On October 26, U.S. District Court Judge Steve C. Jones, an Obama appointee, issued a 516-page ruling in Alpha Phi Alpha Fraternity v Raffensperger, n.d., 1:21cv-05339. The decision finds that Georgia’s U.S. House and state legislative districts violate the Voting Rights Act. It gives the legislature until December 8 to draft new plans.

For U.S. House, the new plan must provide one more majority-Black district. For State Senate, two more such districts. For State House, five more such districts. If the legislature does not comply, the court will appoint experts to draw such districts.

The state is virtually certain to appeal. It is likely that the final districts won’t be known until after the start of the petitioning period. Therefore, under several Georgia federal court precedents, the state will need to either extend the petitioning deadline for petitioning, or cut the number of signatures. The petitioning period starts in mid-January 2024.

On appeal, the state will surely argue that (1) there is no private right of action to enforce the Voting Rights Act so the lawsuit is fatally flawed; (2) that only a 3-judge court can make this type of decision; (3) that in any event, Georgia’s current districts do comply with the Voting Rights Act.