At the November 8, 2022 election, Nevada voters passed Question Three, the top-five initiative, with 52.5% of the vote. It does not go into effect unless the voters pass it again in November 2024.
If it had been in effect in 2022, it is almost certain that no minor party candidates would have been on the November ballot for either Governor or U.S. Senator. At the 2022 primaries, there were ten major party candidates for Governor, and twelve for U.S. Senator. Based on what has happened in California 2012-2022, and Washington 2008-2022, the only choices for those two offices in November 2022 would have been five major party members for each office.
The Libertarian making it into the top four in Alaska was entirely on the fluke of the actual fourth place candidate, a Republican who’d done much better even if still rather poorly, dropped out and Bye got bumped up from fifth place with 0.6%. That’s not likely to be a common occurence. As you note, it’s unlikely to happen often even under the top-5 version.
There are broader considerations than just what’s good for minor parties, to be sure. On the merits, this final four/five RCV system is much better than the disastrous failure Top Two has been. It’s arguably worked as advertised in both Palin’s defeat and Murkowski’s win, and also in Maine for Golden’s wins, though it’s arguable if those outcomes would have been different under the old system.
But it’s not the case that it’s good for parties like the LP, Greens, etc. It’s not something that breaks up the two-party system or produces a more multi-party system. And just in general, RCV is no boon for third parties, with or without this top-X jungle primary twist on it. The idea that it substantially bolsters third party vote totals, or makes them more influential, or makes it likelier they’ll win more elections, isn’t true. The only thing that does that is proportional representation and, perhaps at the other extreme on the role of parties, nonpartisan elections.
Not surprised corrupt communist Andy Craig would support fellow corrupt communists like Murkowski and Golden.
Agreed, Andy. Though it’s possible that a truly centrist third party like Forward might benefit; they might nominate candidates like Murkowski in more conservative places and candidates like Yang in more liberal places.
That campaign for Top 5 in 2024 is going to be hated; I findd that requirement of passing twice interesting
Ranked Choice Voting does benefit minor party and independent candidates, but it is not a silver bullet which will propel them to success. It is just one piece of the puzzle.
Ranked choice voting takes forever to count and the wishy-washy milquetoast RINO always wins. It destroys confidence in elections. President Trump calls it “rank choice bullshit” and He is correct.
RCV is a positive, but top-x systems allow the minority of voters who participate in the primary to remove choices from the majority who only vote in the general election.
RCV is a way to rig elections.
Rcv = really cheating votes
Third-party candidates can’t make it to the second round if they don’t yet have enough popular support to do so. If they can’t win with Top Five they’ll do even worse with FPTP. The difference is that Top Five gives them a chance to get exposure in the first round without facing the headwind of being seen as spoilers, which interferes with recruitment.
Minor party candidates for statewide office get no exposure in the first round. The media is completely focused on covering which major party members will get through the primary. We know this from the experience of Washington state 2008 to the present, and California 2011 to the present. And we know it from the experience of Alaska in 2022, in which Libertarians and members of the Alaskan Independence Party were not covered during the primary campaign.