Only 5 States Currently Rated as “Toss Up” States in Projected 2024 Electoral Vote One Year Before Election Day

On Monday, November 6, 270towin.com produced this map of projected 2024 Electoral College votes, which is a composite of forecasts from several reputable sources.

This projection estimates that the 2024 presidential election will be close and that there are only five “toss up” states (Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Georgia).

The United States is now the world’s only democracy that elects its President through an indirect voting method, such as the Electoral College, and some of the ill effects of this system can be seen through this map.

Thanks to Taegan Goddard and Political Wire for bringing this to my attention.

 


Comments

Only 5 States Currently Rated as “Toss Up” States in Projected 2024 Electoral Vote One Year Before Election Day — 32 Comments

  1. It is more of a ruling establishment gimmick. They do not care about Democrat vs Republican, they care about swinging the election to the biggest establishment puppet.

  2. The electoral college has the great benefit of confining a close election to a handful of states. No one is likely to get 50%+ of the popular vote. So, IMO, its best to restrict the outcome of a hotly contested election to just a few states, rather than create a massively chaotic outcome by just using the national popular vote. Too many people won’t appreciate the electoral college until it is gone.

  3. “It is more of a ruling establishment gimmick. They do not care about Democrat vs Republican, they care about swinging the election to the biggest establishment puppet.”

    They are only able to make this “gimmick” work because the major parties are so unappealing to such a large segment of the population. No major party is likely to get 50%+ of the popular vote for President, and both Houses of Congress will likely be evenly split, perhaps even again being narrowly controlled by different parties in each House.

  4. People obsess over labels like “democracy”, and what it means, and this clouds their thinking. It’s better to look at the actual election mechanism in an objective way, and consider what results if you use one mechanism, or another.

    The electoral college is a prime example of that. We know from experience that some elections for President are very close, and are often decided by less than 50% of the popular vote. That is a problem for “democracy” If we don’t have an electoral college, how do we resolve the election of a minority President? Past experience has shown that the electoral college resolves this issue quickly and decisively. Of course folks are going to be unhappy. Any election in which a winner gets less than 50% is going to leave most people dissatisfied. But, if you are going to trash the electoral college, you had better have a good solution to this problem.

    Anyway, my quick fix for the electoral college is to allow run-offs in the swing states. No need for a constitutional amendment, or even an interstate compact. Just change the way the election is done in the swing states, if no one gets 50%+

  5. And, consider this: different states have different eligibility requirements. How do you conduct a national popular vote when some states allow ex-cons to vote and others do not? How do you harmonizing voting between states that have different registration and residency requirements to vote?

    And consider this: during the period before the adoption of the amendment to allow women to vote, some states allowed women to vote, while others did not. With the electoral college, this caused no problem. But, what if some states allow 16 year-olds to vote, and others do not; and what if some states allow legal resident immigrants to vote and others do not? How do you count those votes without an electoral college? WITH, the electoral college, there is no problem at all if different states have different voting qualifications.

  6. The “fix” for the electoral college is to 1) go with single elector districts in every state ala Maine and Nebraska, 2) allow the names of the individual electors back on the ballot (since we vote for the electors, not the actual candidates. Ballots used to show the names.), and 3) prohibit the names of the presidential nominees/candidates or any affiliated party designations from being listed along with the electors. This forces the parties themselves to do the work of informing their electorate by way of such things as old fashioned tickets. Uninformed voters can’t just go down the list and look for all of their favorite capital letters or all the “Trump”s, or “Biden”s, etc. It would force an educated electorate.

  7. EC — 1/2 OR LESS VOTES X AREAS HAVING 1/2 +1 EC VOTES = 1/4 OR LESS ELECT/CONTROL

    SINCE 1828 JACKSON

    ZERO LEARNED FROM 1860 MINORITY RULE ELECTION >>> 750,000 DEAD IN 1861-1866
    ABOLISH THE INSANE EC


    NONPARTISAN EXECS/JUDICS. VIA APPV – PENDING CONDORCET = RCV DONE RIGHT

  8. WZ –

    UNIFORM DEFINITION OF ELECTOR-VOTER IN A-L-L OF USA –

    USA CITIZEN 18 + YEARS OLD ON ELECTION DAYS – BE REGISTERED BY 28 DAYS BEFORE E DAYS.

    [ALSO TO HAVE *REPUBLICAN* FORM OF GOVTS IN ALL STATES VIA VOTERS — NOT TYRANT MONARCHS/OLIGARCHS]

  9. EC WAS LAST MINUTE SCHEME AT 1787 TOP SECRET FED CONV —

    A VARIANT OF SCHEME IN 1787 GERMANY AND POLAND TO CHOOSE KINGS.

    REASON ENOUGH TO TRASH IT ASAP

  10. DEMOCRACY = MAJORITY RULE – DIRECT/INDIRECT — NOTHING MORE/LESS

    VS MINORITY RULE OF MONARCHS/OLIGARCHS

    MINDLESS STUFF ABOUT GOOD/BAD LAWS AS A RESULT OF EACH SYSTEM.

    SEE 6,000 PLUS YEARS OF *PEACE/PROGRESS* AND DEATH, SLAVERY, FORN WARS / CIVIL WARS AND DESTRUCTION —

    WHICH SYSTEM HAS PRODUCED WHAT ???

    P-A-T

    ALL TROLL MORONS VOTED TODAY – WHERE POSSIBLE/LEGAL ??? — RASHLY ASSUMING THEY CAN READ A BALLOT.

  11. Someone please go over to Thomas JoAnZs’s house in Detroit and unglue his damn finger from the CAPS LOCK. Thank you.

  12. Thank you Walter. Although, I don’t know what the middlemen electors are for.

    @Bill
    The URL for this page mentions Larry Hogan & No Labels, but the post is about 270-To-Win???

    @Jeff Becker
    Other states can choose to delegate like Nebraska and Maine, or not. And I think you meant that we’re a “federation”.

  13. TOTAL EC GERRYMANDER ??? —

    NON-CONTIGIOUS EC SMD ELECTION AREAS INSIDE EACH STATE ???

    ESP PACK ALL DONKEYS INTO EC GHETTO SMDS ???

    ABOLISH THE ROTTED EVIL EC

    REMEMBER THE DEAD IN 1861-1865 VIA THE 1860 MINORITY RULE EC

    P-A-T

  14. I think the Electoral College is a valuable framework that our Republic’s founders created to help preserve it. I don’t think we should replace it.

  15. Adam, we are a federated republic of republics. US Constitution, Article 4, Section 4: “The United States shall guarantee to every State in this Union a Republican Form of Government, …”

  16. There has only been ONE election for President in which a candidate had a clear MAJORITY (50%+, NOT mere plurality) of the popular vote, and lost the electoral college. That was Hayes-Tilden in 1876.

    In fact, on election night, it appeared that Tilden even had the electoral votes, but they were taken away from him by selective disqualifications.

  17. It’s interesting to note that between the Civil War and World War 1, the South had more electoral power in the federal government, both in the House of Representatives, and in the Electoral College, than before the Civil War, because the freedmen of the South were counted as whole persons, and not 3/5s as slaves. This is why elections were so close in that period.

  18. OP: Fake news. The 2024 election will not be close. Trump will win hugely with way more than 50% of the vote.

    As others pointed out above, the uS was never supposed to be a democracy.

  19. No lube is an anti Trump gimmick. It won’t work. One of two things will happen. The most likely is they will do like American Select in 2012 and decide not to run anyone. The second most likely is that it will backfire on them and help Trump win an even bigger landslide than he would otherwise, just as the evil demon rats fear. Anything else is astronomically unlikely.

  20. The electoral college saved our Republic, and probably human civilization, in both 2000 and 2016. Imagine the horrible nightmare that would have been Algore or Killary Klingon as potus. We would not have survived.

  21. Voters should not be voting on the electors at all. Voters should vote on state legislators. State legislators should vote on presidential elections. Presidential electors, much like Senators, should represent the States, not individual voters.

  22. Rancid commie voting can’t be done right, even if some French surrender monkeys get involved.

    There would have been no dead in the war of Yankee aggression if compensation had been paid. For some reason AZ keeps celebrating unneeded blood being shed and property destroyed, even though compensation would have cost less than war even if we don’t take all the death and destruction of war into account.

  23. The federal government has absolutely zero business dictating to States how to conduct elections. Voting qualifications should be considerably more strict, starting with reintroduction of the safeguards unwisely removed over the years which excluded undesirable voters. That would be a good start at least.

  24. Trashing the electoral college is the dumbest idea. We would be better off trashing the federal government. States are plenty big enough to be independent nations. Even the smallest ones.

  25. AZ should make up his mind whether we’ve had 6,000 years of progress, 6,000 years of rot, or 6,000 years of nothing new under the sun. I see zero historical evidence that pure democracy has ever produced any positive results. If such evidence exists, what is it? A lynch mob is the purest form of democracy.

  26. USSR Today is fake news. Taylor Swift will not be any kind of real factor in the election.

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