers while the R and D registrations in both absolute and as a percentage of the total go down slightly.

   Even more interesting is the not insignificant decline in numbers for the Green Party in both comparisons.

5. Could it be that people who are neither Republicans nor Democrats have given up and simply not registered? Did the total number of registered voters, either absolutely, or as a fraction of total eligible voters declined?

6. How soon before RED Donkey commies wipe out ALL other parties as being enemies of the CA commie people ???

7. It seems strange that reen Party internal drama would have dropped their numbers that badly, but possible.

   Is this the first gain for the Republicans in a long time? Not a lot, but still… There are a lot of conservative independents who want to build the Republicans because of anti-shutdown sentiment.

8. @BL,

   These were voters registering to vote in the March presidential primary. While Richard Winger styles NPP voters as “independent”, they can also be regarded as “indifferent”. They usually don’t vote in primaries. They might say that primaries are for partisans, and they make their decision in November.

   About 5% of NPP voters changed their registration to vote in a presidential primary, but that was only about one 1/3 of the total increase in Democratic and Republican voters. Most of the increase was newly registered voters, who wanted to vote in the presidential primary.

   Generally, between elections, the only people who register are those who update a driver’s license. If there is no imminent election, registering is seen as being of little or no benefit. In a cost-benefit analysis, the benefit is zero, so it does not matter what the cost is or is perceived to be.

   Only before an election particularly a presidential election is there a surge of registrations.

   There was a decline in Green registrations (about 10%). Many Green registrants are soft Greens. They are not party activists. They have never attended a party meeting. They are simply voters who prioritize environmental concerns, and when handed a form didn’t want to check either of the older parties. When given an opportunity to vote in a primary for Barack Obama in 2008 or Bernie Sanders in 2016 or 2020 they will change their affiliation. They’ll probably vote for Hawkins in November.

   There was little change in AI, Libertarian, and P&F registration. While there may be soft Libertarians, they are less inclined to switch in order to vote in a virtually uncontested Republican primary or the Democratic primary.

9. Jim Riley wrote: “Many Green registrants are soft Greens. They are not party activists. They have never attended a party meeting.”

   Well, the same applies much more to registered Democrats and Republicans. I do not agree with your reasoning. The decrease has continued for almost two decades. The following are the registered number of Greens from October of each year (except for 2020 which is from July) taken from the California Secretary of State’s web page:
   2002 155,952
   2004 160,579
   2006 141,451
   2008 118,416
   2010 113,835
   2012 115,034
   2014 110,511
   2016 94,647
   2018 89,517
   2020 79,577
   They have been cut in half and the decline predates Obama and the rise of Sanders. This is not just about switching to vote in recent Democrat Party primaries, something else is going on.

   This is counter to the trend in most states (which allow registration by party) where minor parties are increasing while Democrats and Republicans are decreasing.

10. @EL,

    I did not do a good job of explaining what I meant by soft Green.

    Voters who affiliate with the Democratic or Republican parties do not do so because they believe in republican values or democracy, but rather their perception of those political parties. That perception may not represent reality, and may not actually match an individual’s political beliefs.

    Someone who marks Green, Libertarian, or American Independent will tend to do so because they see themselves as being green, libertarian, or independent. They are not associating with the political party.

    In states where there are primaries for minor parties, these voters are less likely to vote. When there are voter purges, they are more likely to be purged. Republicans and Democrats are more likely to be retained. Republicans are less likely to move. They tend to have higher economic status, be more married, be older, own their own home, etc., These factors increase the likelihood of being a Republican, as well as not moving.

    To see the Green effect, you have to look at intermediate registration totals – which is harder to do in California, easier in states with monthly reporting.

    Green registration was stable between October 2018 and October 2019, five months before the primary. Few were purged, or moved and registered again. But it declined from 90K to 83K in February, one month before the primary. It declined by another 3K by July, but this was most likely before the primary. There might be a small recovery since the primary. Some will change their registration to vote in the Democratic primary, and then switch back.

11. Greens in CA have been in decline ever since Nader 2000. Nader has too as he failed to get on the CA ballot subsequently.

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