This story says Boris Nadezhdin is trying to obtain at least 100,000 valid signatures to be able to run for President of Russia in March. He is an independent who opposes the military action aginst Ukraine. The petition deadline is january 31.
There are already four candidates on the ballot.
Nadezhdin has a running count of his signatures on his website, which I mentioned in your comments on the last article you did about this. There is also significant progress reported on Baburin’s petitions, where he may be just working on validity margin at this point, or perhaps done entirely. The deadline is 31 January Gregorian.
Your article above has incorrect deadline. It is 31st, not 25th. Besides Nadezhdin and Baburin, there are 6 more candidates believed to be petitioning, but no progress reports in their petitions that I have seen.
Just out of honesty, is your sole interest in our presidential election your siding with the criminal coup regime in Kiev? You seemed to have inordinate interest in disqualified joke candidate Duntsova, who was one of 20 or 30 iirc disqualified candidates. Now you seem suddenly quite interested in Nadezhdin, whose candidacy you appeared to not notice before despite my repeat mentions of him and other candidates, because you learned of his criticism of military policy, and ignore other independents
And third party candidates.
Incidentally, Nadezhdin is technically a third party candidate, which is the 100k requirement, not an independent, the 300k requirement.
Also, I forgot Bogdanov, another third party candidate who is done or almost done with petitions. Baburin is also a third party candidate.
Sadly, my “favorite” candidate, Rada Russkikh, a true independent with the 300k requirement, has not reported progress anywhere I have noticed, and I have not come across her petitions while out and about. I’ve been hoping to sign for her, but I won’t go to the length of contacting her alleged campaign, so hopefully they (or perhaps it is just herself) are finding sufficient signers without my autograph, or maybe we’ll find each other yet.
Perhaps if the author read news sources from Russia, and not propaganda outlets from western colonised Kiev, Little Russia, the coverage of Russian elections here would contain fewer errors?
Even jokeapedia contains less erroneous data of election in Russia. Do you read North Korean media to cover the US election?
I thought they needed 300,000 signatures for this. Where did you get the 100,000 figure?
Independents need 300k, third party candidates (fourth party here, at the moment) need 100k. Discussed extensively on every past article here regarding our current year election.
I wish I was qualified to vote for President Putin, but I’m lucky enough to be qualified to vote in the caucus and general election for President Trump.
Smoke signals of the native nations carried the most accurate reports of the elections of the great paleface fathers.
@MaxZ,
On http://nadezhdin.ru there are a list of international cities. It seems somewhat random. For the US: Los Angeles, Philadelphia, and Austin are listed. Any particular reason?
Also for Moscow three neighborhoods are listed, and then “mobile pickers” (Google translate). Are these circulators on the street?
Sorry, messed up the link
@MaxZ,
On http://nadezhdin2024.ru there are a list of international cities. It seems somewhat random. For the US: Los Angeles, Philadelphia, and Austin are listed. Any particular reason?
Also for Moscow three neighborhoods are listed, and then “mobile pickers” (Google translate). Are these circulators on the street?
Little Russia is an anachronism. It’s been Ukraine for a while now.
As I understand it, they have petitions available in various locations, including for citizens abroad, of whom we have a fair number. They have both fixed locations for signing and people who will come to meet eligible signers who express interest, allegedly. They currently report 120k and change signatures collected and have a goal of 150k including the validity margin.
My guess is that those foreign cities are where they have people available who are willing to make themselves available for eligible signers. I doubt they have either the available resources or enough such eligible and interested signers to deploy petitioners strategically in specifically chosen foreign cities.
My prediction of 8 final candidates hasn’t changed. It seems it will be at least 7, with 4 already qualified and 3 with reported totals within reach of goal. 1 out of 5 of those whose running totals I have not seen is somewhat of a guess. I don’t think I’ll be far off at 8.
HOW SOON BEFORE ALL PUTIN OPPONENTS DISAPPEAR IN RUSSIA/ UKRAINE / RED CHINA/ ETC ???
HOW SOON BEFORE THE ONE AND ONLY TROLL MORON ON BAN, AZ, DISAPPEARS??? HOPEFULLY NOT LONG, SINCE HE’S OLDER THAN DIRT !!!
Baburin reports at least 105,000 collected at the 100k requirement.
Bogdanov has at least 90,000 in hand, as well.
The additional 50k Nadezhdin is seeking is due to 2500 maximum accepted per region.
Putin will win big, and so will Trump!
We are support.
Biden’s 250th trimester abortion makes a good point which I completely agree with.
KKK, 2500 is minimum, not maximum, I think.
Maximum, and minimum in 40/75 regions.
Nadezhdin website counter currently at 138k and change. In addition to the ones I mentioned yesterday, Malinkovich, also going for 100k, reports 80k collected. That would make my prognostication of 8 total final on the money, provides all the candidates currently reporting totals make it and none other.
Svirdova is the only one going for the 100k not showing progress reports.
Besides Putin, already verified with more than enough, Batashev and Russkikh are the only ones going for 300k. Neither has reported any progress anyplace I’ve noticed. Maximum candidates would be 11. My prediction remains 8.
Nadezhdin reports 158k collected and continues to accept signatures in 48 regions.
Per article in vedimosti.ru, Baburin had 112k as of yesterday; Malinkovich has 60k verified of 80k; Bogdanov has 52.5k verified of 90k.
We are all looking forward to a huge Putin victory, much as with Trump here in the states.
Russia has better ballot access and more honest vote counting than the U.S.
I wish I could vote for both Putin and Trump. Dual citizens of Russia and the US are lucky in this regard.
Being able to vote for Lukashenko as well is the triple crown!
Belarusian-Russian-American citizens are so lucky!
The propaganda in the US about Russia and its elections is pretty crazy. Our own elections nowadays are much more suspect.
Moscow, the Third Rome!
I am glad Russia allows such a fair and open ballot access process, despite the overwhelming popular support for President Putin and his policies.
We are all rooting for Putin across the oceans.
Six more years!
The people of Russia are lucky to have such an excellent president!
There is a ten day signature checking period.
The support for Putin is strong here!
I’d vote for him.
Mark me down as another vote for Putin, Lukashenko, and Trump!
Putin is even better than Trump!
It’s awe inspiring to see a country like Russia which conducts its elections correctly.
They’re a beacon of hope to those in countries like the US.
Nadezhdin has an update claiming over 183k signatures.
I think Putin has certainly earned another term in office.
It’s heart warming to see all the Putin love on this site.
Russian elections are the best elections.
Nadezhdin currently reports 197k.
I have not seen additional updates on the three others with reported totals mentioned above.
@MaxZ,
Can you explain the 75 regions? What is the difference between “region” and “subject/constituent entity” the collective term for republics, krais, oblasts, cities of federal importance, autonomous oblast, autonomous okrugs.
I understand about the cap of 2500 per region. Since you need 100,000 total, it would be possible but risky to gather 2500 in each of 40 regions. Some may have invalid signatures, etc. And you would probably gather some extra in some regions. On Nadezhdin’s website it says they are still collecting in 51 regions, which would suggest in 24 regions they have plenty, and no reason to collect an excess.
75 was a typo. 89 is the correct number of federal subjects or regions. 40 need 2500 each valid, at which point extras in those regions are superfluous. I interpret 51 the same way, but since 75 was erroneous, 38 have more than sufficient.
Also, above, where you mentioned three Moscow neighborhoods, they are actually cities in Moscow region. If you click on any city, it gives you detailed information.
@MaxZ,
If you click on “Regions” on the top of Nadezhdin’s website, it shows the number of signatures collected in each federal subject. There are 82 listed. I could not find Chukotka Autonomous Okrug. Maybe it is a typo in the web-coding – would it alphabetize last?
They do not include the 6 disputed subjects in Ukraine.
Some of the regions have extremely small numbers of signatures. Perhaps the Nadezhdin campaign did not have offices everywhere. I assume that you can sign in a location, but your signature is attributed to your place of domicile. What does a “sorted” signature mean?
How are signatures collected in Russia? In the US they are typically collected in scrawly signatures that make it hard to check. Do you have to register to vote, or do you use an internal passport that has your domicile, and is updated if you move?
The foreign locations seem to come and go, depending on volunteers, though it appears they are now closed. Washington was right where _you_ would expect it, between Valencia, Vienna, and Vilnius. Do you pronounce it with a ‘V’ sound? You probably don’t use the implied ‘R’ in the first syllable.
The “Washington” location was in the Arlngton, VA library, where you were directed to go to the second floor, over by the windows.
Was there a distribution requirement for independent candidates? What is the party qualification standard, that permits a candidate to get 100,000 signatures.
I don’t see the same version of the website you do. When I click on regions, I see listings of where signatures are being collected, and some which say they are no longer being collected. I do not see any listing of how many have been collected per region. I see Chukotka at the end, which is where it is in Cyrillic. I might check the English language version of the site to see if it shows something different. Or perhaps the non-mobile version.
Perhaps Nadezhdin did not collect in the areas liberated from Ukraine because he supports Ukraine’s claims there, or perhaps because he has no support in those areas.
Sorted means grouped by region.
Your signature is attributed to domicile. It goes by internal passport.
There is a scrawled signature and hand printed information that is used for verification.
Washington is pronounced with V sound, since there is no W. I’m not aware of an implied R in Washington, either in English or Russian.
I believe there’s a geographic distribution for independents. However, I’m not an expert on this.
There’s a party registration process, which if I’m not mistaken also involves signature gathering. I would expect that this has to be concluded some time in advance of presidential petitions.
I looked it up and, yes, there’s a geographic distribution for independents. 7500 per region vs 2500 for party candidates. Otherwise the same.
I should perhaps add, in Russian Washington is typically pronounced with emphasis on the last syllable, unlike in English. And, you’ve jogged my memory, as to the implied R in some regional varieties of English pronunciation of Washington.
@MaxZ,
I messed up. Click on “Signatures” Подписи at the top of the page. I am using Google translate on the Russian Version of the web site. I only count 82 bars.
I like the system used in Australia. Party members must be formal members of your organization. To qualify a party has to submit a partial membership roster in electronic form. Only 1500 members are needed, but only a small surplus may be submitted. Perhaps 1650(?). Australia has mandatory registration, so it is relatively easy to check. If a person has a common name, they may check for a residence match. If a unique name they will do some additional searching in case someone has moved without updating their registration.
They then take a random sample and contact the voter/member. If you needed 1500 and submitted 1510, they are likely going to check every member. If you submit 1650, then a sample of 50 is 99% likely to have at least 1500 members.
wash (pr. worsh) is something you do with your hands. wash (pr. wawsh) is a dry creek bed. Washington (Worshingt’n) is the capital city named for George Washington (pr. Wawshingtun)
I see. I think they don’t list regions for which they have zero.
If I’m not mistaken, party registration does take a certain level of membership. I’m not sure off hand the exact procedure, and it has been revised a number of times.
In Russian, it’s pronounced more like vuhsheenTAWN. I don’t really know why we do that, any more than I know why you think Moskva has anything to do with a cow or puhREE is PAHrees etc.
Malinkovich now reports over 105k, as does Baburin. Bogdanov hasn’t reported an update since 90k, but given how long ago that was, he certainly has over 100k as well.
Nadezhdin reports over 200k.
Chukotka has now made the board, albeit with only 6 signatures. My guess is they were most likely collected elsewhere.
He also now reports over 156k sorted.
Thanks for the info Max. In your opinion, do any have a real chance against Putin?
I would expect no. The President is popular, and the opposition is divided. Personally, I’m happier with the President than at any past election, although I’m still hoping a joke candidate qualifies. Rada Russkikh would fit the bill. Unfortunately, I’ve seen no indication of her making signature progress.
MaxZ,
There are now 32 regions with more than 2500 signatures, with 125,284 sorted signatures collectively. This would mean they have 45,284 excess signatures. With 159,217 sorted signatures that only leaves a margin of about 14,000 signatures.
Would Отсортировано be used in ordinary spoken Russian? I had interpreted the word “sort(ed)” in a computer context, such as is used in Excel, where it means to be ordered by some criteria such as being alphabetized, or ordered by magnitude. But it is also used in common use, such as sorting clothes.
Why have Leningrad and Sverdlovsk Oblasts not been renamed?
How was citizenship determined in post-Soviet times? Was there a sense of republican citizenship under the USSR.
Does Rada Russkikh remind you of Leonid Brezhnev in appearance?
Baburin submitted 100,000 signatures and promptly withdrew, lowering my projection of eventual candidates to 7. My guess is he did not qualify by regions.
Svirdova has admitted she did not have 100,000 and withdrew.
Sadly, Russkikh admitted she did not have enough signatures and her effort wasn’t serious.
They are claiming over 200k overall signatures (sorted and unsorted), so there’s still margin.
Otsortirovano is a normal Russian word, yes.
I don’t know why regions have not been renamed.
More in a bit.
Baburin blamed the West and endorsed Putin, but with 102k signatures, it seems unlikely he would have qualified by regions.
With the withdrawal of Russkikh, who vows to be back in six and twelve years, Batashev is the only independent (300k threshold) potentially still in the race, but no updates on his numbers have been provided either.
Citizenship in Russia / ex USSR is a somewhat complicated question. We had both USSR citizenship and Russian and other Soviet Republic citizenship. After Soviet times, Russia faced a large number of requests for citizenship from citizens of other former Soviet republics, which were granted. At this point, it’s probably much less automatic, like requests for citizenship from other foreign countries. I think there’s an easement for those with proof of history of Russian or Soviet citizenship. You might find a more precise answer through the consulate or research.
Rada Russkikh reminds me of an extra in a film about the Mongol invasion, perhaps a cavalryman shown at some point being speared atop a horse during a battle scene.
See
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_citizenship_law
Nadezhdin has a downward revised signature count which I don’t yet understand. Possibly it means nearly half the signatures were disqualified.
That revision of the website and attending map have been taken down, so perhaps it was a hack or programming error.
Meanwhile, Bogdanov has also withdrawn with what sounds like a spurious excuse for not having qualified by regions. Unlike Baburin, he’s not endorsing anyone. He claims ostensibly to have just discovered a European Union based bank account is still open, which he was unable to verify until now, so he doesn’t want to waste the election officials time checking his signatures.
Provided this report is correct, it reduces my projection of candidates to 6, or a maximum of 7 if Batashev had been sitting on a hoard of 300k, including regional distribution, and just not reported it (very unlikely).
The first poll of the year has been released by Russian Field:
Putin 62,2%
Nadezhdin 7,8%
Kharitonov 3,3%
Slutsky 2,9%
Davankov 1,0%
Others 2,5%
Undecided 7,8%
Abstention 14,8%
Contrast 2018 results:
Putin 77,5%
Grudinin 11,9% (KPRF, Kharitonov now)
Zhirinovsky 5,7% (LDPR, Slutsky now)
Sobchak 1,7% (Civic Initiative, Nadezhdin now)
Yavlinsky 1,1% (sitting out this time)
Titov 0,8% (merger with Davankov’s party)
Suraykin 0,7% (Malinkovich now)
Baburin 0,7%
1,1% invalid/blank, 67,5% turnout.
Direct link to poll Max referred to with additional data included:
https://t.me/grazhdan_in_ru/583
Batashev has basically zero support, so I’d say he’s certainly out.
We the People support President Putin!
Signature period conclude. Checking is to be finish 10 February. Good luck to Nadezhdin.
It is interesting that they are only permitted to submit 105,000 signatures.
I believe that the title on the first page changed from 110,590 Signatures Sorted to 110,590 Signatures Selected
Nadezhdin had 34 regions with more than 2500 signatures sorted. That would be a maximum of 85,000 acceptable signatures from those regions. If you turn in exactly 2500 signatures you risk some being invalid. If you turn in more than 2500 you risk some being wasted.
The other 49 regions had around 33,000 total. Only 11 had so many as 1000 sorted signatures. This could be from having small populations, or a more rural population (someone in a city would find it easier to get to a collection center). It could also indicate regional support.
Curiously, Tatarstan was Nadezhdin’s best region with a massive late outpouring of support.
If you turn in 85,000 from the 2500+ regions, you can turn in 20,000 from these 33,000 signatures. But overall they would expect lower quality. That is, if you have 5000 signatures from a region, the 2500 “best” should be very good.
Limiting the number of submitted signatures enables sampling to be used when the petition is checked.
With 105,000 submitted signatures, no more than 5000 (4.76%) may be invalid.
In a sample of 1000, if there are 24 or fewer invalid signatures, then it is 99.99% certain that there are 100,000 valid signatures. If there are 70 or more invalid signatures in the sample, then it is 99.99% certain that there are less than 100,000 signatures.
If there are between 25 and 69 invalid signatures, the sample can be expanded.