My fellow editor, the great Richard Winger, has previously documented the 1948 presidential election vote analysis that indicates that the presence in the race of Henry Wallace of the Progressive Party helped, rather than hurt, the candidacy of Harry S Truman.
In this analysis, Nate Silver casts doubt on the standard analyses of the voting effects of independent and third party candidates and predicts that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.’s presence in the 2024 presidential election will help, not hurt, President Biden.
Thanks to Political Wire for noticing this.
At the end of the day, the only way to point to a spoiler effect is when an incumbent loses like in 2020 or by chance when polling/exit poll data indicates a win that doesn’t happen (like in the 1948 race).
Here are Richard Winger’s post of the subject of the 1948 presidential election.
https://ballot-access.org/2023/06/18/pundits-mistakenly-believe-that-henry-wallace-injured-the-harry-truman-candidacy-in-1948/
He will hurt Biden. See IPRX.
Let’s just let RFK2 on the ballot and find out.
Yes, let’s. Looking forward to Trump landslide victory and second term.
Given the fact that RFK2’s positions on a number of issues don’t fit into the standard US political narrative, I suspect that his impact on the outcome will be similar to that of the LP candidates in 2016 and 2020 elections: unpredictable – especially in the critical swing states.
Third party candidates or not, Trump won’t get 50% of the vote. He never has.
He got more than 50% if you don’t count multiple or ineligible votes.
The 2024 electorate will be different than 2020. A lot of 2020 Biden voters will stay home. Some will switch to Trump or vote third party. Many former non voters will come out for Trump. He will get over 60% and over 40 states.