On September 3, USA Today/Suffolk released a presidential poll of likely voters that includes the nominees of the Democratic, Republican, Justice for All, Green, and Libertarian nominees. See it here. Scroll down to item ten.
On September 3, USA Today/Suffolk released a presidential poll of likely voters that includes the nominees of the Democratic, Republican, Justice for All, Green, and Libertarian nominees. See it here. Scroll down to item ten.
That’s one screwed up poll. I been aggregating these polls on my own. Trump has consistently done better than both Kamala and Biden amongst independents. Yet this poll suggests that Kamala is getting 55% of the moderate vote while Trump is getting 25%. Jill Stein, Cornel West, and Chase Oliver are all to the left of Trump. There a lot suspect with this poll. “Fabrizio, Lee, & Associates”, Echelon Insights, YouGov/Yahoo News, and the Wall Street Journal polls seem more accurate.
Riffing on Jeff?
1. Per past presidential elections, I find it very hard to believe that Stein, as a Green, is getting almost 2x the vote of Oliver, as a Libertarian, unless all the Mises Mice are staying home. Ditto on West vs Oliver.
2. Methodology? Landline only on phone? Number of callbacks? Calibrating the results for things like that?
Yeah, that’s the other thing. In the 4 polls I mentioned, (plus the Ipsos/ABC News which is also unreliable), Stein and West are averaging at 1%, same as Oliver. There’s no WAY that the Green candidate and a minor 3rd party candidate are going to get the same amount of votes as the Libertarian even if half of the libertarians vote for Trump or for a different 3rd party. Plus, if super Liberal Stein and West are taking 3% of the vote and liberals are only 28.3% of the voters, then there’s no way that Kamala is getting over 47% of the vote when she is pushing Soviet Union price controls.
Any poll that has Kamala winning by 4 points or has Trump earning less than 44% of the vote is just straight up wrong. Trump was averaging 43% against Biden when Kennedy was still at 9%. Trump crushed Biden so hard in the debate that Biden had to drop and then Kennedy endorsed Trump. No one switched from Trump to Kamala after Biden dropped. There has been no huge controversy for Trump since Kamala was switched in. There’s no possible way for Trump to not to be gaining support especially this close to the election. This is the time period for people to start coming home to their “lesser of two evils” candidate.
Tl; Dr “ussr yesterday” is fake news.
The Hamas vote will give Stein a boost. That’s why she is higher. Chase Oliver’s base is child abuse supporters and covid mandates lovers, essentially the same vote as the Democrats and other commie parties.
Hamas supporters for a J*wess? Now I’ve heard everything.
Jeff – Moderates are not the same as independents. One can be a moderate R or moderate D, and third parties, at least in this poll, are lumped in with independents.
This poll has Harris getting 50% of moderates to Trump’s 35%, while among independents (and other than R/D), Harris is leading Trump 41% to 38%.
I find it very believable that Harris leads Trump by 15% among moderates after the Jan 6 insurrection attempt and the immigrant child separation policy. It would be even more if Harris wasn’t pushing such idiotic tax proposals.
Jim is a fucking retard. January 6 was not an insurrection attempt.
HOW MANY JAN 6 CONVICTS WANTING TRUMP MONARCH PARDONS ???
HOW MANY VOTERS LYING TO MORON POLLSTERS — JUST LIKE CANDS LYING TO VOTERS ???
@GazaLayta Stein picked a pro-Palestine black “west African, pro-Palestine activist/expert” as her running mate.
@Jim Civiqs is a heavy leftwing biased website. It says Democrats are 36% of the population while independents are 33% of the population and Republicans are 31%. It has Kamala as being 36% favorable and 58% unfavorable amongst independents while Trump is at 42% Favorable and 52% Unfavorable amongst Independents. Amongst Democrats, Kamala is 92% favorable and 5% unfavorable while Trump is 97% unfavorable and 2% favorable with Democrats. Amongst Republicans, Kamala is 95% unfavorable and 4% favorable while Trump is 88% Favorable and 8% unfavorable.
Multiple the favorable by the % of the population for both: Kamala (36*0.33 + 92*0.36 + 4*0.31 = 46.24%) and Trump: (42*0.33 + 2*0.36 + 88*0.31 = 41.86%). Civiqs says that Kamala has 46% favorability amongst the entire population and Trump has 42% Favorability which matches my averages. Together that is only 88% of the population (assuming no one is favorable or unfavorable to both Trump and Kamala). Around 98% of the population will vote for either Trump or Kamala just like in 2020 since Kennedy dropped out. Assuming the other 10% splits proportionally or evenly between Trump and Kamala, Trump will get a minimum of 46%-47% of the vote by the logic of Civiqs while Kamala would get 52% of the vote at most. Even in the worst case scenario, Trump get 3% more than Suffolk is saying.
On average between the 2016 and 2020 2-way and 4-way polls, the polls were 3 points lower for Trump than reality whereas Hillary and Biden were, on average, 1% lower in the polls than reality. Suffolk said 43%, then the 46% from Civiqs would be correct. However, if you use the aggregate from RCP, it changes. Even compensating for the fact that there’s 4 notable minor candidates in the race instead of the two in 2016 and 2020, worst case scenario is Trump getting 48% of the vote which means Kamala will get 50% of the vote. At most Kamala gets 51% of the vote.
Biden BARELY won when he beat Trump by 4.5% of the vote and Hillary lost when she beat Trump by 2.1% of the vote. Even the RCP average has Trump at 46.2% right now and Kamala is at 48.1%. If the polls are just as wrong this year as they were in 2016 and 2020, Trump is getting 48.9% of the vote and Kamala is also getting 48.9%. If Trump and Kamala TIE in the amount of votes they get, Trump wins in an electoral landslide. Despite winning by 4.5%, Biden only won by 65,009 votes (0.041% of the votes cast) split between Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Nebraska’s 2nd District. In the 4 closest races (Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania), Biden only won by 123,473 votes (0.078% of the votes cast).
In 2016, between Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, Trump won that election by 77,744 votes (0.057% of the votes cast) despite Hillary being up 2.1% in the vote countrywide. By that logic, for Kamala to win, she would need to win at least 3 states by 1 vote (Georgia, Arizona, and Pennsylvania for example). At minimum, doing the math, Kamala needs to win the election by, at minimum, 3.0% of the vote. Going back to the RCP average, Trump is getting 48% at his minimum and Kamala is getting 51% at her maximum. Hillary was up 3.9% in the polls this far into the election and was up 3.2% in the polls on election day. She lost. Biden was up 7.2% in the polls both this far into the election and on election day. He barely won. Doing the math again, Kamala needs to be up by at least 4.7% in the polls to be winning this election. She’s only up by 1.9% which is worse than Hillary’s polls.
TL:DR, even at the VERY WORST possible estimate for Trump, Kamala wins this election by less than 1,000 votes in 3 key swing states. That is NOT the position to be in before the debates.
The George Floyd riots were an insurrection attempt. Hundreds to thousands killed.
The Trump indictments were an insurrection attempt.
“Hydroxy-chloroquine Gate” were an insurrection attempt.
Millions of votes for Biden being trucked in overnight, while millions of Trump votes were somehow “lost”, was an insurrection.
January 6th was a “mostly peaceful” protest. Two dead: Ashli Babbit murdered when Michael Byrd began randomly shooting into the crowd; morbidly obese Brian Sicknick killed by a blood clot resulting from poor life choices.
One of Trump’s biggest failures was not supporting the Jan 6 martyrs and confessors, who had supported him against the election fraud. He did nothing to improve the integrity of the 2024 elections over the 2020 ones. And he couldn’t even be bothered to join Marjorie Taylor-Greene, Paul Gosar and James Comer in visiting the political prisoners indefinitely held without trial for demanding election integrity.
GazaLayta Stein picked a pro-Palestine black “west African, pro-Palestine activist/expert” as her running mate.
^^
So what? Would Jews vote for Hitler if he had a Jew running mate? Would Jews and negroes vote for David Duke based on his running mate? Would Nazi sympathizers vote for a Jew if the running mate was Rudolf Hess?
Hamas supporters voting for a Jew, a woman, and especially a Jew woman is rather implausible.
Was for the bulk of your comment, your calculations aren’t related to how mist people actually decide whether or how to vote.
https://babylonbee.com/january6
Ayo, dis gon be gud.
What language was that?
Google translate has no suggestions.