FiveThirtyEight Analysis Debunks the Idea that Libertarians “Spoiled” Past U.S. Senate Elections in Montana

Nathaniel Rakich, an analyst for FiveThirtyEight, here debunks the idea that when Libertarians are on the ballot, that automatically injures Republican nominees. The analysis details with three past Montana U.S. Senate elections.


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FiveThirtyEight Analysis Debunks the Idea that Libertarians “Spoiled” Past U.S. Senate Elections in Montana — 18 Comments

  1. “But here’s the thing: You can’t just assume that every Libertarian voter would have voted Republican if the Libertarian candidate hadn’t been on the ballot; elections don’t work like that.”

    Exactly right. Without ranked choice voting, you just don’t know where Libertarian votes would go, not just in Montana, but everywhere.

    Does anyone suppose that all the votes that went to Gary Johnson in 2016, or Jo Jorgensen in 2020 would have otherwise gone to Trump?

    Seriously?

  2. The problem with Alaska wasn’t ranked choice voting; it was the open top-four primary.

    Anyway, without ranked choice voting, you cannot say for sure where Libertarian voters would transfer heir votes, if at all.

  3. WHO GOT THE VOTES WHEN AK LP LOSERS LOST ???

    SAME IN OTHER REGIMES WITH RCV.

    TOO SMALL OF A SAMPLE ???

  4. Typo: in the last sentence, the word “with” should be omitted, or the sentence should be rewritten as “The article analyzes the three most recent Montana U.S. Senate elections.”

  5. Conservatives get the lion’s share of divide and conquer manipulative fake parties solely designed to split votes. The evil left is much more disciplined. This needs to change. Ranked commie voting just confuses voters and elects commies who then create satanic dictatorships.

  6. Yes, she gets right wing votes solely because of Libertarian label, much like Droopy Johnson and Sloppy Weld. Their voters didn’t know they are nothing like true libertarians such as Augustus Invictus, Chris Cantwell, David Macko, etc

  7. Rank commie voting stinks like rotten meat trash and fresh doggie doo mixed with some alkie puke in an anchorage alleyway during midsummer. It’s a bummer this trash is pushed by trash like Obama the Islamic Unabomber who’s foreign like Osama and down to pimp your mama so without any drama let’s all jump on the train for Trump, reject news that are fake, for VP: KARI LAKE and it would me a mistake to forsake God and to take rights for granted , those with eyes that be slanted are planted among us to take our freedom and end it so we must fight back with racial holy war, solve our problems more finally than we ever did before and be the saviors of the human race ejecting reptile child molesting elites back to outer space and in case they put killer robots and trackers in a jab and call it a vax attack these evil usurpers with Q Anon facts, take out AR 15s to reclaim the American Dream that’s been sold to Red China for fent on a triple beam hear us scream as our bullets terminate yellow menace to the extreme like the VANILLA ice posse or the VANILLA ISIS leave Muslims sleeping with the fishes like all them was Pisces but if we left foreign enemies to their own devices there would be 9-11 every day of the year, we’d all live in fear with nothing to fear and take it in the rear from inferior races with muddy faces and muddy skin pushing garbage to your daughters and enslave them in sin leave them dead in a bin when they go comatose from an overdose of heroin where have you been if you don’t see this on every street in your hood come down from mount Olympus try living with the rest of us there’s crazy bums down here and aggressive panhandlers and illegals out to rob and take all our jobs young people formented into drug zombie mobs and communist lies pushed down all our throats …build a wall, yeah, but let’s build a moat filed with gators and keep them well fed with traitors. Maybe I will tell you more later or maybe not because fauci gates and Biden all want me shot and there’s squads of hired killers out there looking for me , it feels like it’s Germany in 1933 with our backs against the wall and COMMIES ready to mill us all we must make hard choices and lift up our voices and kill or be killed drill or get drilled , fill them with lead or with led get filled , grill or get grilled, will or get willed, have will to power, fire up the showers, fire up the ovens, destroy witches Coven’s, to hell with the devil , be a confederate rebel and vote trump in 2024, trump family forevermore, act like you know the score and act to make America great and represent 1488 it’s not too late to take our country back don’t be another Iraq and lock up Hillary and the deep state wipe them off the map and go take a nap don’t put up with their crap anymore stop being their whore and push them out the copter door just like we did before!!!

  8. Who gets to decide if voters are ignorant? And, what should the remedy be?

    In truth, the voters themselves must take the responsibility for their own choices.

    Caveat Elector: Let the voter beware.

  9. I’ve proposed a variety of objective criteria which would weed out ignorant voters, especially when all the criteria are applied.

  10. Yes, I agree. I don’t know why any sane person thinks voting by mail (postal or electronic) could possibly be secure. There was a sanguine comment by an Oregonian on another topic here today. Let me see if I can find it.

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